SD Midweek: Florence approaches. There’s a calm before the storm in gold, silver, and the markets, but it’s not just the hurricane we have to worry about…
Hopefully everybody used the dip yesterday to buy some shiny physical silver.
Once I saw the price drop below $14, the “last” price that is, I made a very, very humble purchase of silver shortly after. I think the price I was able to purchase at was right around $14.04.
We are now literally (Hurricane Florence) and figuratively (markets) in the calm before the storm.
Talk about barely a ripple in the water, check out silver:
That’s a tight trading range – a type of “calm” if you will.
After a failed rally (late August @ $1220), gold is moving sideways with little price movement:
Call it a “calm before the storm”.
This calm before the storm is easily seen in the gold to silver ratio:
That’s six days of a fairly tight sideways trading range.
We noticed palladium starting to consolidate last week:
What is another way of saying that consolidation?
The calm before the storm.
Even platinum is generally in a sideways channel between $775 and $800:
Looking at the platinum chart, if we can call it a sideways channel, it is our longest sideways channel year-to-date (the sideways consolidation on the left side of the chart is from last year).
Of course, one thing that is rarely calm before any major storm is crude oil:
And we got a taste of that yesterday with a surge back above the 50-day.
The catalyst is being called a “huge crude draw” from existing inventories, but let’s think of some other, fundamental reasons the price of crude oil is going up.
Before the hurricane, we all know that bread, water and beer flies off of store shelves, and people top-off their cars with gasoline, fill up 5 gallon cans and what not, so that all of those generators can be fired up if needed and extra fuel for the vehicles can be stored. I get it – some are gasoline and some are diesel, but the point is they are crude oil based products. And what about all of those 50 or so Navy ships that have bugged-out of Norfolk, Virginia. That’s some serious fuel consumption there, assuming they are not nuclear powered. Furthermore, there would be increased fuel used in transportation delivering and diverting needed products and supplies to affected areas, like said bread, water and beer, and all of that runs on oil. Finally, there could be pipeline, refinery and other types of disruption to the supply chain of oil itself. I get it again, this is not the Gulf of Mexico we are talking about, but there is still critical infrastructure in the areas anyway, so we just don’t know what kind of effect this “largest storm ever” will have on the price of crude oil.
Generally speaking, this would be bullish for crude, due to the increased demand before and after the storm as I have argued, and also because of potential supply chain disruptions.
That is not the only factor weighing on the price of crude oil right now. There is also the chaos in the Middle East, and the US imposed economic sanctions. If war goes hot in Syria, or if there are some sort of pipeline attacks, well, we could see spiking prices as well.
Copper is taking it all in and acting a little, well, erratic:
Depending how vast any damage from Florence is, we could see a bump in the demand for copper.
Here’s my main concern, however, for what I envision happening over the next several days –
In short, I am concerned the Deep State will use the cover and distraction brought about by Hurricane Florence to push through some sort of major US military escalation in Syria.
That is to say, we know there are increasing war drums beating over blame that is already being cast on Assad for potentially using chlorine gas in Idlib. If there is a false flag, just after the hurricane, Americans in general will be glued to the hurricane coverage, and may very well be, in one way or another, connected to the hurricane. Therefore, to the Deep State, it is the perfect time to launch a false flag, and while the focus is domestic and on the hurricane, with the support of the MSM propagandists, escalating conflict in Syria, even more so than the 103 missiles in April, is very possible.
In other words, with everybody focused on the hurricane, “rubber stamping” escalating US military action in Syria would be easier now that the Deep State has the cover and distraction of said hurricane.
Not only that, but we are basically talking about late week, and into the weekend, just the time the Deep State and the globalists love to push their most important of agendas.
So while we didn’t get the false flag yesterday, I think the plan is on hold off until they are able to use the cover of the hurricane.
I have been looking for the Dow to top out at 2666X.XX:
Instead, what do we see?
A calm before the storm.
Do I think the Dow will ultimately top out at 2666X.XX?
Yes, I still do, however, I’m also looking for clues on the 2XXX9.XX for possible dates now because we could just as easily see a drop of 666 points, and that drop could also coincide with a coded date.
OK, “There goes O’l Half Dollar with that crazy talk again!”.
Not so fast.
True, I am not basing this on any fundamental or technical analysis, but rather, conspiratorial analysis and the fact that the evil globalists love their numbers, and they love their advanced signaling.
Their favorite number is 666, and the advanced signaling is a way of washing their hands clean, so to say, by announcing, in code, or even overtly, depending on the situation, the date in which they will have their event.
Hence the X.XX in the Dow.
For example, if we see 26669.27, then we could expect a market crash on September 27th.
Granted, I may have the wrong index, so I’ll look to see which other ones are at risk of the 666 number. Remember, the S&P Bottomed in 2009 at 666.
Jim Sinclair says markets are set according to the flavor of the day, by those on the inside, so I think it would not be a coincidence where the Dow is when the market comes down, or how far it falls, or where it lands.
I have been saying if the Dow was going to make this final, essentially 700 point surge, it would need help from the VIX.
The VIX is helping right now as it is close to dropping below 13 yet again:
A final surge in the stock market will require peak complacency.
I also said look for treasuries to be sold, so investors and traders could move from “safe” assets to “risk” assets.
Selling of treasuries increases the yield, and that is exactly what we see on the 10-Year:
Interestingly, we are also at the upper end of the range between 2.8% and 3.0%, meaning, if I am correct about one final surge in the Dow, it’s got to make that surge soon, or else the yield on the 10-Year could hit that wall of resistance, which could even be artificially enforced resistance, and start dropping back down towards 2.8%.
As for the dollar, we could call it stock market neutral right now:
That is to say, it is neither helping, nor hurting the stock market as the dollar is essentially range-bound itself.
We have a Hurricane which is about to wreak havoc on the East Coast. This hurricane could be the cover and distraction the Deep State uses to pull off a false flag in Syria, which leads to US military escalation in the Middle East.
Until the hurricane passes, and until we know if the Deep State pops something off in Syria, or God help us somewhere in the US, we are in the calm before the storm.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.