SD Outlook: The outlook is not good for either the US stock market or the US dollar, but the outlook is bullish for gold & silver. Here’s why…
There are several threats to US markets this week.
First off, there is the stock market threat. We’re getting into full swing of the share buyback “blackout” period, in which companies are prohibited from buying back their own shares of stock. Recall the whole concept of share buybacks is one of the factors keeping these markets levitated without the need for heavier lifting from the government and the Fed. Needless to say, if whoever wants to keep these markets elevated has the stronger hand, it may not be as much of a big deal, but if the stronger hand this week is held by whoever is planning on bringing these markets down, then we could in fact see the resumption of the decline this week. That said, I do think it begins after new all-time highs if we’re talking about the Dow ($DJI).
Secondly, we have President “Gosh-darn-it-we-do-have-the-best-economy-ever-in-the-history-of-the-United-States-but-the-Fed-needs-to-cut-interest-rates-to-zero-and-start-printing-money-again-anyway” Trump doubling down on being a weak dollar guy. Recall it was barely one month ago when we reported on President Trump turning into a weak dollar guy during his latest flip-flop. The point is that fundamentally speaking, if Trump’s words can move markets, which they can, then as soon as the “markets” come to “understand” Trump intends on weakening the dollar, well, that’s also what Secretary Stevie’s ESF is for, so a weakened dollar it shall be.
Even the market manipulation deniers would have to admit that, with the Democrats turning hard socio-fascist left, and with a dark & corrupt Fed intent on devaluing the US dollar by more than 2.0% per year, this is not good news for people wanting a stronger dollar.
This is, on the other hand, bullish news for gold & silver as they can and do act as anti-stock market and anti-dollar investments.
So lets dive right into the charts (my standard chart format will be brought back on Wednesday, please excuse the look today).
The gold-to-silver ratio is telling those stackers of more humble means where to put all of that regular monthly purchase:
Of course, it’s only telling us if we’re listening for a way to score free gold ounces at the end of the bull run.
I think gold could break-out this week:
If gold does break out, we would paint a higher-high to go along with the higher-low.
Silver may want to pull a platinum and give us an upside surprise this week:
Silver’s chart does not look as good as gold’s with a lower-low instead of a higher-low, but then again, we’re primed for an upside surprise, in part, precisely because of that lower-low.
It will be interesting to watch palladium this week:
If the price action begins to tighten intra-day, I’d be looking for a break-out or a break-down soon, and I tend to see the break-out more than the break-down.
Check out platinum with its upside surprise:
If we also get a break-out in gold & silver this week, it would not be unreasonable to be talking about $1,000 platinum on Friday.
I’m looking for copper to break-out in similar fashion:
Furthermore, if copper has just completed the second shoulder of an inverse head-n-shoulder’s pattern, then $3.30 is the upside target.
Accordingly, I also see the potential of a break-out in crude oil:
While crude has climbed an epic all of worry with such tight trading ranges, we’re overdue for some big up-days in a similar fashion to the big down-days during crude oil’s fourth quarter 2018 sell-off.
I think the stock market gets pushed to a brand new all-time high:
I am looking for all-time highs, and the start of the decline within the span of five trading days of hitting those all-time highs.
I am not, however, privy to the plan.
The plan has been, thus far, to suppress fear in the US markets:
They will flip the switch as they bring-on the pain.
If the DOW is going to new all-time highs, then I’d be looking for rates to rise as that happens:
I do not think the move down in yield was the end of the move down, but rather, I think we will at least re-test those Summer, 2016 lows.
Everybody thinks the dollar is strengthening from here:
I think the dollar begins its decline, if not this week, then very soon, just as all the weak dollar rhetoric begins to take hold, and, after what might very well be a strengthening-euro shocker that nobody is on the look-out for.
What is the bottom line for this week?
Stock market & dollar are at risk.
And they’re at risk of falling.
Gold and silver are ready.
The cartel is sweating.
Spring’s in the air.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.