SD Friday Wrap: Don’t be surprised to see a gap-up in the silver price on Sunday. There’s a very specific reason why it could just happen…
Editor’s Note: These charts were set-up shortly after 12:00 p.m. EST on Friday, August 2nd, 2019.
You wouldn’t know it if you weren’t a chart watcher, but gold hit multi-year highs at 6:00 p.m. EST on Thursday evening:
Of course, pressure was applied to gold throughout the evening, but gold’s refusal to submit goes to show just how much gold is ready to break-out.
If you ever want to know the exact time, and I mean right down to the micro-mini-nano-second, that pressure is applied, then hit-up Stevie over at Treasury and he’ll be happy to let you know, for he may be a 3rd-rate, slightly lower than BBB- hollywood special effects producer, but he can man-handle that mouse to click the sell-button to naked-short the snot out of some gold to blow through the stops like no other.
SPOILER ALERT: It’s an auto-clicker, and it’s been controlled remotely since before Stevie got there, although they do let him physically click the mouse from time to time.
Lately, at times I’ve been using multiple gold & silver charts in the same post, and this just goes to show how much excitement there is in these markets right now.
I think gold is ready for a break-out.
Over the past month, I’ve seen a nice equilibrium between the number gold & silver bullish price calls versus the number of gold & silver bearish price calls from analysts, experts, gurus, traders and the like, so there is a nice balance right now between the bulls and the bears, which is another way of saying the market, fundamentally speaking, is healthy.
To borrow a line from President Trump, “firing on all cylindars!”.
Er, wait, was that something the President said?
Seems like it to me.
I did say “ready for a break-out”?
Oh yeah I did.
Seems like it to me.
Silver has been lagging gold over the past couple of days:
There’s that classic, “when gold moves lower, silver overshoots gold to the downside”, and it is good news for the silver bulls to see this.
Well, if we’re going to rally here, and I think we are going to rally here, then silver is about to really start taking off.
I think we could see a gap-up in the silver price on Sunday as the markets open, so keep on reading to find out why!
The gold-to-silver ratio has tagged 90:
As of just before 1:00 p.m. EST on Friday, with a gold price of $1458 and a silver price of $16.27, I’m calculating the real-time GSR at 89.62.
What does this say about silver right now?
We are in a brief pause before silver really starts moving to the upside and moving fast, and because of the cartel’s generosity for allowing us to stack even more metal at artificial & unsustainably low prices, the gold-to-silver ratio has given all willing and able stackers an awesome, albeit tiny in my opinion, window of opportunity to buy silver extra cheap.
I don’t think the silver price stays below $17 for long.
The cartel has done their best to paint doom on silver’s daily chart:
I mean, I guess if you were a 4-year old making your way through a “haunted house” built for preschoolers, than yes, silver’s daily chart is kinda scary looking, but if you’re a normal person like me, then…
Does that even make sense?
We build haunted houses to scare preschoolers, and we tell them it’s just make-believe, yet we also tell them that Santa Claus is real?
That’s kinda messed-up!
You thought it didn’t make sense that I was calling myself a normal person.
And I digress.
Normal is as normal’s not.
But let us not veer off track here.
I think $16 will hold, and I’m looking for a quick run to break-through $17 to the upside.
In my opinion, silver still has a crap-ton of catching-up to do to gold.
Gold’s daily chart is looking spectacular:
Although I don’t think the cartel will take too kindly to gold breaking-out above $1500 pretty soon, maybe even next week.
So what is going on with gold & silver right now, and why did they look to be falling mid-week, only to reverse sharply?
A lot of it has to do with what is called the “fear trade”, which others also call “putting on a hedge against uncertainty”.
There sure is a lot of uncertainty in the United States and around the globe right now, and none of it is really any good.
- The Middle East is a hot mess.
- The threat of nuclear war with Russia spiked, big time, with the ripping-up of the INF Treaty.
- There are social, political and geopolitical problems in Asia, including current events with China and North Korea.
- The “markets” are in chaos, and Trump’s Tweets now supposedly can swing the markets quite wildly.
- The US Economy on paper is “strong”, but in reality, Average Deplorable knows better.
I could go on and on and on and on, but I’ll stop there.
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, all of those things are happening, but how exactly are you sure this is the “fear trade” and that it’s legit, and how do you know that what we’re seeing in gold & silver isn’t just a simple, minor short-squeeze?”.
The commodities are getting hammered.
That’s one way I’m sure.
Let’s begin with two commodities that are also precious metals.
Palladium has really taken it on the chin:
I have not been thinking this was a double-top, and I was wrong, but I do not think palladium’s weakness lasts for long because if we’re entering an inflationary or stagflationary environment, which I think we are entering, and if the dollar is about to start its managed descent lower, which I think the dollar is about to start, then palladium will be turning around very soon.
Platinum has had a rough go of it this week, being both a commodity and a precious metal:
Once the markets understand that not only is high inflation for real, but it’s about to start running rampant, platinum will catch a really nice bid, and if silver does what I think it’s going to do beginning on Sunday, then platinum could turn the corner and make that quick run to $920 possibly even next week.
Forget taking in on the chin, copper was taken behind the woodshed this week:
Not quite 52-week lows, but if we do move lower from here, I think it’s short-lived and more likely a bear trap than another crash in copper prices.
Remember: I think that as part of a way to “de-dollarize”, nations will begin stockpiling things that do not degrade, spoil, or otherwise need fancy storage, and I see nations doing that with copper, from poorer nations that would get much more bang for their buck stacking the base metal, to even China if this trade war escalates even further and China starts dumping US Treasuries to go buy not just gold, but also copper, to help counterbalance the inevitable sharp rise in gold prices due to the increased central bank gold buying.
They are, after all, still on one heck of a massive gold buying frenzy, and it hasn’t even really begun!
The only thing that’s missing for gold & silver to deliver the fatal blow to the evil, corrupt and fraudulent gold & silver paper pricing scam of the cartel is an increase in retail buying.
John Q. Public, however, is not full of fear.
John Q. Public is either still drunk on the Kool-Aid, or devoid of excess cash to protect thyself.
Crude oil was making a run to $60 but consequently came back down to a 55-handle:
Crude oil will be one of the first commodities that signals the arrival of the massive inflation.
My overall point is that gold & silver are rallying or holding their own while the rest of the commodities are having a rough time of it, and that is one indication that people are buying gold & silver based on fear.
But wait, there’s more!
There is more proof the fear trade is on!
Check-out yield on the 10-Year Note:
Surprised by the plummet?
I talked about it on Wednesday during our live show, about how there is and will be continued pressure to the downside on yields, but because my memory is blown and it might have been after the live-stream connection was dropped and we were inevitably were forced into a Part II, me discussing the bond markets in general, and the US bond market specifically, can be found right here.
You see, rates can never be “normalized”, and in my opinion, the bond market is just going to blow-up, but if people rush into the “safety” (they’re actually not safe) of US government debt, casting the market manipulation aside for a moment, that puts a turbo-charger to the already present downward pressure on yields.
In other words, all of this is to be expected.
The US dollar, in my opinion, is in a “bull trap”:
Still, the move over the past week in the dollar is further proof the fear trade is on.
Well, everything that happened this week is super dollar bearish with regards to the calls for more massive money printing, calls for a weaker dollar, the actual slashing of interest rates, and the like, including Fed policy and Trump’s Tweets, yet the dollar surged this week?
Why is that?
Again, it has to do with the misguided belief that the US dollar is a “safe haven asset”.
It once was.
It is no longer.
This is very important to understand so let me say it again: The US dollar is not safe, but it looks on the chart as if there was a fearful dash into the dollar this week.
I’ve been looking for the VIX to perk-up:
I think this is only the beginning of the spiking volatility, especially if I’m right about the Deep State Globalists bringing economic misery and financial ruin to the masses in general, and to Americans specifically.
The stock market sure does look scary-scary:
I think the bottom could really fall out of the mainstream markets beginning next week, stock market included, you know, just as we approach the start of the new school year, because why would you not want parents super stressed-out and stressing-out their kids just as they’re heading back to school, all because of the fast increasing economic misery, financial ruin and market chaos which is now or nearly now blindsiding the vast majority of Americans?
What’s the bottom line as we find ourselves on this beautiful first Friday of August?
The cartel has granted us a very small window of opportunity with silver.
I guess the “eye of the hurricane” analogy is appropriate here.
Because the fear trade has definitely started with gold.
Silver, however, is what the cartel fears the most.
So silver has lagged, but not for much longer.
I think we’re about to see real fireworks.
Which means blowing by fifty bucks.
I have not said this in a while.
I really need to say it now.
If you’re willing & able.
Then now’s the time.
Silver dirt cheap.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.