Stocks Surge After Latest Poll Shows Republicans Retaining The House

This is the first poll showing a Republican lead. Here’s why it matters for the stock market…

from Zero Hedge

US equity markets ramped into the green (even Nadaq recovered from its AAPL-beating) as the final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.

A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead.

This is the first poll showing a GOP lead, and it may matter: while often accused of bias, Rasmussen was the only major pollster in 2016 to predict a Trump victory; Rasmussen was also the only major pollster whose prediction was proven correct.

Stocks are suddenly reassured…

With Nasdaq soaring…

… because as SocGen noted earlier, a “Red Wave” outcome (such as the one suggested by the GOP retaining the house), and which also happens to be “the least expected scenario for the market”, would probably trigger a short-lived strong rebound in US equities and a drop in the VIX. Whether or not this result holds into tomorrow night, of course, is another matter.