SD Outlook: There’s plenty of optimism to start the week, but if we’re talking about the US markets or economy, that’s not good. Here’s why…
The economic events calendar was jam-packed last week.
From the barely reported on GDP, to the Fed rate cut and the Friday Jobs Report, the actual market & economic news was not good.
And that’s putting it lightly.
The highly manipulated statistic for third quarter GDP came in at 1.9%.
Just like anorexia is not beautiful, sub-2.0% GDP is not impressive.
The Fed cut interest rates for the 3rd consecutive meeting on Wednesday.
That is not good news.
That is to say, just like a 75 year-old with lung cancer can perhaps buy some time by cranking up the oxygen flow, there comes a point in time when the respiratory system can simply function no longer, much in the same way that the Fed can keep engaging in emergency stimulus, but there comes a point in time when the financial system simply functions no longer.
The financial system will only function properly when we go back to real money – gold & silver.
Also highly manipulated, the headline print of 128,000 jobs created in the October BLS Jobs Report is pretty darn pathetic in-and-of itself, and even if we believe the number, which I don’t, the US economy continues to lose good paying jobs that offer benefits for low-paying jobs that offer nothing.
And yet, in looking at some MSM homepage propaganda, I’m greeted with:
That’s just swell.
Is it just me, or does it seem the sheeple seem to be in constant need of re-assurance?
Regardless, let’s have a look inside that article:
On Friday I said the October stock market crash that wasn’t is turning into the November madness that is.
Is it not?
To me, not only is the economy not in a good place, but one quick scan of the headlines reveals financial lunacy.
Regardless, everybody in the mainstream financial press was so sure of an October stock market crash, but it didn’t happen.
And yet, only four days in to November, the MSM is already declaring only unicorns and one great big giant rainbow for as far as the eye can see, with a gender-neutral, non-Irish Lepre-person-kin holding a recycled corrugated-carboard rounded container of USB flash drives at the end of it.
Fundamentally speaking, however, nothing has changed, and there is no way to sugar coat the incoming economic data, although we see exactly that being done.
Gold looks set to open above its 50-day moving average:
Let’s see if the average acts as a springboard this time.
Silver looks poised to make a quick run above $18.50:
If we make a quick run to $18.75, I’d say to get ready for a quick pull-back and the calls for a “cup-n-handle” formation.
The gold-to-silver ratio is all sorts of bullish for silver right now:
If gold moves first, however, we could see a temporary pop in the ratio, possibly back-up to the 200-day moving average.
It will be fun to watch Palladium this week, which opened 2019 under $1200:
At, call it $1800 today, we’re talking about a 50% gain, year-to-date.
Platinum looks like it wants to charge higher:
Wild swings like we see in platinum are often the signs of a topping or bottoming process, with platinum, in my opinion, being representative of the latter.
Crude oil keeps inching up to the resistance level of its sideways channel:
There have been plenty of geo-political shockers over the past several weeks, especially in the Middle East, yet nary a “risk premium” in the price of crude.
I think this will all be changing soon, however, because I feel one of the ways the Deep State Globalists plan to bring-on maximum pain to the United States economy is through higher prices at the pump, and that’s not going to happen at sub-$60.
To get maximum pain at the pump, I’d be expecting a quick run to $80, and it might not be tied into the 2019 holiday shopping season to impact what people spend on gifts, but rather, rising crude oil prices are likely to be felt at the pump come January, so that Americans struggle even more trying to pay off debt-fueled holiday spending which should have never been spent in the first place.
Dr Copper is telling us the commodities inflation is beginning:
In a recent Silver Doctors interview, we discussed how consumer price inflation has been rising because of increasing government regulation and burden, but we must now add in commodities price inflation.
Said differently: Get ready for higher prices on everything.
The Heartbeat of America Index sure wants to join the all-time high party:
If the Russell 2000 does join the all-time high party, RUT will be walking into a party which has gone on for far too long, so instead of seeing happy people dancing to descent music that’s loud enough to dance to but not so much that conversation is impossible, RUT will be welcomed by the sight of revelers vomiting along with myriad reckless black-outs.
Translation: Go into the stock market if you want, but at this point in the cycle you’ll pretty much only be welcomed by insider selling and spiking volatility along with individual or sector-wide crashes.
Check-out that impressive triple-bottom in the VIX:
Similarly to the gold-to-silver ratio, there is really only one way for the VIX to go.
Is that up, or down?
And what does that even mean?
Yield on the 10-Year Note will be interesting to watch this week:
Last week we had the post-FOMC knee-jerk, but this week, we have a full trading week to let the move work itself out.
I’m still under the firm opinion that yield can only go down (to make the debt serviceable) until the bond market blows-up, and at that point, we’ll likely already be in the US dollar fiat currency crisis.
On Friday, I used this graph in my Weekly Wrap:
Which seems to be showing us that the US dollar hyperinflation and the crack-up boom may have already begun.
Speaking of the dollar, we look to be opening below the 200-day moving average:
As the value of the dollar falls, look for price inflation to pick-up even faster at street-level.
The bottom line as we find ourselves here this beautiful first Monday of November?
Sure, we made it through October, but these markets are under 24/7 control.
The MSM’s either ignorant to all of this at best, or complicit to it at worst.
It looks like we’re beginning to see sheeple-complacency yet again.
It truly can be amazing to see how quickly the tune changes.
Like October was the stock market crash that was not.
November is misplaced trust in market well-being.
The US economy is in a bad coma at best.
The Fed is more than totally clueless.
We see growth in (crappy) jobs.
What is coming is not good.
Unless prepared for it.
Most aren’t ready.
Most will lose.
Lose it all?
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.