“…any real breakdown in the markets could be vicious and aggressive at this point.”
As we near the important date of August 19, 2019, and we watch how the markets are reacting based on our earlier predictions, it is becoming evident that the US stock markets and global stock markets are following our predictions very well. The fact that these markets are doing almost exactly what we predicted months ago suggests that our call for an August 19, 2019 breakdown in the US/Global markets should also align with price activity very well.
This Q2 earnings week and the continued shifting of capital withing the global markets are suggesting a couple of things that traders need to be aware of :
_ Quite a bit of capital has already been pulled out of the global markets over the past 60+ days.
_ The US Fed has hinted that a rate decrease may be in the works over the next few months – suggesting that the Fed is more concerned with increasing economic activity than further normalization efforts.
_ China, Asia, and Europe continue to deal with slumping economic activity, demand and output.
_ Deutsche Bank is an unknown factor that could turn into a black-hole for the global banking system
_ Global derivatives activities have decreased tremendously over the past 15+ months.
We suggest that everyone take a few minutes to review these recent research posts to better understand what is actually happening in the US/global markets.
Our belief that the US stock market would continue to push higher while attempting to break key psychological price levels has played out perfectly. The recent Q2 earnings data has accomplished just what we expected – a continued upside price bias with moderate volume. This move has pushed the VIX into a lower basing pattern and we believe the NQ may attempt to rally to levels above $8000 again (after breaching this level on July 16).
The key to everything our predictive modeling systems are suggesting is a “rollover in investor sentiment” that is likely to take place after Q2 earnings data is completed and in the midst of an August (Summer) slump in economic activity. Our predictive modeling systems and cycle analysis tools have suggested that the US markets will find unexpected weakness starting in early August, peaking near August 19 (which is when we expect a breakdown event to occur) and continuing for many months after this move begins.
We believe this downside price move will be associated with some type of external economic impulse – such as a collapsing banking/debt sector in China, news of a hard Brexit taking place, a Deutsche Bank collapse or some type of external event that will prompt this downside price move.
As volatility continues to expand while capital is being pulled out of the markets, this creates a VOID of liquidity when an event like this takes place (similar to what happened during the Flash Crash event). Traders should be very cautious right now because all of the evidence that we’ve been able to find suggest institutional level players have already scaled out of the markets and move into protective investments. Thus, any real breakdown in the markets could be vicious and aggressive at this point.
This Weekly NASDAQ Futures Chart highlights the BLUE ELLIPSE resistance level that price is currently testing. It is our belief that price will run into extreme resistance at this level and roll-over into a downtrend over the next 30+ days. Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a downside target of 7000, 6000 and 5910. The deepest of these levels align almost perfectly with the lows from December 2018 – a -25% price decline.
In the first part of this multi-part technology sector research post, we highlighted our previous research and predictive modeling result that suggest the US and global stock markets are poised for a peak/roll-over within the next 30+ days. Our predictive modeling systems and cycle analysis tools are pointing to August 19, 2019, critical inflection date that we believe will become the “breakdown date” for this next big move to the downside.
Part of our effort to help skilled technical traders is to provide research posts, like these, that highlight trade setups and allow our followers to understand the type of trading opportunities that are present for them to consider in the future. We believe the next 30+ days will prove our predictions are accurate and that the US/Global stock markets will roll-over into a new bearish trend – likely breaking downward near August 19, 2019.
With this in mind, Part II will continue to explore trade setups and opportunities related to our belief that the NQ/Technology Sector will become one of the biggest rotations when this move happens.
NQ/TECS PRICE PREDICTION
Our downside NQ price prediction supports a hedging trade in TECS for skilled technical traders. If our predictions are accurate, then the risk levels for a strategic trade in TECS are only about 10% to 15% from current price levels and the upside profit potential is 12% to 35% (or more). We are actively seeking an entry price near recent lows in TECS (near $11 or lower) over the next 2+ weeks as we watch the US stock market continue to attempt to push to new highs.
TNA, SMALL CAP BULL ETF
The TNA, Small Cap Bull ETF, is often a leader for the US major markets. This Weekly chart highlights the weakness that is found in the Small Caps compared to the NQ chart above. While the NQ chart has continued to push higher, the TNA chart has rolled-over and has weakened substantially from the October to December 2018 rotation. It is our belief that the continued price weakness in the Small Caps will provide a leading price confirmation of the US major markets price rotation downward over the next few weeks and months.
We also believe the Transportation Index (TRAN) will lead the markets lower over the next few weeks and months. Skilled traders must learn to search for these market-leading triggers/signals to stay ahead of the next big price swings.
So, within this article, we’ve highlighted three incredible trading opportunities and setups for skilled technical traders. Each one is aligned to a single event that may happen in the future and each one varies in the price level, scale, and scope for different skill levels of traders. The opportunities for these types of trades in 2019 and 2020 keep setting up over and over again. We believe the next 2 to 3 years are going to continue to create incredible opportunities for us as technical traders. You can become a technical trader with us before Aug 1st if you ack now!
There are dozens of great trades setting up right now in preparation for the August 19 price peak/price rotation that we predicted months ago. The markets are setting up for some really big swing trades and we urge all traders/investors to be prepared for these moves by joining my Wealth Building Newsletter
5 OTHER CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT THE US MARKETS TOPPING AND THE PENDING GOLD AND SILVER BULL MARKET
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic
Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.
His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.
He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven,The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest and dozens of other financial websites.
Disclaimer: This material should not be considered investment advice. Technical Traders Ltd. and its staff are not registered investment advisors. Under no circumstances should any content from websites, articles, videos, seminars, books or emails from Technical Traders Ltd. or its affiliates be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or commodity contract. Our advice is not tailored to the needs of any subscriber so talk with your investment advisor before making trading decisions. Invest at your own risk. I may or may not have positions in any security mentioned at any time and maybe buy sell or hold said security at any time