Evidence continues to mount that the economy will experience a downturn, but most don’t know exactly when it will happen. The good news is…
In a new survey, about one-third of economists expect the United States to be gripped by a recession by the year 2021. According to a survey published on Monday, 34% percent of economists surveyed by the Nationalist Association for Business Economics said a recession will begin by 2021. That’s a 9-point uptick since February.
The evidence continues to mount that the economy will experience a downturn, although most don’t know exactly when it’ll all happen. The good news is that only 2% of the economists surveyed said a recession will begin this year and 28% said one will begin in 2020. The general consensus appears to be that summer of 2020 will be the major downturn leading to a recession, but again – no one really knows.
According to The Hill, some of the economists surveyed also expressed concern that President Trump‘s tariffs and higher budget deficits could hurt the economy. Trump and his administration officials have been dismissive of widespread warnings of a recession after the increased tariffs imposed on China during an escalating trade war between the two nations. Officials have dismissed claims that those tariffs are hurting American farmers and consumers, maintaining that they only hurt China despite conflicting claims from experts, consumers, and struggling farmers.
“I don’t think we’re having a recession. We’re doing tremendously well,” Trump told reporters Sunday before departing from New Jersey. The mainstream media continues to report that a strong economy is crucial to Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign.
Just 5 percent of the economists surveyed said a comprehensive trade deal would result from the latest round of U.S. and China trade negotiations, the AP reports. Four percent said a superficial agreement is possible and almost 25 percent expected no agreement. According to a report by The Associated Press, trade between the U.S. and China, the two biggest global economies, has plunged. Trump decided last Wednesday to postpone until December 15 tariffs on about 60% of an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to nearly everything the U.S. buys from China.
The 226 economists who were surveyed mainly work for corporations and trade associations. The survey was conducted between July 14 and August 1. That was before the White House announced 10% tariffs on the additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, the Chinese currency dipped below the seven-yuan-to-$1 level for the first time in 11 years and the Trump administration formally labeled China a currency manipulator.