It’s essential to understand where you are in the overall long-term cycle…
Tom welcomes Patrick Karim, who is a proprietary capital manager, and Chris Vermeulen, the founder of Technical Traders Ltd., back to the program.
Patrick brings us several charts to review, beginning with a comparison of USD/Swiss Franc contrasted with gold. There is a cyclical 16-year pattern, and by all indications, we are early into this cycle. Chris discusses how stochastic indicators often show a long-term power zone over longer timeframes.
The Canadian and Australian dollar charts appear to be gradually strengthening, likely due to support from the coming commodity bull market. Both have broken out of their descending trendline after their March lows. Silver has broken out in both currencies.
Patrick discusses why it’s essential to understand where you are in the overall long-term cycle. He charts treasury returns in terms of real yields and outlines why yields seem to be heading lower.
Chris discusses how the general populace has yet to realize their loss of purchasing power. The economy is relatively weak, and at some point, there will be a panic. He also explains the significance of moving average death crosses and their usefulness in determining if one is overextended.
They evaluate the outlook for gold and make some predictions. Chris expects gold to eventually reach a mania phase like what occurred with bitcoin. We are currently nowhere near those adoption levels since equities have had such a strong run that most investors have yet to consider diversifying.
Patrick discusses the VIX and why a downtrend is bullish for gold and silver. If we have a market crash, gold and silver will probably get pulled down along with everything else due to the liquidity crunch. Metals will then outperform once central banks overreact. In the long-term, metals are going to be the place to be.
Time Stamp References:
0:55 – USD vs Swiss Franc and Gold
5:30 – Canada vs US Dollar
10:00 – Australia dollar vs USD
12:00 – Treasuries in real terms.
16:50 – Silver in Australian Dollars
21:00 – Silver cycles in Canadian Dollar
22:50 – Gold monthly log chart and target.
35:40 – Gold daily chart and support levels.
38:55 – VIX, fear, and the S&P