SD Midweek Update: The “markets” performed as expected coming into Wednesday, but we could see totally different “markets” by week’s end. Here’s why…
On Monday I felt pretty confident that we would see the stock market bounce.
That is exactly what we see:
In my opinion, we are witnessing a short-squeeze induced dead cat bounce. The 50-day moving average is quickly closing in on the 200-day, and we all know what a death cross would mean, at least in the theoretical sense.
Since these are hyper-manipulated markets, theories can be put on hold for some time.
So the question becomes: Do “they” want to bring he markets down?
I think right now, all of “them” want to bring the markets down.
In no particular order:
- The Fed wants to bring the markets down to further enrich the banks trading desks on the downside action
- The Trump Administration wants to bring the markets down to ride in to the rescue
- The globalists want to bring the markets down to enrich themselves with the added bonus of impoverishing the unprepared even more
In times like these, I’m glad I don’t play their (paper) reindeer games.
Assuming they do want the markets to come down, how much more of this short-term stock market rally do we have to go?
We will know soon enough, as today and tomorrow are jam-packed on the economic calendar of events:
From the pre-market hours today until tomorrow afternoon, data and the Fed will be dominant in the markets. In other words, this week could end up being a tale of two-weeks: What happened up until Wednesday, and what happened during the second half of the week.
And that calendar of events doesn’t even include the unknown variables out there, and the effects those variables may have on the markets, such as
- The trade wars
- political and/or geo-political tensions and uncertainties
My point is that while I have been confident in the stock market bounce, the continued weakness in crude oil, and the US dollar at either side of 97, I am in full on spectator mode not knowing how the next couple of days will play out to bring us into the close of the week.
I am starting to think this could be a pivotal week, but we’re just going to have to wait and see. And I’m fine with that. Every time they bring silver down to $14.0X or lower, I’m going to try and add to my very humble and extra modest stack.
I have been saying that yields have room to run before the stock market comes under pressure, but check this out:
Yields have done absolutely nothing. They have neither run, nor fallen. The yield on the 10-Year Note is parked right at 3.05%.
The VIX continues to be supportive of the stock market:
We’re back down under 19 again.
And the dollar is, for now, to the north of 97:
We’ll know soon enough if the dollar can take out its recent highs once again.
The commodities have been mixed.
Copper has fallen somewhat and still dancing with its 50-day moving average:
I still do not think we will be revisiting the lows of a few years back with copper.
Crude oil has bounced somewhat:
But crude oil is really not showing much of any strength right now. Crude oil was so oversold that it was bound to bounce, but look at the now pronounced death cross on crude’s chart.
Gold lost its 50-day moving average yesterday:
Which is something I have been expecting.
And silver was subjected to further beatings both on Monday and on Tuesday:
Which I was not expecting.
I thought gold would have more downside than silver, performance-wise, but I was wrong.
As such, check out the gold to silver ratio:
At 86.99, that’s pretty darn close to 87.
Anybody willing, able, and with enough mental endurance to wait this out will be well rewarded down the line, and that’s just assuming the gold & silver paper markets don’t blow-up.
If the paper markets do blow-up, that reward could come very quick.
Either way, I can out-wait anybody, and the longer the cartel wants to keep silver down here, I will keep on adding to that stack and bringing down my dollar cost average. I really need to calculate that one day. I have no idea where I am right now. I’m somewhere around $17.50, coin in hand on average. I think.
I’d like to take this time to say a word about premiums. People say, “there’s plenty of silver out there”, “there is no supply shortage”, and “all types of silver can be bought all day long”.
All of those things are true, however, I have been cruising around some of the online dealers looking at buybacks, and what I am seeing is that even for generic rounds, dealers are willing to pay more for product. In other words, costs to dealers, anecdotally, are going up, and premiums will surely follow. But don’t take ‘Ol Half Dollar’s word for it – check out some of the various dealers and look at what is being paid for generic rounds.
The vibes I’m getting from the grapevine is that there are more buyers than sellers right now, so it is good to see everybody taking advantage of these low prices. I can only imagine what another push would be like if they smash silver down into the mid-to-upper $13s.
I don’t think the cartel will do that, however, because they have already created the environment where demand is picking up.
Palladium has bounced:
Surely there would be much buzz if palladium approaches $1200 as gold falls toward $1200.
Platinum lost the support of its 50-day yesterday:
Platinum’s 50-day moving average is starting to flat-line.
What is the bottom line?
We saw exactly what we expected to see on Monday and Tuesday.
For the most part.
The rest of the week, however, could bring about entirely different markets.
I’ve got my popcorn at the ready.
It’s getting rather interesting.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.