SD Outlook: How low will gold & silver prices go? To answer that, let’s look at the reasons, and the cover, for this week’s smash…
I thought gold & silver would receive a nasty beating last night.
It thought this in part because gold & silver were technically set-up with a near-term down-trend.
Here we see the bearish 5-minute chart for silver:
I think we could take-out $16.51 and keep on moving lower.
It would not surprise me to trade as low as a $15 on this move, but at this point, I’m not looking for a 14-handle.
Gold’s 5-minute chart is pretty bearish for the near-term as well:
I think we could trade down to a 13-handle before the week is over.
Perhaps more reliable than the technical action on the charts is the Deep State Globalists undeniably obsessive interest in dates and numbers.
Which is another reason I thought we were going to feel some extra special lovin’ on Sunday evening.
What was important last Sunday?
Recall that last week, mid-week, we observed the 48th anniversary of Nixon Closing the Gold Window, but it could be argued that the 15th is not the true anniversary of the event, but rather, the 3rd Sunday in August is.
Sorry, Americans are weird like that.
Whereas many places in the world celebrate holidays on specific dates, regardless of what day the date fall on in any given year, Americans often celebrate holidays with floating dates because the it is the day in the month that matters as opposed to the actual hard date.
Thanksgiving is a good example of this: The Holiday is always celebrated on the 4th Thursday of November.
Side Note: Uh-oh, there will be one less “weekend” for Christmas shopping this year as Thanksgiving falls on the latest date it can fall this year: The 28th of November.
Cash for Clunkers 2.0 can’t get here soon enough!
But I digress.
Sunday was the 48th anniversary of Nixon Closing the Gold Window if you go by the day and not the date.
To me, it felt the cartel would have wanted to come in and give the metals some nice downward momentum to start the week when the “markets” opened on Sunday.
Now don’t get me wrong – the did provide some downward momentum, they just didn’t come in and bludgeon gold & silver to within one inch of their lives.
Regardless, I was wrong yet again, but I do think the trend will be down this week.
There are two events on the calendar that would work to provide some nice cover for the cartel:
On Wednesday we get the Minutes from the July FOMC, and on Friday, everybody will be enjoying the Fed’s circus side-show which will culminate in dollar murderer extraordinaire and rock band front man Jerome Powell yapping his pie hole at Jackson Hole.
Translation: From the Tuesday COT Report shenanigans to the Wednesday FOMC Minutes to the Friday pre-Powell speech gold & silver market prep-work, and at various points in between, it seems the cartel will deliver some pretty steady pressure on gold & silver this week.
The questions are, just how much pressure can the cartel apply, and will gold & silver stay down for long?
Before digging into the charts, I’d like give a really quick update on consumer price inflation by means of a recent experience with prices at the street level.
I have been saying for some time, years actually, that Americans need to get ready for $35 bottles of ranch salad dressing, $1,500 tennis shoes, and $10,000 airplane tickets.
I generally either get a deer in the headlights look back when I say those things, or I get the standard “that will never happen here” in much of the same way people think the US dollar will always reign supreme.
Here’s my point: Prices are on the move now.
Case in point: Band Aids.
Freakin’ Band Aids.
I was in Costco the other day.
Yeah, I know, right, ‘Ol Half Dollar pays a store for the privilege of shopping there.
Something about a happy wife?
Anyway, what a world we live in where we pay good money to shop in a store where the selection and prices are pretty “meh”.
Anyway, daughter needs some Band Aids, so she grabs the offering and places them in the cart: $15.
Yeah, I know, right, $15 for Band Aids!
You may be thinking, “yeah, but you probably got something like a 10-year supply for of Band Aids for $15!”.
In total, I’m pretty sure there are significantly less than 200 Band Aids.
There were like 100 or so regular-sized Band Aids, and then 10 or 20 each of a couple various-sized and odd ball-shaped Band Aids.
And let me repeat that one more time so it sinks in: I paid a store for the privilege to shop there, and I used my privilege to pay $15 for some freakin’ Band Aids.
Who uses those things anyway?
Prices are going up – little by little, bit by bit, and before long, it will matter.
In the case of the Band Aids, it was significant enough for us to give pause and think about the purchase.
I could never understand why I often see people in the dairy section of a grocery store holding and staring at something so seemingly basic as a 8-ounce tub of sour cream.
The problem is that sour cream is not optional in my family.
It’s always in the fridge.
But to some families, sour cream in optional, and the decision on whether or not to spend a couple of dollars on sour cream must be carefully weighed because with limited funds, sour cream has to present itself as the best use of those funds at that particular moment in time.
Translation: Economic Misery and Financial Ruin are really about to take hold in the United States.
We’ve barely just begun.
I think the cartel wants to paint a head-n-shoulders pattern on silver’s daily chart:
Although I’d just prefer it if the cartel would just go ahead and smash as hard as they want here so we can just get on with it already.
A smash down to $15.50 would be preferred because if they decide to try to paint the head-n-shoulders pattern, then we’re talking about something that takes weeks to develop and play-out.
It’s not always about brute force, and the agony of a head-n-shoulders pattern would do wonders on investor psychology.
I’d like it if gold dipped-down and found support at $1450:
What I don’t like is the quagmire between $1400 and $1450.
If gold & silver get smashed this week, look for a continued move higher in the gold-to-silver ratio:
This will be the kind of move that stackers want if adding to that stack because the ratio will be rising on price weakness.
I’m liking how palladium is finding continued support above $1400:
We could fall as far as $1350 for the year-long uptrend to remain intact.
I’m no longer looking for a quick run to $900 on platinum:
If gold & silver are now in their pullbacks, which I think gold & silver are, I would not be surprised to see platinum make a trip back down to what should be pretty solid whole number support at $800
I’m currently not looking for a significant move lower in copper:
It sure does seem like the worst of the down-move is behind us.
Crude oil is really starting to coil at $55:
I would expect crude oil to coil even further if things play out in the markets as I think they will play out.
I’m looking for a move down in the VIX this week:
The suppression of volatility is essential for the suppression of gold & silver.
Suppressing volatility will also be needed if the stock market will be ramped-higher this week:
Unless you’re on the inside of the evil, corrupt banks, Fed or government, and unless after being on the inside you also have the ability to use non-public information in conjunction with free, unlimited fake fiat currency which can be printed-up and used to enrich thyself whilst acting on that valuable non-public information, you will lose every time.
You’ve been crushing it in these “markets”?
Good for you.
I hope you can get out in time.
I think we get a move higher in yield this week:
I think that in part because gold and especially silver have yet to price-in last week’s plunge in the 10-year, and if the cartel thinks it’s still in control, which apparently the cartel is in control, the cartel would rather not have to deal with the whole “gold vs interest rates” thing.
The dollar is going to be very important this week:
If we run higher, I am still of the opinion it will be one heckuva bull trap.
What is the bottom line as we find ourselves here this beautiful Monday morning in mid-August?
The cartel, in my opinion, will pressure gold & silver prices all week long, through Friday.
If stacking this week, watch the charts for an opportunity during a heavy smash.
The real question is not so much the smash, but how do we recover?
If we recover fast, we will have more evidence the cartel’s weak.
I still think the cartel is losing control of the “markets”.
For now, if they can smash, they will smash.
Smashburger’s on the menu this week.
Bring your appetite and your Tums.
But then again, it’s the cartel.
They might bite-off more.
More than they can.
You know, chew.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.