SD Friday Wrap: Just as everybody begins to second guess their outlooks on the economy and the markets, BAM! Here comes the shocker…
This morning I said to stand-by for a Tweet proclaiming “Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!”.
It looks like I blew yet another call because there was only one “JOBS” in the Tweet, but hey, at least it was written in ALL-CAPS, indicating a little more oomph than just lower case letters would have indicated.
I also get some extra credit for the inclusion of the exclamation point!
But don’t take ‘Ol Half Dollar’s word for it, see for yourself:
GREAT JOBS NUMBERS JUST ANNOUNCED!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 4, 2019
I was close, but I get no cigar.
That’s not what they say.
The proper saying has something to do with “closeness only counts in” something or other.
I can’t remember the saying.
But I do have this random tip for anybody willing to read it: If you ever find yourself inside of a moving vehicle and pulling the pin on a grenade, hold the grenade outside of the window as you’re pulling the pin.
Because, you know, everybody knows that a live grenade rolling around some jagged and raggedy floorboard in a vehicle with a blown suspension on a road that’s not meant for drivin’ is enough to ruin anybody’s day.
I have come to the conclusion that “market participants” are momentarily inebriated from the “booming economy” narrative flowing from today’s spectacular December Jobs Report. Those market participants will learn the hard way, but for now, everybody thinks the worst is over for the stock market.
It is funny because in a twisted, dark humor kind of way, under the surface, the government’s own “GREAT JOBS NUMBERS JUST ANNOUNCED!” show how absolutely dire the current economic reality is for most people.
Americans 20 to 54 years-old actually lost jobs in December:
That chart should be very alarming and very troublesome to anybody looking at it.
If the future of America resides within citizens aged 20 – 54 years, then the future looks beyond bleak. That chart also tells the tale of the elderly American who quite possibly would just like to enjoy life a little after decades of hard work, but because the Fed and the President (via his desire for “easy money” policies) are publicly killing the value of the dollar via inflation, the elderly American has gotta get up and go to work!
That’s not good.
Who are the innovators?
Who are the future leaders?
Who are the fresh bodies?
Who are the nimble?
Who are the adaptable to change?
I’m pretty sure that whoever they are, they are not in the 55+ age group. But then again, I’m no demographer, so I may be wrong in my oversimplified generalization that the future well-being of America is found between the ages of twenty and fifty-four.
Please understand the broader point I’m trying to make and let it sink in: Today’s jobs report is only a tiny false hope for a disillusioned country that is on a collision course with total economic collapse.
Most people are falling for it.
Don’t get fooled.
I have been talking about the top in the gold-to-silver ratio:
We are finally seeing the gold to silver ratio come down for the right reasons – because the metals are rising in price, and silver is beginning to out-perform gold, as silver should.
The noise of today is just that – noise.
Sure, the cartel has beaten gold back to unchanged since the start of the year:
But glance up at that 15-minute gold chart again and notice what gold breached at 10:30 p.m. EST on Thursday, January 3rd.
Gold breached $1300!
We see “golden cross” progress with each passing day on gold’s daily chart:
The cartel really isn’t going to take too kindly to the golden cross.
But that’s just the thing – the cartel doesn’t have a choice.
That is to say, because of the cartel’s sheer hatred for honest money, gold and silver, the cartel will try to rough us up a bit with every opportunity the cartel gets and with every milestone we achieve.
By now we should all be immune or at least numb to the cartel’s bully tactics.
Just keep your eyes on target, and to those who are willing and able, recognize the temporary beat-downs for what they are, and take advantage when the opportunities present themselves.
For example, silver has moved almost $.20 off of the brute force-induced lows:
Pennies turn into dollars, dollars turn into ounces, and ounces turn into wealth.
I kind-of actually sounded smart for a second there!
I’ll have to remember that one (even though I probably won’t).
Silver’s daily chart looks bullish:
Assuming silver maintains here, the white metal has remained and closed above it’s 200-day moving average for two days in-a-row.
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, everybody knows silver is super overbought right now. I mean, just look at the RSI, and look at all those consecutive up-days. The cartel is going to come in and come in hard to give silver a royal beat-down!”.
Not sure I agree with you there.
Good thing I don’t believe in royalty either.
You see, that is exactly the thinking the cartel wants everybody to have. The cartel wants us waiting for the hammer that is surely going to drop.
I just don’t think the hammer is going to drop just yet.
It’s called “climbing a wall of worry”, and I don’t think silver is simply going to climb the wall. In other words, I’m still looking for my upside surprise, and we have not seen my upside surprise yet. All we have seen is silver moving off of the ridiculously low price levels where silver never should have gone in the first place.
Palladium is on fire:
I have been talking about palladium consolidating over time, and we see that palladium has done exactly that, and now palladium is looking to break-out.
I have also said platinum could experience an upside surprise of its own:
That’s a bullish move today!
Platinum surged through its 50-day moving average, but still, that is not the upside surprise I’m looking for either.
Crude oil is starting to look very interesting:
I’ll just go ahead and be the first person to say it: Crude oil just painted a “head” to go along with the “shoulder” in the development of the inverse head-n-shoulders pattern.
If there is any merit to technical analysis, and if the chart patterns are indeed not just theoretical, then we could be back in the upper-$70s within a couple of months.
That would not be fun.
Because I think the dollar is topping out here, so in addition to inflation, and a weakening dollar, we will have a strengthening dollar price of crude oil, all at a time when the economy and the markets could literally be falling apart before our very eyes.
Copper is also looking very interesting:
After double-bottoming, with a fresh new 52-week low put in just yesterday, I still think the next major move in the price of copper is a move to the upside.
The stock market has become an absolute farce:
Is it not blatantly obvious the goal is to confuse as many people as possible?
Here’s the thing: We know the economic collapse is coming, and we know the markets are going to crash.
Those things are the givens.
What is unknown is exactly who is on who’s side in this whole dirty, evil world of corrupt politicians and thieving bankers playing “4-D chess”. Now, I think they’re all evil and corrupt, but I’m willing to let anybody give politicians and bankers the benefit of the doubt. After all, we all must come to grips with reality in our own unique ways.
That said, with these wild swings in the stock market, it almost seems like the goal is to get people to second guess their outlooks, and by second guessing their outlooks, the more damaging the crash and the collapse will be. In other words, get the bulls to think bearish, get the bears to think bullish, keep the sheeple entertained with a steady supply of bread and circuses, keep free-thinking people nit-picking the smallest of details with each other, and then BAM!
Hit ’em with the shocker!
The VIX is helping this Orgy of the Second Guessers:
With daily swings in the stock market in excess of 500 to 800 points, we’re supposed to buy into the idea that fear in the market is subsiding?
What a crock of butter!
It would almost be funny if it was not just downright pathetic that these evil bastards manipulating the markets actually think we are really that simple-minded.
Remember – it is not just the sheeple that are in for a rude awakening.
The cartel itself is in for a rude awakening.
Well, the cartel thinks it is the master, but what the cartel doesn’t realize is that while the cartel has indeed been in control, we have been like chained dogs kicked one too many times by our masters, and out of sheer determination we have just snapped one of the links from the cemented-in and bolted-down chains that are holding us back, so the next time master comes to give us another kick, well, you know the rest.
It’s gonna be ugly.
Yield on the 10-Year Note shows just how market participants are reading today’s jobs report all wrong:
I have correctly been calling for short-term downside pressure on yields, and I still think we have more downside coming.
While not at the center of attention since we started this new year, I do think the dollar is about to move front-and-center:
I say that because I still think the next major move in the dollar is down, and not only that, but after today’s jobs report, the plunge in the dollar is really going to catch people off-guard.
It’s gonna be shock-and-awe baby!
That’s just how they like it.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.