SD Outlook: Is the Deep State & globalist plan to NOT have a trade deal with China? Who benefits? What does it mean for the economy & the markets?
The government was “shutdown” near the end of December, 2018 and for most of January, 2019.
As I said back at the time, it would be likely that some data would just not be reported at all, you know, “due to the shutdown”.
We see that is exactly what has been happening.
Furthermore, there are
lies and propaganda data releases that aren’t outright cancelled but are still delayed:
I’ll say it again: It’s March.
Data still behind.
It is funny that HFT algorithms can place millions of electronic orders in mili-seconds, yet after three months the government can’t even figure out how to release a data point even as the government’s data inputs and formulas haven’t changed,
What a sham.
And it’s all too fitting.
As is the continued trade war.
Oceana was always at war with Eastasia.
Please humble me as I play devil’s advocate for a second.
Because I don’t think the markets are ready for a “no deal” trade war.
You see, if the economy is too fragile for President Trump to be appointed a second term, which I think the economy is too fragile, then that means the economy is collapsing this year, but there’s this whole 2020 election circus show going on in Washington, and to look legitimate, the democrats need talking points.
Trump wouldn’t want to play that script.
Tax cuts for the rich?
That’s been known.
They’ll avoid it.
So what are the democrats going to campaign on to give the illusion that the puppet of choice was elected and not selected?
The trade war.
China, yeah, but not just China.
The trade war will be the fuel for Trump’s opponent’s fire.
Market crashes and economic collapse.
The US economy will be collapsing or will have already collapsed, the US markets will be crashing or will have already crashed, and blaming Trump, in part, for his inability to make trade deals with the EU, China, and other nations will be a positive talking point for the democrats because they will have a plan to “resolve” the trade disputes.
In other words, US home values will be plummeting, the US bond and stock markets will be crashing, price inflation will become noticed and increasingly felt, job losses will be mounting, and all those lovely “who could have seen this coming” statements from the “independent” Fed and it’s propagandists in addition to the “this is all Trump’s fault” statements from the democrats, and voila!
You’ve got yourself a one-termer in President Trump,
Since Economic pain and financial misery are about to be served for dinner in America, it all makes sense.
Red Hats who refused to see the US economy & US markets for what they are will get hit with reality.
Red Hats will flip, and they will turn into “anybody but Trump” voters in the 2020 US election.
Not that votes are even counted in our totally corrupt, fraudulent and rigged elections.
But still, there will have been enough propaganda spewed onto public sentiment.
That the illusion of the Red Hats are flipping on Trump becomes believable.
And just like that, President Trump does not get re-elected in 2020.
The United States can begin a new historic chapter.
A chapter that is really dark and very scary.
Because, well, President Trump no more.
Trump was the last hope for “good”.
So we are told by the Red Hats.
But if there is no trade deal?
Democrat talking points.
And a Black Swan.
The ultimate gift that keeps on giving is having a flash sale:
That is one massive topping process in the gold-to-silver ratio.
Gold is set to open below it’s 50-day moving average:
On a percentage basis I think gold has further to correct than silver.
That said, i don’t think this correction cuts much deeper.
Silver is set to open below its 200-day moving average:
I think silver looks good here. Trying to save $0.15 to the downside could end up costing more in the long run.
Well, say silver does drop below $15, and premium is currently about $.65 over spot per ounce for some pre-1965 silver coinage.
Although people have been buying this dip, so supplies are tightening, and premium creep is kicking-in.
Imagine a silver price of $15.15 with 90% silver costing $.65 in premium over spot, but if silver drops below $15, 90% becomes tight, and now the price is $.99 over spot?
See how that works?
You save $.15 on the price of silver.
But you pay $.34 more per ounce in premium.
In other words, we are in the sweet zone right now.
It is hard to get a better deal factoring-in premium creep.
Palladium is consolidating at $1500:
It will be very interesting to see how palladium performs as the other precious metals got clobbered.
Speaking of getting clobbered, platinum looks like it has a date with its 200-day moving average:
The golden cross is close, however.
Copper’s pullback looks healthy at this point:
I think there will be steady buying pressure on copper as it’s cheap, useful, and for industry it would be something nice to stock up on before the hyperinflation of the dollar.
That increased demand by industry as an inflation hedge doesn’t even take into account any increased demand from government infrastructure spending.
So copper could quickly become in high demand for various reasons.
Crude oil’s pattern has now changed to “climbing the wall of worry”:
Sure, if crude oil starts surging in price, the inverse head-n-shoulders pattern could still play out.
I’m thinking it will not play out like that, or at least the pattern will look really ugly on the chart.
I do, however, still think the price of crude oil is going up.
As part of bringing max pain to the United States.
Trump himself said gas prices are tax cuts:
Do you think it’s just luck that gas prices are so low, and falling? Low gas prices are like another Tax Cut!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 1, 2019
Higher gas prices will simply be another thing the President gets blamed for.
The stock market is like 1,000 points from a record high:
What is that, like two days of trading?
We could be there this week.
They’ve ramped the stock market ever since December 26th, 2018.
Why would they not ramp it to record highs at this point?
I think they will.
The ramp-job on the stock market has been helped by an equal and opposite ramping of the VIX:
Drawing the last of the remaining sheeple in as we speak.
The smart money is cashing out of the stock market.
Because if it’s a stock, value can literally vaporize.
And a stock not sold is money not in the bank.
Which means it’s not really money at all
The sheeple are lulled back to sleep.
Their money in stocks will vanish.
The US dollar has been straddling either side of 96 since early October:
I still think the next big move is down in the US dollar.
The experts are now talking about a break-out in yield:
But I still think we have a significant drop.
What’s the bottom line for this week?
Pay attention to major signals.
The government hides them.
MSM propagandizes them.
But we connect the dots.
To get a clear picture.
Of where we stand.
In the US collapse.
Where are we?
Close, I think.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.