Fundamentals matter if the people understand they are making fundamental decisions or not. The same goes for confidence and risk. Here’s an update…
There are literally thousands of people making a fundamental “flight to safety” by not going to Las Vegas and either staying home or going elsewhere. In other words, in the real world, people are feeling uncertainty and risk, and they are acting with their wallets.
They are not choosing to visit Las Vegas because the risk is too great. Therefore, they are seeking destinations where the risk is lower.
This is much like in the markets. When the bubbles start popping and the Fed and the ESF can no longer maintain the manipulation investors will do a similar flight to safety.
As you will see, the drop in tourism to Las Vegas is rather large. Likewise it is safe to assume that if these people who would have otherwise gone to Las Vegas are going to safer destinations, those destinations would see an increase in tourism. Some will choose not to travel at all, which could be thought of a staying in cash on the sidelines.
The point is that once the flight to safety happens, since the gold market is small and the silver market even smaller, it only takes a very small percentage of individuals choosing to invest in precious metals to really move gold and silver prices higher and force the cartel’s hand, which will have no other choice but to end the precious metals price suppression at best, or let it rise spectacularly at worse (from our perspective).
Here’s an excerpt from Travel Weekly:
The Oct. 1 mass shooting just off the Las Vegas Strip has dealt a substantial blow to air bookings, according to travel data analytics company ForwardKeys.
In the eight weeks before a gunman killed 58 people and injured 546 from the window of his 32nd floor room in the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino, air bookings for Las Vegas were already down 7% for domestic flights and 2% for international flights on a year-over-year basis.
But in the three weeks that followed the shooting, bookings plunged much further, with domestic bookings down 21% and international bookings down 16%, according to ForwardKeys.
“Looking at the current situation, one can only feel sympathy,” said ForwardKeys CEO Olivier Jager. “What has happened to the victims of the shooting is absolutely shocking and tragic. One also feels sorry for all those people who work in Las Vegas too. They are dedicated to showing visitors a good time, and it must be very hard to keep doing that in such awful circumstances.”
Las Vegas flight bookings plunged in major markets around the world and throughout the U.S. in the weeks after the shooting. From New York, for example, bookings were down 29%, compared to a 3% decrease in the weeks before the massacre. From the Asia-Pacific region, bookings were down 10% after the shooting; they were up 10% before the massacre.
The coming months could be tough for Las Vegas tourism. From Nov. 1 through April 30, Las Vegas air bookings are down 14% year over year; bookings were already down 10% before the massacre. Bookings have slowed in every source market, ForwardKeys said, except for Brazil and Australia.
That is just one industry, air travel. Now, amplify that by hotel reservations not made, dollars not spent in casinos and on entertainment, food not eaten and alcohol not drank, and it is having a devastating impact right now on Sin City.
And this is not being said lightly. The Las Vegas Sun has stated that Las Vegas might be the most tourism-dependent city in the United States:
In the report, “The Relative Dependence on Tourism of Major U.S. Economies” by Applied Analysis principal Jeremy Aguero, six indexes measuring the tourism economy were compared among 23 metropolitan statistical areas, including the nation’s 15 largest areas and eight well-known tourism destinations.
The Las Vegas area ranked first, second or third in five of the six comparisons, and in the sixth index, it ranked fourth out of the 23.
Fundamentals matter. Confidence matters. People may not understand why they are making the economic decisions they make, but sooner or later, it clicks.
And when that happens, you’re either on the silver bullet train and the golden rocket ship, or you’re watching it from a distance.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.