Where Are We At This Stage Of The Gold & Silver Trade (SPOILER: Silver Headed To $11.41/oz)?

Silver bulls will have a hard time with this one, and the outlook isn’t any better for 2019 either. Here’s trader Glenn West and his Elliott Wave analysis…

by Glenn West (follow Glenn on Twitter) of West Pacific Trading Analytics

Been many months since I have been here to discuss the ongoing in Gold and Silver.

So few even care what a modeler of the future is seeing in his tealeaves and instead most prefer to read hyperbole.  Perhaps I should write in the same style and be at the top of the list each week writing pure BS.  But that is not my style as I prefer to be professional, this site needs a bit of that.  Remember one thing, our entire future rests hidden in the models of the market, everything.  And even more so today in this era of AI and Algos.

For instance, The Dollar.  What if I told you the Dollar stays supported until January 2020, it trades in a range up into just under 100.  A Dollar doing that is not going to benefit a Gold and Silver rally.  But what if I told you the Dollar then reverses and into 2029 loses 42% of its value.  What will that do for the price of your Gold and Silver?   Yes your rally shall be born, but what about 2019?

Not just that, most things will increase in price including stocks and many commodities as well.   It will be a fight to keep up with inflation and meanwhile you are losing near 5% of your purchasing power per year going out into that 2029 date. And we most likely are not just going into a recession,  more likely a depression – where we go into a recession, come out and go back into it again.

And where does the Dollar go after that, if you only knew – I call it the ‘Death of the Dollar’ but that rests beyond 2029.

In finishing, rest assured Gold is going to $9472 an ounce into 2030, would you even believe it?  First we have one last corrective wave down in 2019.  It will be a ‘back up the truck moment’ and the trade of the year for GOLD in 2021.

So for all the hyperbole, save yourself some time, shut it out and only read what is important.

It is a ‘Long Road Ahead’.

Now let’s talk Gold and Silver…

GOLD:

-This is the final wave of the 2 that began on the high back in 2011.  You can see in

the Oscillator we are now in the C wave.  We suffered a ‘fifth wave failure’ on that double top on the B.  We have completed two waves and are not heading into the third of this wave 3 down and it will be big.   This is a parabola crash wall, Money Flow is showing the crack is starting.  Yen is rolling over and leading Gold down.

-A priorty model I call ‘The Stream’ has reached focus and remains bearish across all models.  Primary Trend Wave remains bearish off the top.

-Still pushing up into the 2, 1270 into 1291and if they really push it 1325 area.

SILVER: 

-Silver is heading into a low of 11.41 to complete the pattern.  It is not something I would trade in 2019 and there is zero money to be made here.

-This will be the trade of the year in 2021 as coming out of that low should be explosive and we will revisit the later next year.

Silver at fair value while gold is at a big premium at current prices:

 

-In this Oscillator you can see Silver is at fair value while Gold sits at one of the largest price premiums 3 years.  Not a place to be long and this oscillator confirms the first model.

-Silver is at fair value, still it will be heading lower next year but only a few more dollars lower.

NYXBT Bitcoin:

-A bonus chart.  Everyone is getting headfaked out by this trade because everyone is looking for an ABC.  That is fine if this wave 2 was a simple wave and it is not, that will be reserved for the wave 4 in the future.  This is a complex wave and these often see 5 wave structures within the ABC.

-We hit that low at 3026, bounce into January to 5166 and everyone loaded to the gills thinking the low is in and it is not.  Then we fade into April and hit the low at 2366, everyone will be screaming ‘The End Of Bitcoin’ – back up the truck.

-DO NOT BE CAUGHT in the trap, a warning from West.

WestPacific Market Analytics [email protected]

-We publish the weekly WestPacific Weekly Market Forecaster Newsletter.

-Also a members Twitter page  with daily stock updates, trading models and more.

Visit our free site as well, where we share a model or two that is key to the trade ongoing in the week ahead.  We discuss much about the ongoing trade in Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium from time to time.  https://twitter.com/wstpacglenn

All The Best,

West

  1. Burnett – Editor/WestPacific Market Analytics– Weekly Forecaster

No part of this publication may be re-transmitted or reproduced w/out the editor’s written consent.

Copyright 2018 / WestPacific Market Analytics

**These charts and updates are for educational and entertainment purposes only.**

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 Editor G. Burnett                             Copyright 2018 WestPacific Market Analytics                         Page 4 of 20