Dave Kranzler shows just how disconnected statistics have become from, well, the actual statistics themselves. It’s The Big Short 2.0…
The Big Short 2.0: The NAR Whiffed Badly This Month
Based on the National Association of Realtor’s “Seasonally Adjusted” Annualized Rate (SAAR) metric, home sales were said to have ticked up 0.7% in September from August. On a SAAR basis they declined 1.5% from September 2016. In his customary effort to glaze the pig’s lips with lipstick, NAR chief “economist” and salesman, Larry Yun, asserted that sales would have been stronger but for the hurricanes that hit Florida and Texas.
This guy should do some better vetting of the data before he tries to spin a story. The Houston Association of Realtors was out a week earlier stating that Houston home sales were up 14% in September from August and up 4.2% from September 2016. Yun’s fairytale is a stunning contrast to what is being reported from Houston. But it illustrates the fact that the data on housing the NAR reports is highly suspect.
As I’ve been detailing for years, the NAR’s existing home sales report is highly manipulated and flawed. It works well for the industry and the media in rising markets, but the real estate market has rolled over and is preparing to head south. Likely rather quickly. As it turns out, the September existing home sales report released Friday reinforces my view that the market is starting to topple over. I go over the details in the next issue of the Short Seller’s Journal, with a couple examples which foreshadow a collapse in the over $1,000,000 price segment of the market. This in turn will affect the entire market. I always suspected that the “Big Short 2.0” would start at the high-end. An example outside of Colorado can found here: Greenwich Sales Plunge.
Four weeks ago I presented a housing-related stock as a short good idea. The stock is down nearly 10% in four weeks. How can this be? Isn’t the housing market hot? It will be going much lower. This week I’ll be featuring a housing industry supplier stock that went parabolic and will soon go “cliff dive.” If you want to find out more about this subscription service, click here: Short Seller’s Journal info.
Here is some of that lipstick from the NAR report:
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says closings mustered a meager gain in September, but declined on an annual basis for the first time in over a year (July 2016; 2.2 percent).
“Home sales in recent months remain at their lowest level of the year and are unable to break through, despite considerable buyer interest in most parts of the country,” he said. “Realtors® this fall continue to say the primary impediments stifling sales growth are the same as they have been all year: not enough listings
Added Yun, “Sales activity likely would have been somewhat stronger if not for the fact that parts of Texas and South Florida – hit by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma – saw temporary, but notable declines.”