SD Midweek Update: Gold & silver are holding steady as expected, but wait until you read what has just been uncovered about the US economy…
There must be a problem with consumer spending. We often hear that America is a 70% consumption-based economy, so buying trinkets from Wal Mart and riblets from Applebee’s is important.
But what if the consumer is tapped out?
No worries, another tax cut is on its way.
But don’t take ‘Ol Half Dollar’s word for it:
Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy! $54, was just $82. Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let’s go lower!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 21, 2018
Well lookie there!
Just in time for Black Friday, a brand new, effective immediately, big tax cut for the American family!
It is what we’re not being told, however, which is the problem.
When I read a Tweet like that, I read that Americans are not only tapped-out, financially, but they can’t even afford $82 oil prices (Brent, my $80 by end of year call is for WTI – Light Sweet Crude). Since Americans are tapped-out, and because oil prices are/were so high, the American consumer, now, at best, gets a couple more dollars to spend at the mall by paying slightly less at the pump, or, at worst, doesn’t have to make quite as many of the critical, “what should I spend my money on today – food, medicine, gas or bills?” choices.
Not everybody, however, is lovin’ the low oil prices. Just ask anybody who works in the American oil patch. Since most Americans don’t work in the oil patch, low oil prices are, broadly speaking, a good thing, but the people who actually produce the energy we burn aren’t seeing it as some super, duper, awesome tax cut.
Those people who’s livelihood comes from the oil patch are seeing it as the President picking and choosing the winners (the American consumer) and losers (those who produce the energy we all need).
But as I have argued all along: Peak Trump is a very strong variety of Kool Aid.
Rant on –
To all of the people who are President Trump supporters, and I’m especially talking about the Deplorables (which I am), the anti-establishment types, those in the alternative media, and generally anybody in the US who is sick of the corruption in Washington and the direction of the nation, I have a question for you –
What would happen with the President’s base if Trump’s DOJ unseals an indictment as they arrest and charge truth-teller Julian Assange?
I think the question is valid.
I mean, how could anybody stand for freedom, liberty, exposing the corruption in banking, politics, etc, and be supportive about bringing to light all of those things, yet somehow see arresting Assange as a good thing, and not only that, but continue to render the unwavering support of the President?
I don’t know.
I stand by my call that we peaked in my Peak Trump theory with the mid-term elections, and if Assange is arrested, that will confirm the peak for sure because is impossible to be supportive of the President and also be supportive of arresting Julian Assange.
Oh yeah, and there are now less than two weeks remaining n my “put up or shut up” month.
It really is a bad, terrible irony, isn’t it?
Those 60,000+ “sealed indictments” are coming unsealed, one by one, but they aren’t for charging Deep State Traitors, or to “lock her up”, but instead, the indictments are for the purposes of expanding the Deep State, the power and over-reach of government, the totalitarian police state, the mass surveillance, and the tyranny in general.
Just like the wall and the border hardening are designed to keep us in, rather than to keep people out.
I have a really bad feeling about all of this, but it’s like I said – the Kool Aid is strong.
It must be spiked with something.
– Rant off.
Gold and silver are behaving exactly as I expected them to.
Silver is simply churning here:
So far they have kept silver pinned-down under the 50-day moving average for going on four days.
Can silver break-out above the average by the end of the week?
I think so.
The line in the sand for gold seems to be $1225:
It would be nice to see a push to $1240 and beyond.
Could we see that by the end of the week?
I think so, although I think so less than I do for silver.
Part of the reason I think that is because of the gold-to-silver ratio:
There is a breach above 86 again.
Stackers know what that means.
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, I missed your Monday Outlook. Why does the cartel want to keep gold & silver prices right where they are?”.
The cartel wants to keep gold & silver steady because they know, especially for silver (I didn’t run the numbers for gold), that silver is the cheapest it has been for physical silver “in hand” in four Black Friday/Holiday buying seasons.
If they smash the metals lower, they run the real risk of disrupting supply and burning through the stocks in their coffers.
Palladium has pulled-back:
Palladium is one of the few investments that is actually positive on the year.
Platinum is still riding its 50-day moving average:
Which is fine by me because the average is definitely pointing up.
A golden cross is baking in platinum’s oven.
Here’s a look at our tax cut:
And let me point out one more thing about the President’s deception.
Yes it is deception.
Actually, it is yet another one of his bold-faced lies.
In his Tweet embedded above, when President Trump gave the high price of oil, he was giving the price for Brent crude oil, but when he was giving his low price, he was giving the price of Light Sweet Crude oil.
In other words, he has his cake and he gets to eat it.
Brent and Light Sweet Crude (WTI- West Texas Intermediate) are two different types of crude oil.
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, maybe Trump made a mistake. I mean, the low price of Brent can’t be that far off, can it?”.
Well, actually, the price of Brent is over $63 right now, so no, the low price of Brent is not close to the low price of Light Sweet Crude. That’s not some “honest mistake”, and that’s not some minor difference in price either.
It is basically a bold-faced lie intended to deceive any gullible American who may not understand what he is doing.
But then again, since people think I’m some kind of Trump hater, which I’m not, don’t take my word for it.
See for yourself:
I really don’t get it.
Well, I do.
Intoxicated by the Kool Aid.
Why can’t he be straight with the American people?
I mean, I voted for him, and I believed (was duped?) everything he said as a candidate, but when I see what he says, what he does, and what he doesn’t do as the President…
What a shame.
Copper is also riding its 50-day moving average:
I still think copper will not revisit its lows of a few years back.
The world uses a crap-ton of copper. The internet, for the most part, is one huge bail of copper wire, and between all of the destruction by hurricanes and fires, there is demand for copper. On top of that, if we do have this “booming” economy, which I don’t buy, there is demand for copper. If we have a financial collapse, which I do think is coming, then the resulting stimulus, this time around in the fiscal sense, will require a crap-ton of copper for all that “infrastructure spending”, so there will be demand for copper regardless.
Everybody is quick to talk about the downfall of the FANG stocks, so for our stock market chart of the day, let’s check out the “tech heavy” Nasdaq:
Just yesterday, we put in a second lower-low on the chart after the initial drop.
That can’t be good.
Likewise, I don’t think we’ve seen the real spikes in volatility yet:
If past is prologue, the Fed will be looking to walk the VIX back down.
But I don’t think they will this time around.
The Fed is evil at its core, and it does seem like the Fed is trying to “engineer” a “financial soft crash-landing”. I think we have a better chance of finally sending a man to the moon, but hey, the Fed has to seem important, involved, and in control, otherwise they will be seen for the dead weight they are.
At least by those who aren’t brainwashed zombies under the spell of the mainstream media.
Yield on the 10-Year Note keeps falling:
The conventional wisdom is that as the stock market has dropped again, so investors are seeking “safety” in the US bond market.
I personally think it is the cartel in there creating a bid for bonds to not only keep the bull market going, but also to create the illusion of demand since the US needs to sell a crap-ton of debt so that we can spend money that we don’t have on a bloated government.
It works wonders for GDP you know.
Finally, ending with the other “asset” that is positive year-to-date:
I’ve said this before, and I still think that the next big move in the dollar is down, not up.
And we are getting closer and closer to that move as everybody is even more bullish on the dollar now than perhaps in two years.
Thank you for sticking with me and reading my work over the last year and a half.
With the cheapest price of silver in four buying seasons, that turkey tomorrow is going to taste extra delicious.
Just don’t get caught snoozin’ when the bullion deals hit the web.
“Out of stock” is to the slacker stacker as an empty hole in the ground is to the bird who got up late.
And remember: Hitting the “F5” key reloads the page.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.