SD Outlook: Are the markets still just going to shrug off this “flu”, or do they finally get a cold, hard dose of Covid-19 reality?
CNN is reporting that 14 Diamond Princess evacuees have tested positive for coronavirus (Covid-19).
The CDC has yet to update its “Covid-19 in the U.S.” webpage (it’s currently at 15 cases, from February 14th), but all it takes is one other person to test positive in addition to the already confirmed positive 14 evacuees, and the number of confirmed cases will double.
There are still zero cases in Latin America, oddly enough.
I’d like to bring up a few things I haven’t really heard being discussed just yet.
Things that we’re going to have to face sooner or later here in the United States, so we’d better put them on our radar.
After all, these things clearly demonstrate that as Covid-19 spreads across America, society is going to quickly devolve into a hot mess, including ever increasing panic buying, civil unrest, looting, and eventually, total pandemonium.
Case in point – toilet paper.
In Hong Kong, we see that “masked men stole hundreds of rolls of toilet paper”:
— WickedTart (@Wicked_Tart) February 17, 2020
I’m not sure about you, but one bag of toilet paper from Costco contains nearly 50 rolls, so it’s really saying something about the panic buying when three robbers hold-up a truck driver at “knife point” as the reporting above stated.
The significance of this cannot be understated, because aside from the riots over the last year, which are a case study in and of themselves, Hong Kong is generally thought of as a civil place.
Nonetheless, we’re already seeing panic buying in the United States, albeit the panic buying is currently being conducted online.
What happens when there’s panic buying in the streets?
It’s going to get very ugly.
And by ugly I mean violent.
By violent I mean deadly.
Because if people kill each other over a freakin’ Popeye’s Chicken Sandwich in our “booming” economy, that is, the best economy, ever, then what is going to happen when there is panic buying over something even more essential in the midst of an economic collapse with a deadly pandemic thrown in for good fun?
Here’s a look at the already started panic buying online using “sold” and “completed” listings on eBay, where a box of 20 N-95 particulate face masks now regularly sell for over $100:
Either 4 out of 5 people said “give me 20 masks at any price because dang it, I”m going to have a few just in case this thing gets to my area”, or 1 out of 5 is an arbitraging ninja or a sort-by “newly listed” sniper, most likely with scripts written to scan new listings and possibly even auto-purchase if certain parameters are met.
Regardless, right now the panic buying is civil, and product is available online and to the highest bidder, but when essential stuff runs-out or becomes too expensive online, and people must compete in-person at the very resource limited, dying brick-n-mortar stores?
Let’s move on to the panic buying and take it one step darker.
Imagine the empty cities in China.
Not the ghost cities that were built but never inhabited, but rather, Wuhan and other Chinese cities that are currently in quarantine and on lockdown.
How do they look right now?
Like ghost towns as everybody is pretty much inside and very few are on the streets.
Now imagine California.
If you need help imagining California, here’s a little help from just last month:
Question: How do you get people off of the streets where there is a massive homeless population on the streets with nowhere to go?
Follow up question: Is there enough personal protective equipment for dealing with this humanitarian disaster in the making?
Follow up question to the follow up question: How much is it going to cost when a not insignificant percentage of San Francisco’s homeless population, that is, people living on the streets, in tents, in cars, under bridges, or wherever, have various diseases already, especially those brought on by lack of sanitation and hygiene, meaning that if they’re already immunocompromised, there will likely be a higher coronavirus case complication rate among said homeless population?
There are a couple of more points I’d like to make that I haven’t seen others making yet, and I’ll be talking about them on Silver Doctors Live today, so we hope you join us at 11:00 a.m. EST, on our YouTube Channel, and that you even participate in the dialogue!
I saw some article over the weekend about how it’s foolish to think the gold-to-silver ratio can’t go much, much higher:
I think it’s smart to allocate all of one’s monthly physical precious metals purchases to silver right now, especially if one is paying for the silver with gold.
Speaking of gold, the daily chart looks like a break-out is imminent:
If gold breaks and silver does not immediately outperform, in my opinion, that’s even more incentive for the willing and able stacker to buy silver with gold.
Gold may indeed break first, but I don’t think silver lags much at all before outperforming the yellow metal:
All of this panic buying is inflationary, and silver, being the most despised thing in all of the world by the both American Globalists and non-American Globalists alike, is the most perfect hedge for this inflation, sitting here, still, under $18 in early 2020.
Have we kissed goodbye to $14 forever?
What about to $15?
I think we’ve kissed goodbye to $14, and while I’m not so sure about $15, I would find it highly unlikely the cartel could smash silver down to a 15-handle.
In fact, I’m sure for most stackers and other smart investors, any 16-handle would be a back-up-the-truck moment.
However, I think the “consolidation”, “correction”, or “whatever-you-want-to-call-it” is over, and I’m looking for a strong surge to the upside any day now.
I’ve been thinking palladium was going to move down to $2200:
Palladium might have other plans, however, as it looks like we may be attempting to break out of the sideways channel between $2200 and $2400.
Platinum looks like it wants to spring into action here:
Platinum is a great inflationary hedge for more deep-pocketed investors.
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, why do you say platinum will be a great inflationary hedge if demand for platinum will plummet due to the globally synchronized economic depression?”.
Because if the cryptocurrencies showed us one thing, they showed people what money is, and what money isn’t, and platinum has all of the necessary properties to be money, and as such, I think the investment, monetary demand for platinum will be greater than the drop in demand by industry.
Crude oil is showing us some of the inflationary pressures:
We’re about to have the mother of all crude oil gluts, yet the price of crude oil hasn’t plummeted further.
Copper might be stabilizing at $2.60:
Copper’s downside can’t be crazy low because to keep the gold & silver paper “markets” from imploding, copper mines are needed for the purposes of cranking out silver.
One can only laugh at the VIX under 14:
Good thing there’s not a thing in the world that could stoke fear in the markets, that all of the candidates in 2020 election are good sportsmen, and that pixie dust cures coronavirus.
Tech companies don’t need to worry about no dang global supply chain:
I mean, who needs China and their stinkin’ “manufacturing”, right?
If the markets are coming down, however, then so is yield on the 10-Year Note:
We could be at a 14-handle on yield very soon, and I don’t think it takes long to take-out that 2016 low either.
Finally, well, enjoy the strong US dollar as it lasts:
Even if the dollar strengthens from here, if the panic buying really picks up across the globe, and, more importantly, in the United States, the strong dollar will be relative because on net, it could end up buying less as rabid consumers concerned about coronavirus bid up prices.
Bottom line as we find ourselves here this beautiful Monday in mid-February?
For so many reasons, if the risk of a pandemic is real, we’re in trouble.
The US can barely function right now, and “in the best of times”.
It’s going to be quite chaotic when the real fear kicks-in.
I do not want to be anywhere near panic buying.
If you need to buy at that time, it’s too late.
If the risk of pandemic is real, well then.
We need to be proactive about it.
And not be part of the panic.
Panic’s going to be nasty.
Think of Black Friday.
And Black Plague.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.