Is inflation running hot, and will silver be able to reclaim $25?
(by Half Dollar) There is a lot of inflation data coming out this week, and we also get the December Retail Sales Report on Friday.
Some of the reports in the week ahead include, in chronological order of release:
- Consumer Price Index (Inflation)
- Jobless Claims*
- Producer Price Index (Inflation)
- December Retail Sales
- Industrial Production (manufacturing, mining, etc)
Of special note is that market participants will be watching this Thursday’s Jobless Claims Report coming off of last week’s December BLS Jobs Report, which showed a loss of 140,000 jobs on net in December, with nearly half a million jobs lost in the category of “leisure and hospitality” alone.
The question, however, is will silver move higher in price this week?
We’re sitting under $25 right now:
So far, silver is down about 7%, year-to-date.
Gold is down just over 3.5%, year-to-date:
Gold is at an interesting spot on the chart.
The gold-to-silver ratio is back near the mid-70s:
This is the result of silver outperforming gold to the downside.
Palladium is back down in the channel we’ve been following for some time:
Palladium has spent a lot of time riding its 50-day moving average, although the gyrations have been less severe of late.
Of the four precious metals, platinum has fallen the most since its recent spike high on January 1st:
Platinum is down almost 10% from that recent spike.
Crude oil is beginning the week above $50:
Is the price of crude oil signaling inflation?
It could be signaling inflation when looking at other commodities:
Will market participants be greeted with rising producer prices in the government’s inflation statistics this week?
The stock market is almost up to the Fed’s symmetrical inflation target, year-to-date:
It would be interesting to cross reference the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to see if the 2.0% line has been breached with either of those.
After falling all last week, the VIX looks like it may be having an up-day:
Is this some sort of calm before the storm?
Market participants are closely following yield on the 10-Year Note as it pops above 1.0%:
What are we to make of the move in yield off of its major moving average?
The dollar index saw some strength last week:
We’re back above 90.5 on Monday morning.
Thanks for reading,
Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart