The ramp up for war is indeed very real, it’s happening very fast, and the “markets” think it’s all no big deal…
(Silver Doctors Editors) The ramp-up for war is indeed very real and very serious.
Since May of 2019, the US has deployed 14,000 troops to the Middle East.
That was before the “storming of the embassy” chain of events of last week.
The ramp-up does not stop there, however, as we now have more precise details of troop movements.
For example, this morning Reuters was covering the departure of 600 soldiers in an article which reported that 3,500 soldiers from Fort Bragg have been ordered to the region.
Yesterday, a Fox News Pentagon Reporter said 2,000 Marines are heading to the Middle East:
More than 2,000 Marines headed to Middle East aboard warships Bataan, New York and Oak Hill amid Iran tensions: officials
— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) January 6, 2020
With the examples from yesterday and today, here’s the running total so far:
- Troops in the region prior to the storming of the embassy: 60,000 (which includes the 14,000 since last May)
- Army & Marine increase as a direct result of storming the embassy: 850 (100 Marines, 750 Paratroopers)
- Army Soldiers & Marines heading to the Middle East right now: 5,500 (3,500 soldiers from Fort Bragg, 2,000 Marines)
The running total seems to be 66,350 US military in the Middle East right now, 18,350 of which were deployed to the region since May of 2019.
Have the markets priced-in a new hot war in the Middle East breaking-out?
It looks like the markets have not: The dollar is rising, yield on the 10-Year Note hasn’t moved since the week began, the stock market put-in a big, bullish engulfing candle yesterday, silver has been walked back down, and the VIX (fear gauge) is barely above 14.
Even if the crisis in the Middle East de-escalates, all of this troop movement and ramp-up for war is very inflationary, which the markets have not priced-in either.