SD Outlook: Thanks cartel for gifting stackers with physical silver that hasn’t been this cheap in four years. Here’s the outlook for Thanksgiving week…
This Thursday is Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving in advance.
I’m thankful for many things, and while I won’t go down my list, I will say one group that is on it – the cartel.
By continuing to beat the snot out of silver and gold, they have allowed us stackers to get in a great prices – really the sweet spot between spot price and premium, of which, the spot price is stupid dirt cheap, and the premiums are still low. If spot prices stay this low much longer, or if prices head even lower, then we would want to be on the lookout for premium creep.
For now, however, it’s easy stackin’.
Those who are upset and frustrated with the prices of gold and silver here in late 2018, to those who got in somewhere between, say for silver, $25 and $40, understand that silver will go up in price, that it’s only a question of time.That said, this is a great opportunity to “dollar cost average” down, and word has it, there are going to be some awesome Black Friday sales on bullion.
For that one reason alone, I almost see the cartel backing-off and allowing price to rise, because fundamentally speaking, if there are good sales this year, and if the spot price is very low, stackers could take advantage and scarf up as much of the shiny phyzz as possible, and, by extension, risk a supply disruption that would surely give the cartel a headache they don’t want going into the holidays.
Let’s put this into perspective, and when we do, we see the outlook is good for adding to that stack.
Think about the last couple of years –
- Black Friday 2017 Silver Spot Price – $17.01
- Black Friday 2016 Silver Spot Price – $16.52
Even when silver was bottoming in 2015, check this out –
- Black Friday 2015 Silver Spot Price – Silver ranged from $13.98 – 14.06 that day
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, the spot price in 2015 was lower than what it is now, so how this year giving us the best deal in years?”.
Good point and good question.
You see, in late 2015, there were shortages on product, and premiums were very high. Remember that sometimes I throw up that screenshot from late September, 2015, to show the $6.49 premium over spot for generic, average circulated 90% silver?
So in 2015, silver in-hand actually cost more than it does right now, due to premium creep
Therefore, assuming silver stays at $14.30ish, this will be the cheapest Black Friday silver has seen in four full years, going back to the December, 2015 bottom.
You don’t think the cartel is both aware, and, more importantly, worried?
We will be seeing some housing data early on in the week:
That’s several data points to assess the situation of the housing market.
Finishing out the week is, well, yeah:
A whole lot of nothing.
Come Wednesday, most people will already be thinking about the holiday. Markets will be closed on Thursday, and many people, well, at least those with posh jobs, will be off of work on Friday too.
So what do I think, fundamentally, will happen to gold & silver?
This week, I think the cartel, for the reason I argued above, will want to keep prices from falling this week.
I, for one, am looking forward to the sales and the opportunity to by silver at the cheapest price in four years!
Overnight, gold & silver went down the escalator, and back up it:
I’m liking the fact that the heavier volume overnight and into this morning was on the buy side.
Gold looks set to open above its 50-day moving average:
The technicals could even shape up and turn bullish as we move through the week.
Silver looks a little weaker to open the week:
It will be interesting to see if silver can get a break-out back above its 50-day moving average.
Those thinking about making a Black Friday bullion purchase, here’s what the gold to silver ratio is telling us to buy:
Of course, the GSR has been screaming “buy silver” from the rooftops for months now, and even before screaming it, the GSR was shouting it.
I try to diversify my portfolio with 70% silver and 30% gold, but when the ratio is above 75, all purchases I make will be silver, regardless of my own personal ratio with my very humble, modest stack. I also diversify withing gold and silver, but that’s a story for another day.
Platinum looks decent to open the week:
Platinum is completely above its 50-day moving average.
Palladium has been on fire:
At the rate palladium is going, we could be at a new record-high again this week.
Especially if I’m right about the cartel letting the metals rise somewhat, or at least not letting them fall, so as to mitigate any potential supply concerns.
The commodities are looking mixed to open the week.
Copper is up slightly overnight and this morning:
Copper is up over 9% off of its lows.
Crude oil looks to be opening down to start the week:
Crude oil may still not be done plunging.
Will Black Friday turn into a Red Friday for the stock market?
The last month and a half has not been kind to the S&P 500:
SPX is still down below its 200-day moving average.
This week should be an interesting one.
Of course, we had that huge move down in yield over the course of last week:
As the stock market seems to be hyper-sensitive to yields, especially any time the 10-Year Note rises above 3.2%, we’ll be watching the bond market closely this week.
Also, in tandem with the stock market, will be the volatility index:
So the VIX will be another fun one to watch this week as well.
Especially for those who aren’t in the paper markets, but rather, are simply curious onlookers.
Finally, the dollar looks like It could resume its fall this week:
Which would be bullish for gold & silver.
Granted, if the cartel wants to prop the dollar and keep gold & silver stagnating where they are, that’s fine by me.
Especially since we’re in the sweet spot between spot price and premium.
Bottom line: I’m thankful to the cartel for gifting us such cheap precious metal.
In silver, we may add to our stacks at the lowest prices in four years.
So keep it coming, all week long.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.