It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like The Peak Of The Business Cycle

SD Outlook: It’s also beginning to look a lot like recession’s coming, and It’s all downhill from here…

‘Ol Half Dollar got to do some pretty sweet retail recon yesterday.

You see, about twice per year, my family takes a trip to “the mall”.

I can’t stand that mall.

I only go along so I can observe the sheeple in the wild, and let me tell you, there was a lot to observe in the wild yesterday.

First off: This is an interesting mall, and it is representative of the entirety of society.

In fact, the mall is on two different sides of a major urban road, with an enclosed “skywalk” connecting the two sides.

One sides of the mall is the posh side, as evidenced by the Rolls Royce we saw being pulled up to valet parking.

Do you even chauffeur bro?

The other, bigger side of the mall is for the proles, although that’s not to say there is no commingling of the two classes – high society and everybody else.

During my work in the field yesterday, I made several excellent observations that led me to one conclusion – we’re at the peak of the business cycle.

During out live-stream today at 11:00 a.m. EST, on our YouTube Channel, I plan to discuss several observations, and I do hope you join us at that time and share your observations too.

In this market outlook, I’d like to talk about one observation: Peloton.

From the Peloton store at that mall.

Yes, this Peloton:

You know, so our wifey’s won’t look so fat.

Or at least they’ll be able to have more fun and not worry about the added calories:

She does look great by the way.

But I digress.

That dang exercise bike costs $2400!

For a dang exercise bike!

But here’s the real kicker: It’s not even a very good bike.

The Peloton Sales Rep, a fit, wannabe 30-something all decked out in Lululemon and wearing just a tad too much make-up, told me that.


“It’s not the bike, it’s the workout!”.

Good thing I wasn’t taking a sip from my tasty Coca-Cola from the crappy Chinese Food place in the food court, lest it would have spewed out my nose and landed right on the brand new garb.

Let’s talk about the bike and that “workout” for a second.

The $2400 bike is basically a mid-range of quality exercise bike with what I estimate to be a 19 inch widescreen monitor with a built-in webcam facing the rider and speakers out the back.

Here’s a little bit of the conversation that took place:

Half Dollar: So It’s an exercise bike with a tablet attached to it?

30-Something (let’s call her Lulu): Kind of.

Half Dollar: I breath heavy when I’m working out, and spit a lot, and sweat would end up splashing the screen on that thing profusely, so how well will it hold up against water and bodily fluids?

Lulu: Um, we can see what it says about water damage, if you want?

Half Dollar: That’s okay. So what kind of functionality does this tablet have. Can it download apps from the Play Store?

Lulu: It’s not that kind of tablet. It has workout Videos.

Half Dollar: Oh. I see. So you can’t watch YouTube music videos on it if you want, or the news, or maybe a movie?

Lulu: No sir, it does not have those things. Let’s look at a live work-out right now.

Half Dollar: Oh, OK. If those workout videos you’re showing me are live, do you have to pay for those?

Lulu: Yes, it’s a subscription, but look, there are over 3,000 people online doing this very workout right now, and you can compete with them all to get on the leaderboard!

Half Dollar: And how much does this subscription cost?

Lulu: It costs $40 per month.

Half Dollar: Oh, and I imagine you get a free year of subscription or something like that with the purchase of one of the bikes?

Lulu: The bike doesn’t come with any subscription, that’s extra.

Half Dollar: Oh. I see. Well, what if you don’t pay for the subscription, like, would you just use some pre-recorded workout videos or something?

Lulu: No sir. You have to get the subscription, or all you get is the typical read-out that you would get on any exercise bike.

Half Dollar: Great. Just let me take a brochure so I can look it over later on.

Lulu: Well, we don’t have brochures, but if you give me your email address, we can send you out more info.

Half Dollar: That’s okay. We’ll just find out more info online. Thanks!

Upon exiting the store, I thought about all of the time throughout the years that I have run on treadmills, which is actually a lot more time than one would imagine, for believe it or not, Half Dollar used to be a half-decent runner.

I thought to myself, this product, Peloton, is not innovative at all, because there are better exercise bikes for cheaper prices, much cheaper, and, when a cheaper bike is placed in front of some better touch-monitor or tablet with full Android or iOS functionality, the whole package is still much cheaper, and the whole selling point of Peloton’s bike is moot because I’m sure “workout on demand” apps will pop up all over the place (if they don’t exist already), and for much less than $40 per month, and on top of that, what I’m talking about would boast a fully-featured tablet for those times when you only want to do one work out to the entirety of Nirvana’s Nevermind album instead of having to look at some glamed-up work-out model making your efforts seem quite pathetic.

Finally, does anybody remember those cheesy, crappy “Nabi” tablets for kids?

Even those have the option to run in full Android mode.

Yet Peloton?

One of the signs we’ve reached the peak of the business cycle, which, in my opinion, means to get ready for the destruction of all of this malinvestment brought on by over ten years of funny money printing.

Again, do come join us at our new time, 11:00 a.m. EST, if you’re interested in hearing more of the observations from a holiday shopping trip to an interesting mall.

Silver Is starting the week above $17:

I’m not liking the low volume bars, however, and I still really want to get to “extremely oversold” conditions on the technicals, but starting the week above $17 is a good start for the bulls.

Gold looks like it could break-out through its 50-day moving average even today:

It would be sweet to see gold do that, because, well, you know, of the whole “gold moves first, then silver outperforms” thing.

Which would mean a pause in the gold-to-silver ratio:

Followed by the resumption of the move lower.

I’d like platinum to bounce off of its 50-day moving average:

Followed by a quick run to take-out the psychologically important $1000 price level, and if that happens, we’ll have further evidence we’ve seen the bottom in gold & silver.

Palladium, well, palladium just keeps on keepin’ on:

Notice palladium’s RSI in “extremely overbought” territory?

That is the exact opposite of what I want(ed) to see in gold & silver.

I think a short squeeze is coming in crude:

The short-squeeze will intensify what is already momentum to the upside, in my opinion, because I think it will be the Deep State Globalists’ plan to bring maximum pain to the United States in the form of economic misery and financial ruin, which means pain at the pump where the Americans who can afford it the least feel it the most.

Besides, copper is telling us the “deflation” threat is over:

Copper is off of its highs from earlier in the year, but the red metal is still up over 6.0% year-to-date and carving out a respectable bottom.

The stock market is rallying on three Dog-N-Pony Shows:

All of the major indexes are hitting new all-time highs.

If they smash the VIX, we could even get that stock market “melt-up” top:

So would that be one last flash crash before they spike the VIX to go along with a crashing stock market?

The cartel is having a hard time dealing with yield on the 10-Year Note:

They need rates to come down for the US government, but, at the same time, rates coming down will be interpreted as a “flight to safety” (even though bonds are not safe) and give the cartel problems in containing gold & silver prices.

Finally, death is quickly approaching the U.S. dollar:

The question is, if the dollar turns red on the year, will that mark the start of the plunge?

I think it very well could because I think they’re bringing it down on purpose.

Bottom line here on this beautiful, snowy day in mid-December?

We can see we’ve clearly reached the peak of the cycle.

What comes from here is the “creative destruction”.

Companies building crappy products close.

Stores close, people lose their jobs.

And that’s just one aspect of it.

We’ve reached the peak.

It’s all downhill now.

In a good way?

It depends.

It can.


Stack accordingly…

– Half Dollar


About the Author

U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.

Paul’s free book Gold & Silver 2.0: Tales from the Crypto can be found in the usual places like Amazon, Apple iBooks & Google Play, or online at Paul’s Twitter is @Paul_Eberhart.