Murphy’s Comeback: Global Supply Chain Disruptions Worsen And Silver Takes A Beating, Again

The expression “time is money” is also appropriate here, as the more days a…

(by Half Dollar) I was having a pretty good week.

What can I say?

It’s the kind of dumb luck that curses only the most idiotic of wannabe intellectuals there ever could be:

Or it’s something else, but I’m not smart enough to figure out what that thing is, although I am smart enough to figure out that silver’s daily chart doesn’t look so good for the near-term.

As if the technicals matter.

Do they?

Regardless, I was having a pretty good week, and by good, I mean that apart from generally taking it easy as the weather turns nice and looking forward to many fun things this weekend, such as Wifey and I shopping for a new vehicle with my daughter, fishing with my son, and maybe grilling some freshly caught fish along with some really nice steaks, and I’m not talking about hamburger steaks either, but something really nice, like, you know, cubed steaks, I was wondering if silver was going to spike low down into the teens like I’ve been looking for so that I could convert some excess dollars into real savings, and I do hope that I get the chance to do that soon, lest the savings be done at a worse rate of exchange, and then sure enough, wouldn’t you know it, that Murphy came to pay me a visit?

He did.

Indeed.

Again.

You see, I’m no longer the most durable tool in the shed, and to be honest, I’m pretty worn out, so to make a long story short, in proving to my daughter that I could totally extract the two mountain bikes that were leaning up against the wall beside my squeaky clean truck inside of our cluttered, packed garage, without having to move my truck into the driveway where it was raining outside, I pulled something in my neck during a work-harder-not-smarter moment of Herculean Inspiration, or Lazy Impatience, or whatever, which led me to lift the bikes up and over the side of the truck, gently, and slowly, without touching it or the scratch-free paint job, and lay the bikes into the truck bed for easy final extraction, which in hindsight was a huge mistake, and now the pain in my neck has been such that, well, let’s just say that test driving cars and river bank fishing are going to feel a lot less like relaxing leisure activities and a heck of a lot more like doing extreme sports.

With no protective gear.

And sucking at them.

Seriously.

OK, “Hey Half Dollar, just stop right there right now you mellowdrama queen because we didn’t come here for one of your lame, pointless rants, we came here for the second rate analysis of the markets and the economy, so just get on with the news about the worsening global supply chain disruptions already Mr-I’m-Too-Scared-To-Ride-A-Rollercoaster-So-I-Just-Pretend-That-I-Can’t!”.

Oh, good grief.

Do you even keep your arms and legs inside the ride until it comes to a complete stop, bro?

But I digress.

I mention my experience this week on a personal level because in a micro sense, it is similar to what is happening in a macro sense.

That is to say, things are looking up, things are getting better, and then bam!

Something in the neck gets pulled the wrong way while lifting a couple of bikes in the garage, and now, there’s quite the petty pesky painful problem that follows, not unlike a cargo ship that got pulled the wrong way while transporting some containers in the Suez Canal, and now, there’s quite the global supply chain disruption that follows.

As if we didn’t have enough global supply chain disruptions already!

Here’s the point: The ship that’s stuck in the Suez Canal is becoming a serious headwind for the global economy, just when the economy needs a break more than ever, and with each passing hour and with each passing day, the risk of supply chain disruption contagion is very real, as well as the now instant increased costs for shipping as ships re-route and take longer to get from port to port.

The expression “time is money” is also appropriate here, as the more days a massive cargo ship spends transporting containers across the ocean, the more that shipping service is going to cost, and it is not just the time that is lost, but it is also the increased fuel consumption and increased energy consumption overall as the slow route is taken because the direct route is not passable.

It’s been a long, slow, painful “correction” in gold:

I don’t think there’s much more downside to go than we’ve already seen, however.

Perhaps a double bottom at a high 16-handle, maybe?

There’s been very little progress made on this gap which is only slightly wider than the Suez Canal:

If the Cartel can, they’ll close that gap with a good old-fashioned brute force pounding of silver.

The question is, can they?

Palladium continues to say, “yeah, the supply chain disruptions are real”:

Palladium is within spitting distance of all-time highs!

Platinum surged today:

What happens if the cargo ship remains stuck throughout the weekend?

For one thing, we could see some shocks in the crude oil market:

In my opinion, the risk is for shocks to the upside.

And that could mean the correction in the commodities is nearing its end, if not there already:

Not to worry, however, because Fed Chair Jerome Powell assures us that any move higher in inflation is only transitory!

Still, the markets and the economy are not in the clear just yet, and yet:

Seems legit.

As do new highs in complacency:

Funny.

Speaking of funny, America is apparently sending in the United States Navy to check out infrastructure that’s in the Middle East and primarily used to move cargo between China and Europe, and yet, not a word about Biden’s own “infrastructure” “plan” to Build America Back or whatever:

Or is that sad?

With every hour that passes by in which the cargo ship is stuck in the canal, every thing is going to cost even more of these:

Murphy says “hi!”.

Stack accordingly,

Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart