U.S. Recession Watch: Housing Horrors And Consumer Confidence Carnage

Just as The Fed Offensive is in full force today, we see that the “economic recovery” illusion is becoming harder to maintain in the face of constantly bad data. Here’s two reports today that show just how bad things are getting…

From Zero Hedge:

Housing Horrors Continue: New Home Sales Tumble To Lowest Since 2016

Extending July’s weakness (in new, existing, and pending home sales), August is off to a rough start with existing sales and now new home sales has collapsed (down 3.4% vs expectations of a 2.5% gain). July’s big plunge in sales was revised slightly higher but this left August with a 560k SAAR sales rate – the weakest since Dec 2016.



This is the first back to back decline in new home sales since June 2016.



Bloomberg does note that there may be caveats to this data (aren’t there always?).

While data aren’t available at the state or local level, areas in Texas and Florida affected by Harvey and Irma accounted for about 14 percent of single-family housing units authorized by permits in 2016, the Census Bureau said in a special notice. If no sales information is received by the government, the units’ status is assumed to be unchanged. It may be hard to get a clear read on the market’s underlying trends in the next few months as economic data become volatile thanks to three major hurricanes: Harvey in southeast Texas in late August, Irma in Florida in early September, and Maria in Puerto Rico last week.

On the bright side, Median home prices tumbled…




But finally, as we noted previously, none of this fundamental supply/demand stuff matters…



Record high homebuilder stocks vs weakest macro housing data since Feb 2014.


From Zero Hedge

Consumer Confidence Drops As Americans Lose Faith In The Stock Market

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure for September disappointex expectations with both current and future indices dropping (the former more than the latter).

Differences across regions are very notable as storms impacted confidence…



However, what is most concerning (for the powers-that-be), is the plunge in faith that the stock market will go higher…



This is the lowest confidence in continued stock market gains since the election.