SD Friday Wrap: With gold, palladium, platinum and silver hacking up the cartel’s plans, the MSM may just want to close their eyes right about now…
Sure enough, gold and silver were the slashers this Friday the 13th…
As soon as the data releases hit the tape this morning, gold and silver caught a nice bid and the dollar dropped:
The volume was nice in both metals:
And both metals managed to go out on the highs:
Last week was all about gold and silver doing just what we needed and nothing more. Recall that what we needed was to see the gold price come down some to silver and the silver price come up in relation to gold. And that is exactly what we got.
If we look in terms of the GSR, we can see that the trend continued this week:
The Gold-to-Silver Ratio now shows that it costs less than 75 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Said differently, Silver has been outperforming gold for days now.
We are now seeing the uber-bullish “golden cross” in the moving averages:
If it holds, technical traders will know what that means. In technical analysis, that means the price is going up. The 50-day moving average is now higher than the 200-day moving average.
Silver has solidly put in a nice higher-low on the weekly:
That is one massively bullish candle that formed on the weekly this week. And The volume is very nice compared to the last couple of years.
Since the BLS Jobs Report (NFP), silver is up over a buck:
Not much monkey hammering either on the 15 minute chart. The smashing has gone on since early September, and with Chinese markets open back up, it would be expected to rise on the week. In addition, there was a scramble for silver from 8:30 a.m. EST on. IT is good to see the white metal show that boost in volume at the end of the week. Are the shorts getting nervous? There certainly are enough powder kegs with fuses lit, and any one of them could go off over the weekend.
We are not, however, in the “all-clear”: Recall that daily silver chart above? The one with the golden cross? The problem, albeit small, is that silver has now gone up for the last six days straight. Granted, we could get the moonshot at any time, but nothing goes up every single day in a row. Depending what happens over the weekend, however, we might be changing our tune on Monday.
Since we pulled it up for an earlier post, here’s a monthly of silver going back 20 years:
That chart is looking very bullish as the months have gone by. We have are putting in that third higher-low on the monthly, in route to our second higher-high. It is getting harder and harder for anybody to make the case that these metals are not in the ongoing, albeit drawn out, start of their new super bull market.
Staying zoomed out, here’s gold’s monthly going back 20 years:
Same thing. There are three long-term higher-lows and we are setting up, like in silver, to see a second higher-high.
On a monthly chart, each candlestick represents the futures market price action over one month. On a weekly chart, each candle represents one week’s worth of price action.
Here’s gold on the daily where each candlestick represents one day of gold price action:
BAM! Gold has punched right through the 50-day moving average today. That is a bullish sign. moving averages matter because traders make short and long term decisions off of them. Moving averages are also key components of market sentiment. If everything is going down, it is hard to get excited about the price action. And when break-outs or break-downs happen, we can look to the charts for indications of what is going on with the technicals.
Speaking of technicals, check out this 15 minute chart of gold:
Oh, that’s a good one. That there is a sweet “bull flag” that has formed on the chart over the course of this trading day. Bull flags indicate price is going up. Check out that volume spike at 8:30 a.m. too. Nice to see volume like that because it is on the bid side. But that is not in one minute. Just like all other charts, Your time-frame is your guide. That chart is a 15 minute chart, so each “tick” represents price over 15 minutes.
For more about the data releases today, which included the CPI (inflation) and Retail Sales, check out the post we launched shortly after the spike.
Palladium is rocking:
Palladium is set to re-test those highs any day now. The surge over the last several trading days as been impressive. But for that matter, the price action is all of the precious metals has been what we have been looking for and waiting for. We had a feeling it was coming this week.
Platinum is looking just as bullish:
The rounded bottom since the brutal September price take-down is confirming the bull market signals are back. It is not oversold on the RSI, and the MACD is turning up. It is not in all-out super spike mode either, but rather, taking things in stride. Platinum has been weak, in fact, in an official correction, but it looks poised to run right back up to those moving averages shortly.
Copper has been riding its 50-day moving average over the last couple of weeks, but this week, price action confirms the surge:
If there is anything right now that is climbing a wall of worry it surely is copper. Many analysts believe it is a speculative bubble from China, or perhaps a “Trump Reflation Trade” holdout, but the more copper climbs, the less those bears will be proclaiming the “B” word. Ill Frankness, the signals are not showing “speculative bubble”. Sure, copper is now getting into “overbought” territory on the RSI, and the MACD looks to be peaking, but we could be setting up for consolidation around the $3.10 area, so we shall see.
If there is one thing that’s causing more confusion than anything else, it is crude oil:
Since the end of September, the price action is anything but predictable. A case could be made for an inverse head and shoulders, but on the left side of the chart, there isn’t a steep decline in the necessary time-frame. A case could also be made that crude is carving out a consolidating bottom, and that could be the case, but since the end of September, WTI has round tripped all the way to “unchanged”.
Granted, the price action in crude is the inverse of the price action in the dollar:
There’s a chart we haven’t thrown up in a while. That is the US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY). When it is moving down, the dollar is weakening against the yen. Said differently, when the direction is down, the yen is strengthening against the dollar. From the looks of that chart, it sure does look like the dollar is weakening against the yen. And recall that the yen is often called the “carry trade” currency, meaning it is a driver for moving markets around because “traders” sell dollars for yen and then use the yen in the markets. Argentina was quite frank about his when it became known that Argentina had leased 11 tons of gold to the U.K. for, among other things, working the dollar/yen carry trade.
But back to the dollar in general, a weakening dollar in times of all this “geo-political tension” should be alarming, even if it is slowly turning over, it seems like if it was indeed a safe haven that the dollar would be strengthening because of, oh, say, aircraft carriers steaming towards North Korea and escalating tensions with Iran.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note got clobbered today:
It’s quite possible there has been a massive flight to safety in treasuries, but why aren’t we seeing the flight into dollars?
Amazingly, fear is subsiding yet again:
Apparently all of the geo-political tension is a whole lot of “meh”. On a side note, isn’t it curious how consumer sentiment can be like it is just today?
It’s amazing how data sometimes fits the narrative perfectly. The MSM will surely be all over that totally awesome data point as they simply ignore the rest less a minor mention followed by a swift “Nothing to see here, move along”.
And as such, is it any wonder that our last chart is this:
Just ignore the
ominous “muted” volume. Besides, everything is totally awesome. President Trump said so just today:
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 13, 2017
All you have to do is forget that Candidate Trump said this: