Black Swan Watch: The United States just officially recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Here’s the details…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 6, 2017
Here’s analysis from Michael Snyder:
This is one of the most historic things to happen in the Middle East in decades. Just a few days ago I reported that Donald Trump would recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel “in December”, and now we are being told that Trump will make this announcement at 1 PM eastern time on Wednesday. Administration officials are stressing that this move is a “recognition of reality”, because of course the seat of the Israeli government has been in the holy city for a very long time. But without a doubt this announcement will shake the Middle East to the core, because Israel’s neighbors are extremely displeased that Trump is doing this.
What are possible actions that might come out of the U.S. reversal on Israel? Again here’s Snyder:
Once Trump’s announcement is made, all eyes will be on the Palestinians, and Palestinian leaders have already planned for protests to begin on Wednesday…
The Palestinian factions said protests will start on Wednesday and last until Friday at the very least. According to Palestinian leaders, marches against the decision are being backed by the Palestinian Authority.
Fatah Central Committee member Jamal Mahisan told Haaretz that Trump’s decision was an inflammatory material that will inspire Palestinians to take to the streets in rage. “The Palestinian people know how to protect their rights and we are in consultations regarding [our moves] in the coming days.”
The three days stretching from Wednesday to Friday are being called “three days of rage”, and it is very likely that we will see widespread violence. The following comes from the Jerusalem Post…
In a joint statement, the Palestinian “national and Islamic forces” announced three days of rage that would begin Wednesday and end on Friday. “We call on all our people in Israel and around the world to gather in city centers and Israeli embassies and consulates, with the aim of bringing about general popular anger,” the statement said.
The statement added that “a huge protest should be launched in order to reject out of hand the attempts of the US administration to transfer the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem or recognize Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Israel. The right of the people and the nation to act in all legal and diplomatic ways within the international community, the international law in the Hague, in order to torpedo this attempt,” the statement said, calling for an emergency meeting of the leaders of the Islamic countries and the Jerusalem Committee to emphasize their rejection of the American moves in Jerusalem.
Of course, the protests had already started yesterday. From Zero Hedge:
On Tuesday, Palestinian Christians in Bethlehem were spotted burning photographs of Donald Trump and holding signs reading “Move the embassy to your country, not ours,” and “Jerusalem, Palestine’s heart, is not up to negotiations.”
Palestinian protesters burn Trump pictures in Bethlehem on December 5, 2017
Why is this a possible Black Swan?
The United States just made a geo-political move.
Other moves from other nations are sure to follow, and the middle east is already a powder keg, especially since the Saudi Purge began last month.
While the long-term effects are unknown, a radical change in policy by the United States would only increase uncertainty in the markets, so we’ll see if the ESF and the Fed can quell any volatility that may arise out of such a geo-political event.