Uncertainty Rising: Politics and Geo-Politics Thrust Taxes and Independence Into Spotlight

The Trump Tax Plan is looking DOA, and Spain is set to arrest the Catalan President if independence is declared. Political uncertainty is filling the air today…

From Bloomberg we see that the Spanish police are set to arrest Catalan President Charles Puigdemont if he declares independence. From Bloomberg:

Spanish police are ready to arrest Catalan President Carles Puigdemont immediately if he declares independence in the regional parliament, according to two people familiar with the government’s plans.

While a final decision on whether to act has not yet been taken, Spain’s National Police force has elite officers deployed in Catalonia who are prepared to join a raid if Catalan police try to shield Puigdemont, said one of the people. If Puigdemont makes a statement that falls short of immediate independence, the government in Madrid may stay its hand.


Interestingly, as if tipping off the machines looking to HFT the news, here’s a word that pops out from the newsfeed for the markets:

The president is likely to use the words “declaration of independence,” but they will probably be qualified or hedged in some way, according to another person familiar with his plans. The Catalan government spokesman declined to comment on Puigdemont’s speech at a press briefing in Barcelona on Tuesday.

 At home, there is uncertainty in tax-cut land. The TTP (Trump Tax Plan) looks DOA. The latest reports shows the Trump administration is shifting the blame on Rand Paul:

The Senate will consider the budget teeing up tax reform in mid-October, and Paul is privately sending signals he’ll vote against it, just as he did on the budget setting up Obamacare repeal in January when he was the lone Republican senator to do so.

Paul said in an interview that he’s undecided on both the budget and the tax plan blueprint but unleashed a torrent of criticism at the tax proposal nonetheless.

“The danger for this bill right now is the pay-for may be a middle-class tax hike. And if that’s that, it’s going to be a real problem,” Paul said. “If you lower the taxes on the rich and lower the taxes on the poor and then say, ‘Oh it’s going to be revenue neutral,’ we’ve got to raise somebody’s taxes to pay for it.”

White House officials are growing frustrated with Paul and view him as obstructing Trump’s agenda. Trump has called Paul repeatedly and told advisers that he will come around on tax reform, officials said. But Paul has shown he has no problem bucking Trump — opposing him not just on health care, but on continuing the war in Afghanistan and making more foreign weapons sales.

Granted, the metals have come under pressure for a month, and last week all of China’s formal markets were closed, but one can only assume that all of this increased uncertainty is not good for the US dollar, and, conversely, it is good for gold and silver:

Though as President Trump re-tweets his daughters stock market pumping, they would like to remind you that they in-fact made America great again:

Finally: