Tom welcomes Lyn Alden, Financial Newsletter Editor & Publisher, back to the program.
Lyn discusses this economic downturn. We’ve seen a rebound in some asset classes, but it will take most of 2021 to see all the effects play out. We’ve seen a weaker dollar and slowing GDP growth globally. By late 2021 the global economy should improve gradually.
She discusses the longer cycles around GDP and the dollar. She discusses the book “The Fourth Turning,” in which there is a significant restructuring of debt, roughly every eighty years. Debts get so high that there is a final rapid expansion of the money supply.
She explains the differences between monetary policy and fiscal policy. Fiscal policy has more to do with government spending and taxation. The key takeaway is that these two forms of policy begin to blend at the end of long debt cycles.
Several catalysts may drive inflation, and one of those will be commodity prices. Most commodities today, including energy, are very cheap, but precious metals generally move before the rest of the sector.
She is bearish on the dollar over the next three to five years. She says, “The petrodollar system was based on the United States having forty percent of world GDP. Expect to see a multi-polar system of currencies soon as the dollar system has become a bottleneck.” She’s favorable to holding some foreign equities and commodities, including some digital assets.
Lyn holds silver as she expects it to outperform in the coming years.
She discusses the metrics that she uses to evaluate sectors. She remains bullish on gold because of the long-term structural financial problems.
She has become bullish on Bitcoin because a large number of her earlier concerns have been addressed. The recent sideways movement is likely healthy for Bitcoin. Once it firmly breaks above $20k, there will be little in the way of resistance.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:34 – Recent Debt Cycle
2:41 – Fourth Turning Cycle
5:20 – Monetary Vs. Fiscal Policy
7:25 – Inflation & Commodities
10:24 – A Fraying Petrodollar
14:19 – Endgame Scenario
15:22 – Finding Opportunities
17:22 – Green Energy & Silver
18:33 – Gaining Silver Exposure
19:34 – Gold Exposure & Royalties
20:17 – Tools & Profit Taking
21:48 – Finding Value In Sectors
23:45 – Commodity Sector Value
25:12 – Bitcoin Fundamentals
30:03 – Wrap up