Who would have thought? US dollar & Dow stable, volatility subsiding, and gold & silver down to start the week. The “market” auto-pilot was working just fine last night and into the morning, but holding a mainstream view that “everything is awesome” would be a serious mistake this week…
First things first – when it doubt, smash:
Last time I checked, you can pick up a bunch more ounces at $17.75 than you can at $18.25!
One look at the economic calendar one thing should immediately stick out like a sore thumb:
No Fed speeches at all this week. This is common the week before FOMC day. Next week Janet Yellen will hold a “press conference” in conjunction with the rate hike decision or indecision, so this week, there is nothing to for the market to take the wrong way. It’s not like the Fed, ESF and market manipulators won’t have their hands full behind the scenes anyway.
CME Group rate hike probability is showing the Fed will hold, with any variation to the “rate cut” side:
This is not to say there is not a ton of fundamental news brewing in the background. North Korea is still at it, Russia is conducting war games, the United States is dealing with a one-two hurricane punch, and Syria is front and center again. Not to our surprise, none of this is good for markets, but sure enough, one look at the charts will show that apparently it all is.
In fact, uncertainty seems to be quelled. The “fear” barometer, the VIX, is subsiding, and the dollar is slightly up going into the week:
The Dow is also suspended in near perfect unch form:
Crude is breaking-down:
Gold is down $20 from Friday (30 from the highs after the Monday morning beat-down):
And sure enough, Silver is on sale today:
In fact, it is almost eerie just how pleased the bankers would be of their set-up for the week. And therein lies the problem. Just like last week we said that gold and silver were not likely going to bust out of the $1350 and $18 range, this week may find the central banks on the complacent side. If there is a break-out, it will not be to our surprise, but we can rest assured knowing the Fed will be doing everything it can to pressure gold and silver prices down in attempts to have some slack going into next week.
We still watch our levels that are unchanged. Gold is having a hard time getting through $1350, which is full of resistance just about anywhere from $1310 on:
And silver is stuck with resistance at $18.25 and $18.50, but if that weren’t bad enough, now it’s fighting just to maintain $18. Regardless, it won’t be an easy week unless we get a commanding break-out in silver: