SD MIdweek Update: Here’s how the housing market, stock market, & entire financial system will die, and why gold & silver will spring back to life…
I’m going to tell you how the system dies.
If you learn one thing today, learn this: Protect the core.
You must, at all costs, protect the core.
It really doesn’t matter what system I’m talking about.
I could be talking about the housing market, the human body, the stock market, fish in a fishbowl, a coin collection, or the entire global financial system.
This is how the system will die: The system will die at the core.
What does that mean?
Well, it’s bitter cold outside, and no doubt some people are actually freezing to death, but still, people will always be buying and selling houses.
Yet the housing market is freezing to death too.
We know that because the housing market is protecting the core.
The housing market’s legs & arms, however, already have the stench of death.
The housing market’s legs are houses priced, say, under $150,000.
Call the arms houses priced $750,000+.
Well, the core would be the average price of a house.
Let’s not get lost in the details of what “average” means, so let’s just use the average price of a new house, including the land, from October of 2018, according to the US Census Bureau.
The average price in October, 2018, was $395,000.
That price is the most vital organ of the housing market.
But the core is not just one vital organ.
The core is made up of many vital organs, and so the core of the housing market is, call it houses priced $200,000 to $500,000.
The core will be the last to go.
The legs and the arms will be sacrificed to protect the core.
In terms of the housing market, this means the lowest priced homes and the highest priced homes crack first.
Those homes are not needed.
They are not the core.
So the system loses its extremities first.
There should be good deals to be had in the housing market when the low-end and the high-end crack, which they very well may already have.
There’s a certain point, you know, when there’s just no saving the legs.
Or the arms.
And we will soon find out how strong the core really is.
I think it’s pretty weak.
Furthermore, I think the body that is the housing market will go into shock.
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, you’re really all over the place lately. What in the heck does the body going into shock have to do with the housing market?”.
You see, nobody is expecting the housing market to die.
The housing market has already had it’s date with death during the Global Financial Crisis, and the housing market won.
And after several intravenous fluids, some emergency surgeries, and a few pig organ transplants, the housing market is as good as new!
If you call that “good as new”.
The housing market’s nothing but a seller’s market, with buyer bidding wars in the hot spots, and one-stop-shopping with free landscaping upgrades as far as the eye can see in the extra artificially-stimulated, wouldn’t be rising on their own, not-so-hot spots.
Which is exactly why that when the housing market goes into hypothermia from the freezing cold, the body will protect the core.
Houses under $150,000 will be left to rot.
Which means deals will be had.
Houses over $750,000 will be left to rot.
Which means deals will be had.
When the housing market finally dies, it will die at the core.
At that point, everybody gets a deal.
So understand where we are.
Has the housing market died yet?
No, it hasn’t.
Here’s another question: Have gold & silver died yet?
Yes, they have.
Now are you ready for the curve-ball?
After death, systems reincarnate.
Now that’s not my religious belief, so don’t go thinkin’ that ‘Ol Half Dollar just went full Hindu, this is just my observation of what happens to complex systems like markets and the economy.
So if the housing market is about to freeze to death, which it is, and if the legs and arms are already shivering, which they are, then the core is about to go into shock and die.
Which it will.
But gold & silver?
But they’re about to spring back to life.
Look for market volatility today, even in the mid to late afternoon.
Today is the January FOMC announcement and Powell Presser afterwards. Remember – starting this year, all FOMC meetings will include a press conference.
Does that mean they are all “live” meetings?
Doesn’t the Fed hike at “live” meetings?
Hit ’em with the shocker?
I don’t know.
Not that the Fed Funds Rate at this point matters anything for the price of gold and silver, in the sense that gold & silver are rising whether the Fed stays the course, or whether the Fed veers off-course.
It doesn’t matter.
Gold & silver are going higher.
That said, you wanna know something that makes me vomit just thinking about it?
There are all of thes…
Sorry about that.
I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.
Why is it, that all we hear about from the mainstream, and even the so-called “alternative media”, is talk about how the Fed will or won’t manipulate the market via interventionist adjustments to interest rates, while at the same time those who do all that talking are not only Fed apologists, but also manipulation deniers?
I know, the irony of that right?
And they think that goldbugs and silverbugs are the ones who are nuts for thinking the Fed is illegitimate and that the markets are rigged?
I know that was probably convoluted because I was pulling a Janet Yellen:
You’d think they themselves would be immune from the crap they’re servin’.
I guess not.
The gold-to-silver ratio is still affording some last chance opportunities for stackers to make an awesome arbitrage play down the line:
Some people see some black and red candles with some lines and numbers on a grid.
I see free ounces of gold.
But it takes time.
You must be willing and able to wait it out.
I hope you are both.
It is hard to argue we have not been in a topping process in the GSR since last September. A topping process in the gold-to-silver ratio is another way of saying a bottoming process in gold & silver.
I like it.
I think silver punches through and closes above $16 to close out the week:
Everyone thinks the smash is “imminent”.
‘Ol Half Dollar knows imminent.
I mean, I did call the US government’s overthrowing of the Venezuelan Government “imminent” exactly one day before it happened.
But get it.
I’m an idiot.
What do I know?
Gold Gapped-up on Tuesday:
Recall I said gold needs some follow-through momentum this week.
Follow through gold did.
“Momo”, as the mainstream yuppie hipster scum like to say.
Palladium’s technicals are cooling:
That’s good because palladium has been on fire.
Everything always needs a cool-down.
Platinum’s support of its 50-day moving average is holding:
Platinum looks finished carving-out a nice bottom here.
I’m still looking for my upside surprise in platinum.
Copper’s bottom looks a lot like platinum’s:
I see the copper price breaking-out very soon.
Copper will rise in price, in my opinion, along with crude oil’s break-out:
I do think we’ve seen the bottom, and at this point, I’m not looking for a double-bottom in crude oil.
The stock market has marked has gone sideways for the last several days:
To me, we’re not basing here, unless we’re building the base’s roof.
I think the stock market is going to roll-over again.
Look at how the sequence of events are playing out.
It’s not hard.
If the evil globalists and Deep State Traitors are one thing, it’s typical.
So the sequence goes like this: geo-political crisis, market crisis, political crisis, economic crisis, political crisis, economic crisis, geo-political crisis, market crisis.
Where are we in the sequence of events?
We’re at the geo-political crises.
That includes things such as:
- Middle East US military withdrawal
- Lost in the geo-political sweet-n-sour sauce China
Economic or market crisis is in the chute.
I think it will be a market crisis.
Followed by a political crisis.
Followed by the economic collapse.
As such, in the short-term, I’m still looking for increasing with spiking volatility:
We haven’t seen much lately, so I think a notable spike is coming.
Hey dollar bulls, it’s okay that you’re starting to buy gold & silver:
Because your purchasing power is about to take the express elevator right down to the ground floor.
I’m still looking for a short-term drop in interest rates:
I think a re-test of those lows is coming and coming pretty soon.
So what’s the bottom line as we find ourselves mid-week?
A deep, cold, and deadly freeze is taking over.
And the weak will not survive it.
So watch those extremities.
And monitor the core.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.