Now that I have you’re attention, it’s time we had a talk about crazy predictions, rational expectations, and everything in between…
It’s not easy being a Gold Bug.
It’s even worse being a Silver Bug.
I’m a Silver Bug.
It’s not supposed to be easy.
Except for quitting, or maybe giving up.
That’s all too easy.
And you know what’s even easier than quitting or giving up?
Finding someone or something to blame it on.
You know, because blaming one thing on something else is The American Way.
Thank God it’s not “hanging on in quiet desperation”.
The English already claimed that deficiency.
Let’s play the blame game, shall we?
“If only it wasn’t for those monthly get-togethers with my fat cousins at the Golden Corral, I could have lost that weight”.
“If only it wasn’t for the whole new vaping craze, I wouldn’t have started smoking again”.
“If I only didn’t win that $250 on the $5 scratch-off last month, I wouldn’t have spent this month’s rent money on Lotto”.
Tighten you abs and brace for it because here it comes: We are all responsible, individually, for our own actions, and we all, individually, live with the consequences of our actions.
Sometimes people win because of one’s action or inaction.
Often times, people lose.
I would say most of the time people lose.
And I would say that most of the people lose most of the time.
But that’s just me.
I’m not sure if I’m a pessimist or if my alter-ego is Negative Nancy.
Regardless, sometimes others are hurt by one’s own actions.
Sometimes pride is hurt.
Sometimes nothing is hurt because of dumb luck.
But no matter the outcome – good, bad or indifferent, it all boils down to individual action.
Did someone say silver was going to $1,000 last September, and now you’re stuck paying a second mortgage on the house, and making matters worse, you’re went all in at $18.25 and here we sit a year later at $15.50?
Shame on them?
Or shame on you?
You see, there are no such things as excuses.
Really understand that, because it is important: There is no such thing as an excuse.
To borrow a favorite cliché from the redneck side of my family, “it is what it is”.
You are responsible for your own actions, I am responsible for my own actions, and people who bought silver at $18.25 and sold at $15.50 are responsible for their actions, just like individuals who bought silver at $8 and sold for $49, and just like individuals who bought at $35 and are madder than Hell.
There are only actions, and there are no excuses.
I can say it differently: There are no excuses, there are only actions.
See how that works?
It’s a lesson in tough love.
But that’s not the point I’m trying to make here today.
That’s just making sure we’re all on the same page, so that we can put this behind us and move on.
And just to make sure, I’ll say it again.
There are no excuses.
That goes for people who think they have some sort of secret insider knowledge.
What do they do with that knowledge?
What do others do with it?
Are you sensing where I’m going with this?
It’s about owning up to one’s own actions.
The same goes for people who think they have some sort of insider knowledge, sent from God himself from Heaven above.
They are responsible for their own actions as well.
Oh, yeah, and before we let the reader get off Scott-free – yes, the reader is responsible for his or her own action as well.
Whether reading a recipe for chocolate chip cookies, or reading the globalist’s plans for world domination, the reader is both responsible for reading it, and any actions that may have been taken because of it.
Sometimes actions are taken because of something bone-headed, and sometimes those actions are dangerous.
Sometimes actions taken and desired outcomes can hurt, be painful, lead to denial, or pity, or spite, or even shame.
Or action could also turn into anger.
Especially for a Gold Bug or a Silver Bug.
To have gained all the right knowledge, to have made all the right decisions, and to have taken all of the right actions, only to get punched in the gut, over and over.
It festers an anger that is quite understandable.
It’s easy to relate to.
I get that feeling a lot of the time.
There comes a point in time, however, when that anger searches for something to lash onto and lash out at.
In gold & silver.
At least for now.
Because mine was one of them that rolled last Friday.
You see, “If I only went back and read all of Marshall Swing’s prior articles when he reached out to me in October, 2017, I wouldn’t find myself typing these words on a quiet Monday afternoon”.
Wait a second, “But Half Dollar, you said that there is no such thing as an excuse. You phony”!
Good point, and you’re right.
I was trying to see if you were paying attention.
And apparently you are.
Did I give Marshall Swing such a huge platform to make such crazy claims?
Yes I did.
Now, we’ve all been there.
We’ve all bought into the crazy claims.
My wife can tell you all about all of those nights that I sprang from my bed at 3:00 AM in our house in Texas, after hearing the sound of a first responder siren, thinking the military has just taken to the streets, declared Marshall Law, and the military was going door-to-door rounding-up the dissenters.
And no pun intended when I say Marshall Law.
That’s what happens when you get your head wrapped around some crazy idea – it build and builds and builds until it comes to pass.
For me, the example I just shared was embarrassing.
What about a stacker who told his wife that silver was going to the moon because the globalists were going to pull the plug on the global economy on Friday, July 27th, 2018?
Well, I’d imagine that would be embarrassing too.
Or what if the stacker said the same thing, but not in an intimate, private moment with his wife, but to a friend, or a family member, or a co-worker?
And then it doesn’t come to pass?
I imagine that would be even more embarrassing than sharing it with the wife.
You see, until now, I never told anybody that I got wrapped-up into believing the Jade Helm hoopla, except for my wife, and while embarrassing things between a married couple is one thing, it is far worse when it extends beyond the intimacy of the bedroom walls.
There’s just something about dates.
Some people have stopped paying attention to dates long ago, but then again, some people cling to dates as if things are all of the sudden going to get better when the date finally arrives.
I stopped believing in dates a long time ago.
My wife still laughs at me to this day, which is really more a kind of pity, when the world didn’t go to Hell in a hand-basket in 2015 during the time of Jonathan Cahn’s Shemitah event.
I was caught up in the moment.
I was duped.
I actually believed it could happen.
And in the end, nothing came to pass.
And life went on for us as a family, with me and my wife being married 14 years at the time, because I didn’t re-arrange my entire life based on the prediction of Jonathan Cahn.
Here’s the problem: With any crazy, outlandish prediction, much of the prediction is based in truth, so it is easy to get wrapped-up in it.
I learned my lesson.
In fact, I learned it more times than I’d like to admit.
So I didn’t get wrapped-up in Marshall’s prediction.
I’ve been let down so many times waiting for things to happen on certain dates that I no longer expect something to happen on a certain date.
And I guess I should clarify, because there’s the whole “Moses” thing.
Because I’m sure that some people believed in his prediction before he came out and declared himself “Moses”, so readers, upon reading that particular “coming out” post, instantly stopped believing in Marshall’s prediction.
Maybe some people still believed the prediction, even after he claimed to be Moses?
I’m sure there were some.
As they used to say in the Army, “There’s always one”.
And aside from the calculations based on the Bible, there was a lot of good stuff in Marshall’s work.
He not only tried to show what the market riggers were up to, but he tried to connect globalist dots, in a “cover of the Economist Magazine” kind of way.
Even if there are no dots to be connected.
He’s not the only one to try and connect those dots, but he’s not being generic in this battle of “good vs evil” either, which is one of the reasons for so much of the lashing out.
I get it.
Interpreting the Bible with the current rigged markets doesn’t mix.
Especially when it comes to predictions.
But I gave Marshall that platform.
Yes I did.
I give many people the use of our platform, because I think it is important.
I pushed to allow comments without registration.
Compare that to a CNN that doesn’t even allow commenting.
I also welcome anybody to submit articles to [email protected]
Others will attest that they have, and I have published them.
So I’m open to opening up the platform, so to say.
But I digress.
The last thing I want is to make it sound like I’m making excuses.
I am not.
I posted Marshall Swing’s work.
Shame on me?
I do not think so, but that is what so many others have said.
What about the people who read Marshall Swing’s work?
Shame on them?
I think it’s a fair question.
Did I post Marshall Swing’s work as click-bait?
I did not.
When The Docs trained me up to run the website, the awkward transition began.
We are still the same Silver Doctors.
I guess it’s a lot like that sign “Under New Management” you see hanging from motel entrances, or up on the outdoor advertising boards of fast food joints.
The motel was doing it like this.
The pizza joint was doing it like that.
And now they’re doing it like this.
If you’re confused, don’t worry because I think I just confused myself.
Let me say it in a different way:
Marshall Swing has been a contributor here for at least six years.
When new management comes in, you don’t just fire every single person working there right?
I mean, if you completely closed down, went on a hiring spree, threw in some training, and then re-opened, well I guess you could.
But in the real world, it doesn’t work that way.
So Marshall was here, and I was somewhat familiar with the name, so I kept him on board.
Here’s the other dynamic: The signals are mixed and hard to interpret.
While one person sees the view count and numerous comments and says “click-bait”, I thought that I must have been on the right track because people kept reading his articles and engaging with other readers in the comments.
So danged if I do, danged if I don’t, right?
Can’t win for tryin’.
But again, did I do it for clicks and views?
Not in a “click here so we can get ad revenue” way of click-bait, no.
One could argue that I did it for my own development as editor.
To that gray area, I would say “yes”, but what is the purpose of wanting the click?
Some people here knew there was a transition at the website.
Others did not.
We tried to make it seamless.
Again – we are still the same company and the same people.
Only with more people now than before.
And with that comes more roles.
There can no longer be the “Jack of all trades” when there are only a couple of Jacks and too many trades.
Call it “growing pains”.
And here I sit, right there in the fight.
And with those pains came the doubt and the insults –
- Why does Half Dollar get this job?
- What did Half Dollar do to deserve this?
- Why is a big nobody running such an important website?
- Half Dollar is not qualified to run this website!
- Half Dollar is not qualified to talk about gold, silver, or the markets!
- Half Dollar is an idiot who doesn’t know what he’s talking about!
It’s funny, because I never once thought any of those things.
Three months after US Army Basic Training, I found myself in Iraq, and my squad leader said, “have you ever driven a truck before”?
And I said, “No Sergeant”.
And he said, “Good. You’re driving that one over there”!
And so I went, outside the wire, and straight into Hell.
Baptism by fire.
Well, that’s too easy.
“Have you run an active website before Half Dollar”?
“Good. Go run that one.”
“Have you written about the markets before Half Dollar”?
No, but I did blow-up a trading account.
“Good. Cover the markets and provide the best gold, silver and finance news anywhere”.
You see, I can do this, and there must have been a time when I was cocky, and I needed to prove it to myself.
Which was right about the time when everybody was catching on to our growing pains, and they started calling me out in the comments I fought so hard to open up.
Because in those early days of trying to run the site and add my own style and flair, well then came Marshall.
And so did the views.
And so did the comments.
So it was one of those self-reinforcing things that spoke to me thinking I had found the formula for success.
I guess you could say it’s like beating up a girl.
Or playing basketball against a midget.
It was too easy.
Did I recognize that at the time?
Do I recognize that now?
I get it.
I made a mistake, I got wrapped up into proving that I was worthy of my place here.
But like I said, there are no excuses.
I continued posting Marshall’s work.
To the detriment of the readers?
I don’t think so, but that’s not for me to decide.
That’s for each of us to decide, individually.
And in mass, every reader came together, and arrived at one single, profound outcome – an outcome which everybody ultimately decided for me, which came in loud and clear on Friday, which continued on Saturday, and which was still going strong by the time I stopped reading the comments sometime late that morning.
OK, “We get it Half Dollar, but what are you going to do about it”?
First of all, I’m going to be much more aware.
Now, before you think that’s a cop-out, understand that it is not.
What’s that idiom doctors like to say, “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure”?
Same thing here.
By understanding the mistakes I made, I know how not to make them in the future.
Does that mean I won’t keep making mistakes?
I’m pretty sure I will keep making mistakes, and all the time.
On this website.
With my wife.
With my kids.
If I am a pro at something, it’s making mistakes.
But I’m cool with that.
My wife has this saying, “If it doesn’t kill you it only makes you stronger”.
So I will get stronger, learn from my mistakes, and move on.
That’s sound advice for everybody, and I’m not just saying that because the first time I heard it was from my wife.
OK, “Great Half Dollar, we’re all gonna hold hands and sing Kumbaya, but what about Marshall Swing”?
That is the question, isn’t it.
To post or not to post?
That is the question.
Like somebody said in the comments on Friday, “He’s got some ‘splainin’ to do come Monday”.
But for now, well, we’ve linked to his website going all the way back to 2012, so if anybody wants to hear his “excuse” for blowing it, well, find a way to contact him.
I’m taking a break from Marshall Swing posts right now, in part due to the backlash in the comments.
And believe me, it wasn’t just the comments either.
There were also emails.
But thankfully no pitchforks and torches showed up at my door.
Maybe sometime down the line, he’ll send us something that is just some simple and straightforward COT analysis.
I don’t know.
We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.
For now, however, a cool down period is needed.
So I won’t be posting any of Marshall’s work for a least a darn good while.
But on that same token, I’m not going to say “forever”.
Anybody who actually reads what I write understands my opinion that nothing lasts for ever.
But for the time being, you can think of it like when Nixon “temporarily” closed the gold window.
I’m “temporarily” closing the Marshall Swing window.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.