To nobody’s surprise, silver’s finally got its meaningful “pullback”, but it’s not likely to last long or cut very deep…
I’d like to speak to a few things that, of course, are my own personal experiences, but perhaps will shine some light on why the so-called “V”-shaped recovery is not only a myth, but a bold-faced lie.
I have now officially used half of a tank of gas in my car since March.
To be fair, we have filled up my wife’s Jeep a grand total of two times since March, and now that the “re-opening” is somewhat taking place, we are actually using her vehicle more now, almost daily even, albeit less than 4 miles per day on average.
Here’s the question: Who else is still using way less in fuel (and driving less) as we enter the middle of June?
As we are out-and-about, I see some vehicular traffic, but nowhere near the same level as before, and I see my neighbors at home much more than before.
Sadly, as I make the trip into the closest mid-sized city to me (I live in a small town, the city is about 12 miles north of me), and as I drive around the city streets, the look is much more dire: I see business after business closed, and of the businesses I see open, the vast majority have barely any to no customers at all, with any activity (parked cars, people, etc) appearing to be just the employees, so yeah.
It doesn’t look good on Main Street at all.
And for the deflationists out there, my first haircut in three months now costs, with my 3 dollar tip included, $17, and that is with my military discount (don’t judge, if they’re givin’ it, I’m takin’ it because it really means another dollar in tip for the hair cutter anyway), and while I’ll be honest that with my blown memory (thanks Army), I don’t exactly recall what I was paying for my haircuts before the end of the world as we knew it, but I know it wasn’t anywhere near no dang $17!
I mean, of all the things in life I hate paying for, two that have always been in my top five would be hair cuts and car washes.
But I digress.
I’m pretty sure haircuts prior to Covid-19 ran me on average $14, tip included, so yeah.
Good thing there’s no inflation.
My wife is becoming quite the painter.
She’s painted a bathroom, our master bedroom, a guest bedroom, a foyer, now she’s painting our dining room, and soon she’s going to tackle the kitchen.
Here’s my point with that: Who would have thought that she could teach herself a skill, at home, and that she would actually get pretty darn good at it and also enjoy it?
Which is why I always say gold, silver, and skills.
Granted, it is not free to learn how to paint, because there are paint brushes, rollers, pans, supplies like that blue tape, and the actual paint in-and-of itself isn’t cheap either, and as my luck would have it, as my luck always has it, the paint we buy is the second best paint Lowe’s sells, which means it’s also some of the most expensive paint you can buy.
But I digress.
What’s my point?
My point is that not even three months ago, our painting experience has been a room here and a room there over the years, but just yesterday, Sunday, wifey prepped and primed the entire dining room.
In one single day!
And I replaced a dimmer switch for a lighting unit in less than three minutes, and as I replace more and more ceiling fans from the older style to those more modern ones, I must say, I’m learning some things too!
Side Note: Try not to buy the gimmicky ceiling fans with the remote, because the Tech in me doesn’t like additional interference that could impact the WIFI in our house, but also because they often times use a stupid, non-standard battery size that is a pain in the butt to find and more expensive than if it just used AAA batteries or something.
Now yes, I’ve bought houses before, and yes, I’ve hired painters in both North Carolina and Texas before, so I think I’m qualified to say that if all else fails, why heck, my wife has a brand new skill that could produce income!
And that is exactly my point here: This is learning to adapt to the new reality of the new economy.
In other words, don’t sit on the couch binge-watching Netflix, but rather, go do something that could turn into an income stream, and if it doesn’t turn into an income stream, at least it saves a ton of money because my wife is providing all of the labor herself, so it really comes down to the cost of the paint and other consumables (i.e. blue painter’s tape).
There were other random things I was going to mention about the realities of this new economy that we all find ourselves adapting to, but I didn’t realize I had so much to say about those subjects until I started typing, so I’ll cut this outlook off right there.
Silver’s in a flash sale:
I don’t think this “correction” last long, or cuts very deep.
Besides, it’s probably barely affecting the price for real, physical metal anyway when taking premiums into consideration.
It’s only affecting people’s “positions” if they’re gambling in the rigged casino known as Wall Street.
But I digress.
The Paper gold-to-silver ratio is starting the week at, call it, 100:
More importantly, the current state of the gold-to-silver ratio can be thought of in this way: We had been following the tight range of 110-115 for many weeks, and then silver made its move, and not only did the GSR fall below 100, but the GSR fell below 95, in a matter of just a couple weeks, and now, with the GSR at 100, we can call that a healthy pullback in the ratio as gold continues to consolidate over time while silver pulls-back and mildly corrects over price.
If you don’t quite understand what all of that means, here’s the take-away: Buy silver.
Gold sure has built one heck of a base at $1700:
I’m looking for the next leg-up any day now.
Which means we’re getting closer and closer to parity with palladium again:
Could it be that gold reaching parity with palladium is what it will take for palladium to start moving again?
Just like with silver, I’m not expecting platinum’s “correction” to cut very deep into price:
Also like with silver, and gold, I’m expecting platinum to begin its next leg-up any day now.
That is to say, especially with silver, if you blink, you may miss the correction.
I’m in popcorn-munching mode with crude oil:
Break-out fake-out to fill in the gap, followed by a plunge to new lows?
Not if copper is telling us the era of inflation is here:
The epic Wall of Worry continues.
Speaking of worry, we could be getting some excitement back into the stock market:
Of course, people who don’t gamble in rigged casinos don’t have to worry about that at all.
I’m sure there are some newly discovered geniuses out there in the financial mainstream who are talking about support at the February high:
The question is, will the market riggers step-in to make it happen?
Yield on the 10-Year Note is starting the week at an interesting place on the chart at 0.699%:
If the stock market isn’t done crashing, however, yield is not done falling.
The dead-cat-bounce in the US Dollar Index could already be over:
Of course, short-term strength in the dollar combined with short-term weakness in silver is a stacker’s friend, so if silver can be found at a decent price, there is no doubt silver is in a window of opportunity right now, and it’s a window which is likely to close very soon.
The bottom line as we find ourselves here this beautiful Monday in mid-June?
When driving around, getting haircuts, fast food or whatever, it’s obvious.
There will not be a “V”-shaped recovery at all, we’re still collapsing.
Because I don’t see how so many businesses can make it now.
When everyone’s broke, jobless, or saving cash if they can.
What people need to do is save in silver, in my opinion.
The government and the Fed will kill the US dollar.
People who don’t know this will get wiped out.
For now, remember, it’s also about “skills”.
I’m about to sell 15 or so computers.
Cleaned, refurbished, & snappy!
Because I have those skills.
People have demand.
So find your skill.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.