SD Friday Wrap: Did we just get THE break-out in silver that we’ve been looking for?
What a weird day.
I woke up with the song “Bohemian Rhapsody” in my head.
Only, it went like this –
Is this the break-out,
Is this just fantasy,
Caught in the COMEX,
No escape from the paper thieves
And then my morning got weirder.
A silver DeLorean passed me on the interstate.
For ‘Ol Half Dollar drives all over the United States, and he’s broken all sorts of…uhh…err…records…suffice to say he’s in position to see DeLoreans.
The point is I haven’t seen a DeLorean on the road in years, and I completely forgot how low they sit to the ground, and how surprisingly spunky they seem, but the weird part is that it kind-of gave me goosebumps as it passed me.
What does it all mean?
It probably means I’ve fallen off my rocker again, only this time, it happened while I was sleeping.
Nonetheless, there’s a question that keeps popping-up in my head, and it’s frustrating me.
Is this silver’s break-out?
I keep answering “yes”.
But I answer that with a weird sense of conviction.
You see, we’ve spent so much time sub-$17, and even sub-$16, that not only is it frustrating that I’m getting all excited about $16.50 silver, but there’s that little voice in the back of my head saying “get ready for the hammer”.
And so I don’t want to believe it is the break-out.
Adding to the less than optimal conviction is the frustration with the way the cartel has painted silver’s daily chart:
We punched through resistance yesterday, and then we punched through it again today, and now the white metal is sitting underneath resistance.
That is why this week I’ve been saying we really need to get a close above $16.50 – to eliminate any doubt.
Please allow me to be clear: I do think the cartel has either lost control of the gold & silver markets, or at the very least, they are losing control.
So I do think this break-out is real.
Furthermore, the technicals are nice and bullish on silver’s daily chart above – we’ve got a golden cross coming up in the near-term, and there are two beautiful upward-sloping trend-lines.
Of course, that’s assuming technicals matter.
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, the technicals do matter, and if you were any good at analyzing them, you’d clearly see we’re in a parallel channel, and we’ve reached the upper-end of it, so get ready to move back down into the mid-$15’s and a visit to the lower-end of the channel!”.
Everything is a channel.
Now, if the technicals do matter, well, silver still has a bunch of work left between here and $17.20:
That’s the point Craig Hemke made to me in our most recent interview, and where the silver price is sitting right now, we haven’t even really crossed into no-man’s land just yet.
Although that is one massive candle on the weekly.
And then there’s the plunge in the gold-to-silver ratio:
There are 80’s across the board, and with prices right now at $1426 and $16.20, the ratio is sitting pretty much right at 88 this Friday afternoon.
If it sounds like I’m all over the board in this Friday Wrap, well, it’s because I’m worn-out from trying to stay on top of all the fast-paced action in the markets this week.
Now don’t get me wrong, this was a very important week for silver, and a good week for silver investors.
In fact, check out silver’s performance over the last couple of weeks:
That’s like a 10% move off of the lows, and I see nothing bearish about the 30-minute chart.
So it remains to be seen if silver has broken out.
I will say this, however.
If we can get-above $16.50 next week and stay there, I think we will have said goodbye to a 14-handle.
Additionally, check out the difference between crude oil and copper right now, and think about how it pertains to silver production.
Crude oil has fallen for the last six days in-a-row, despite the escalating geo-political tensions in the Middle East:
Not that the last six days play a major part in the big picture, but, generally speaking, a lower price of oil is good for the mining industry because the miners use a lot of oil to get silver from mine to market, and if the cartel is losing control of the silver market, they’re going to need every little trick they can pull-off right now.
When it comes to copper, the base metal had a pretty decent week:
Since so much of silver production comes as a bi-product of base metal mining, a higher copper price means that more silver will get to market, so again, if the cartel is losing control, which, at a minimum, I think they are, then a higher copper price is something the cartel desperately needs.
Gold is also making the case that the break-out in silver is real:
We’ve breached $1450 this week, so the longer gold consolidates in the $1425 range, the more “catching-up” silver has to do.
So there are so many signs we can point to – the technicals, the relationship with what’s going on in other “markets”, even weird superstitious stuff like getting passed by a silver DeLorean on the interstate today – and they are all saying this is not fantasy, but rather, silver has broken-out.
So we’re sitting pretty good here.
Next week, however, is critical.
I would like to see silver consolidate all next week, but remain above $16, and if silver can do that, we could very well blow right through resistance and take out $17.50 with ease.
Of course, if the situation in the Middle East goes hot this weekend, then all bets could be off, and we could be off to the races with respect to silver’s price.
I’m really liking platinum’s grind:
I would really like to see platinum run to $900 in a hurry, however.
Palladium looks to be in a healthy pull-back:
I still don’t think it’s a double top, and I think we could spend a few days under $1500, but overall, I’m looking for palladium to pivot and run higher.
The US stock market is still making new all-time highs:
I don’t think we’ve seen the melt-up yet, and if I had to speculate on the cartel’s next move, I’d think it would be to just maintain the stock market around these levels because a crashing stock market into the July FOMC would just be a little too obvious, but then again, that’s why they’re called “sheeple”.
The easiest thing in the world to suppress is the VIX, and it’s, well, totally suppressed:
Politicians and central bankers do not have the people’s interests in mind, however, so one of these days, just like our pet water turtle let this one goldfish we put in the turtle’s tank get nice and fat, well, let’s just say the fatter the goldfish, the more horrific the death.
Side note: We have had this turtle for some seven years now.
We’ve had this turtle since it was about the size of a Morgan Dollar, and a few yeas ago we started feeding the turtle live goldfish.
Here’s the thing: The first time we put a goldfish in the tank, even though the turtle never once saw a fish before, the turtle instinctively chased the fish and ate it.
Well, I talk about instincts a lot because I do think instincts matter, and they are about to matter big-time.
In the sense that people do not know about gold & silver right now, I’m saying not to worry because of human instincts.
Instincts will kick-in.
There will come a time when people know what to do, and that “what to do” is going to be a mad scramble into physical gold & physical silver.
You see, the cartel can try to create a lab environment, as the Fed and the government have done when it comes to their dealings with gold & silver, but in the end, we’re talking about human instincts.
And there ain’t no dang lab for that!
Side note to the side note: There is also no such thing as a vegetarian if a person is truly hungry, nor is there discrimination against the meats.
So rest assured: We are only at the very, very, very early stages of what is about to become a full-blown mania with gold & silver prices at multiples of where prices are today.
Friends, stackers and trolls, I apologize in advance for being all over the place in this post.
It just goes to show you how many dynamics are at play in the real world economy and markets, and while the cartel will lose control of silver only after they lose control of everything else, because they fear silver more than they fear anything else, I can say with certainty that the cartel is indeed losing control of everything else.
They will hold-on to their control of silver for dear life.
But they will lose.
Yield on the 10-Year Note looks to be heading lower again:
Nothing has changed, and the cartel will continue pulling on this rubber-band until it snaps, at which point the bond market blows-up, and people have yet to prepare for such an event, so they will be in for more than just a rude awakening.
The US dollar looks ready to start its descent:
Most people are on the wrong side of the dollar.
Most people are on the wrong side of gold.
Most people do not hold any silver.
Don’t be like most other people.
Because for most people.
It will be too late.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.