“…when the nasty economic fundamentals KICK IN during the second half of 2020 and into 2021, I believe we are going to see a severe…”
With Mexico finally releasing its mine supply data for April, the top two silver producers saw their combined silver output decline by 53%. To give you an idea of the amount of lost silver mine supply from Mexico and Peru, it was more than all the global gold production that month. Actually, it was 1.5 months worth of world gold mine output.
According to Mexico’s INEGI, silver output in April fell to 301 metric tons (mt) compared to 500 mt in March. This turned out to be a 40% decline, less than my forecast of 60-70% loss in production.
It seems as if Mexico may have shut down a smaller number of silver mines than Peru. Peru’s Ministry of Mines and Energy reported a 74% decline in the country’s silver production in April:
However, if we combine both countries, total silver output in April from Mexico and Peru was down 432 mt, or nearly 14 million oz. I believe we are going to see similar figures for May.
While Mexico didn’t show as much of a decline as Peru, the combined silver production loss in April from these two leading countries more than surpasses world gold mine supply:
Mexico & Peru vs. Global Gold Production In April
Mexico & Peru April Silver Production loss = 432 metric tons.
World Estimated April Gold Production = 265 metric tons.
In a previous Youtube video, Global Meltdown Major Impact On Silver Investment & Market, I estimated that Peru would eventually lose 22 million oz of silver mine supply while Mexico would curtail 31 million oz.
Currently, Peru lost 10.8 million oz, and Mexico cut 6.4 million oz of silver production for part of March and all of April. If they show approximately the same figures for May, these two countries will have lost 30-32 million oz of silver output, less than the 50 million oz that I forecasted in April.
For whatever reason, Mexico didn’t shut down as many silver mines as Peru. I know many silver producers such as Pan American Silver, Endeavour Silver, First Majestic, and Fortuna Silver temporarily shut all their silver mines in Mexico. However, I did not see Fresnillo PLC announce any closures, and they are the largest silver producers in Mexico. Just last year, Fresnillo PLC produced 54.6 million oz of silver or nearly 30% of Mexico’s total mine supply in 2019.
Regardless, I imagine other silver mines around the world were also shut down during April and May. So, we still may see 40-50 million oz worth of global silver output lost during these two months.
Lastly, when the nasty economic fundamentals KICK IN during the second half of 2020 and into 2021, I believe we are going to see a severe reduction in global economic activity. Thus, demand for base metals such as copper, zinc, and lead will decline. This will be the second impact on world silver mine supply as 55% comes as a result of by-product base metal mining.
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