SD Outlook: There are several events and potentially market moving events to sort out in this week’s outlook…
There are some noteworthy market events beginning today and continuing throughout next week.
Today, most US markets are closed for MLK Day.
From the CME Group, we see the gold & silver futures “market” will be open today and halt at 1:00 p.m. EST, and then will resume normal hours at 6:00 p.m. EST.
Next week, however, China’s markets are closed all week, including the Shanghai Gold Exchange, as the Chinese celebrate the Lunar New Year.
To that end, the cartel generally likes to use market holidays, low volume trading days, and other non-standard trading days to strong arm gold & silver.
In other words, if the cartel can smash, the cartel will smash.
Additionally, next week is the Fed’s 2-Day FOMC for January.
Interestingly, the CME Group has a not insignificant probability of a rate hike next week:
Notice how the probability of a rate hike has been slowly creeping higher.
More immediate, however, is what is, or is not, happening in the state of Virginia.
For those who are unaware, protests have been planned for today.
Here’s a good primer for those who haven’t been following what’s been going on with regards to Virginia’s attack on the 2nd Amendment:
The MSM, however, would rather talk about some dang prince rather than something as important as Citizens taking to the streets in support of the Constitution in general, and the 2nd Amendment specifically:
With the Governor of Virginia declaring a state of emergency and many in the alternative media warning that some sort of a false flag could be carried out, coverage on CNN’s homepage could look very different by the end of the day.
The bottom lines is there is very high risk right now for a false flag or a false flag hoax.
President Trump, interestingly, put the issue front-and-center on Friday:
Your 2nd Amendment is under very serious attack in the Great Commonwealth of Virginia. That’s what happens when you vote for Democrats, they will take your guns away. Republicans will win Virginia in 2020. Thank you Dems!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 17, 2020
And then he even re-Tweeted that on Saturday.
Was that a clarion call to get more people to go to Virginia for this rally/protest?
If so, then what is the true motive of wanting the people in the streets today?
Here’s a live-feed from, not CNN, not Fox News, not Reuters, but yeah, you’ve guessed it, Russian Propaganda:
We’ll stay on top of the news coming out of Virginia and cover it as necessary.
That said, there is some interesting news coming out of China.
Putting two and two together, It looks like the stage is being set for some designer viral pandemic flu to flare-up in Asia.
First, because a “mystery illness” is spreading:
It’s never good seeing people all decked-out in bio-hazard gear rolling out people or bodies on stretchers.
Secondly, we see articles like this:
That’s a lot of carriers which could make that mystery virus spread like wildfire.
People talk about Virginia being a test-ground for gun confiscation and things like that, and in a similar fashion, I ask if China could be the testing ground for some new designer biological weapon?
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, what would be the motive for carrying out a biological attack in China?”.
I think it would be to indirectly attack China’s economy.
Think about what happened and is happening to Hong Kong’s economy after months and months of protests, and then think of all the economic damage that could be done against China were the Deep State and/or Globalists to unleash a pandemic there?
The question then becomes, why would we want to wreck their economy?
We would want to wreck it because China’s economy is performing better than ours, so attacking China’s economy is a way to maintain the US dollar on life support for just a little while longer.
Of course, the desire to inflict economic pain on China is from the point of the view of the Deep State or Globalists and not what I would want.
The question now becomes, how do we know which economy is doing better when both the US government and the Chinese government lie about their economic data and statistics all the time?
We can look to simple, anecdotal evidence to see very clearly which economy is doing better.
Here’s some evidence that broke just last week, and it looks pretty clear to me:
If we look at the example of Bose (a.k.a. speaker/headphones manufacturer), we can see the shift in economic power from West to East is in full force.
Question: If the US Economy is truly “booming”, then why is Bose closing every freakin’ store in the United States?
Follow-up question: If two weeks ago we learned of Pier 1 closing 450 stores and shutting distribution centers, and if last week we learned of Bose closing all of its US stores, then how is the American-centric Russell 2000 still hitting all-time highs, repeatedly?
Last Friday even:
I think the US stock markets are being set-up for an epic crash to wipe out Americans’ savings (which are now in the stock market) once and for all.
Part of that set-up includes suppression of the VIX:
We could very well take-out that low print of 11.03 before the stock markets finally come crashing down.
Of course, when the stock market comes crashing down, people will likely rush into the “safety” of US Bonds:
That will push down bond-yields, such as the yield on the 10-Year Note, and that’s exactly what the US Federal Government needs to keep interest rates low in order to fund bigger deficits and be able to service its debts, or at least the interest on the debt, and even if this time around traders and investors do not seek out the safety of US bonds, which one day will indeed be the case, I think the Exchange Stabilization Fund will simply pick-up the buying to make it appear that traders and investors are rushing into the US bond market.
If there was a closed door agreement, or an agreement made in secret, to walk down the dollar, would we know about it?
Even if there was no agreement, it’s hard to see the DXY as bullish:
I see a topping process that’s super-choppy, and I think the top at just shy of 100 holds.
Furthermore, the short-term downtrend is still, well, a trend.
I’m starting to hear many experts saying copper won’t have a bull run like many think it will:
I’m bullish copper, and there are other analysts who are bullish copper too, so if anything, a nice mix of bulls and bears, at the end of a deflationary cycle, is bullish in my opinion.
And that’s not even the reason I’m bullish on copper, but rather, it’s just an observation that there aren’t too many people on either side of the boat.
Crude oil looks like it wants to break-out above $60 again:
The Middle East has kind of moved out of the MSM spotlight, so I for one would not be surprised if there was some kind of shock this week that caused the price of crude oil to spike.
It’s nice to see platinum consolidating above $1000:
I think the consolidation holds here above the psychologically important level, but if not, it looks like we have some nice support at $975 if we need it.
Palladium is over $2300:
Gold is holding its own above $1550:
The cartel has plenty of opportunity to smash gold over the next two weeks, so if the cartel can’t smash, I think the correction will be over time instead, possibly over the next two weeks for the reasons outlined at the beginning of this Outlook.
The gold-to-silver ratio is still an opportunity to those who have been on the fence:
While we are still in the mid-80s, to me it looks like we’ve found a short-term top just above 87 (the second to last black candle).
Even silver is holding its own above $18:
I think we’re about due for an upside surprise again, but I’m still looking for the pressure to come over the next two weeks.
What is the bottom line as we find ourselves here this beautiful MLK Day of 2020?
There are the main issues in the MSM, but keep your eyes on the small ones.
That is to say, the events in Virginia could turn into something serious.
And the “mystery illness” in China could do the very same thing.
A false flag or hoax in Virginia would be a Black Swan.
As would a pandemic spreading like wildfire.
Are the markets ready for a plot twist?
I don’t think that the markets are.
Today many have the day off.
Conditions are very ripe.
For the Deep State.
To lash out.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.