Does anybody else have that feeling of frustration mixed-in with some indigestion? You know that feeling? That feeling you get when…
Half Dollar’s Note: I will not be writing an outlook next Monday, September 7th, and US markets, in general, will be closed for Labor Day on Monday as well.
Does anybody else have that feeling of frustration mixed-in with some indigestion?
You know that feeling?
That feeling you get when you buy some reduced meat at the supermarket and even though it smelled spoiled and tasted sour, you kept on eating it anyway because you got it for $1.00 off, and now you can see the Ghost of Montezuma riding in on his Spirit Horse, but you’re not exactly sure how fast he’ll arrive with his fury or how disproportionately he’ll dish-out his revenge?
Kinda like that.
Here’s a very big part of the problem: Half of the country has lost its mind, and the other half of the country has had just a little bit too much of its fill of false hope.
And it’s not that I feel this way because gold & silver are down this week, or that I was wrong in that I have been expecting gold & silver to rally by now.
Not to make an excuse, because, well, there is no such thing as an excuse, but one of the reasons I have been wrong about gold & silver rallying by now was that I have to admit, I slipped ever so slightly into the “it’s different this time” mindset in that I was ignoring the ongoing standard cartel smash patterns and thinking that maybe the cartel couldn’t smash like they have been smashing.
More like stalling than smashing, really.
But I digress.
You know the patterns?
The patterns like the Smash-Into-The-August-Jobs-Report-And-Continue-With-Follow-Through-Momentum-To-Start-The-Labor-Day-Shortened-Trading-Week pattern?
The cartel has had some moderate success.
I’m sure all of the Chart Huggers of the world are hootin’ and hollerin’ about the imminent plunge in price from the head-n-shoulders chart pattern on silver’s daily chart.
Side Note: I won’t mention any names, but how come so many of the technical analysts out there are never capable of saying, “I was wrong”.
Now, it’s not that I’m bitter about the price decline at all.
To the contrary.
I’m happy about it because I feel confident another round of Economic Impact Payments is coming, and any weakness here affords stackers of more humble means the opportunity to convert that un-backed, debt-based fiat currency for a fatter stack of real money, Silver & Gold.
Back to the source of my ongoing, week-long frustration: It’s kind of a feeling of also being overwhelmed, and, arguably, over-run, by the myriad fabricated, propagandist dissemination of empty, distractionary information and outright lies.
Let’s go over the most egregious example from just today: The August Jobs Report.
If you haven’t read about today’s jobs report, here’s the article:
In my opinion, the jobs report is bull crap, and if you read that article, you will read several reasons why.
Nonetheless, President Trump was elated!
But don’t take ‘Ol Half Dollar’s word for it, see it from President Trump himself:
That one’s pinned to the top of his Twitter feed right now.
And to think, Trump called Fox News ‘Fake News’ just yesterday.
But hey, there’s only one person on Earth who can have his cake and eat it too, right after he rips it out of Chuck Norris’ hands, and that’s President Donald J. Trump.
Great Jobs Numbers! 1.37 Million Jobs Added In August. Unemployment Rate Falls To 8.4% (Wow, much better than expected!). Broke the 10% level faster and deeper than thought possible.— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 4, 2020
Only, there’s one problem.
See if you can spot it:
Unemployment rate only dropped because more people are out of labor force & have stopped looking for work.Not a real recovery, phony numbers— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 7, 2012
Did you see it?
If not, try again:
There’s that word again!
You don’t have to spot it on Twitter from 2012 or 2014 though, for you can hear it straight from Donald Trump himself in a 2015 interview on Face the Nation titled, and you can’t make this up – Donald Trump: We’re Living in a “false economy”
That’s nearly two full minutes of Trump explaining the various ways the US economy is false, with very specific emphasis on the jobs reports, the unemployment rate, the political rigging of the statistics, and more.
So yeah, it has been that kind of a week.
Here is a lesser but not necessarily less important example, and it is typical of the non-stop bombardment from the mainstream media.
Notice the subtlety in the propaganda itself as Reuters was planting the Nothing-Wrong-With-Ballot-Drop-Boxes seed:
I mean, are the sheeple really that oblivious?
Going into what the World Wide Wrestling League is billing as the most contested ElectionMania in US election history, with all of the riots, looting, violence, smoke, tear gas, paint balls, bullets, blood, feces, urine and more on the streets of America, and in increasing amounts, are we really supposed to see that picture on Reuters’ home-page and think that some middle-aged, well-dressed white dude properly wearing his Covid-1984 mask can just leisurely walk up to the ballot drop box and cast his stinkin’ vote in a such a sanitary, peaceful environment?
Here’s another example, and this one is, well, I’m not quite sure what to make of it just yet because I haven’t gone down the rabbit hole, nor do I have any intention of going down it.
It has to do with the shooting of the Portland Shooter.
CNN wants you to know the “suspect” who killed the “right-winger” is dead:
And yes, I’m pretty sure the dude is actually the dude in question, and I’m also pretty sure that he’s actually dead.
Here’s Fox News picking-up the story:
He went down in a Blaze of Infamy!
Here’s the thing: Dead men don’t talk.
Which is why I think that he is dead.
Here’s my point: Be very, very careful of what to believe and what not to believe about the official narrative of this story because we don’t know who’s covering-up what here, and quite frankly, attention is best placed elsewhere.
Shameless Plug Time: Michael Pento and I had a great chat about the markets and the economy yesterday:
Thank you for your consideration!
Consider platinum an even more value, value investment:
Platinum has moved back to down nearly 7%, year-to-date.
Palladium, on the other hand, finished the week in the green:
I’m pretty sure palladium is signaling what’s to come as well, which is a rally in the precious metals next week.
The gold-to-silver ratio will begin the week in the low 70s:
I won’t be surprised if we’re talking about the low 60s next week, for all the cartel has done, really, over the last several weeks, is stall the rise to create the illusion of a “healthy correction”.
OK, “Hey Half Dollar you big dufus! Everybody knows markets do not go straight-up or straight-down, so quit trying to act like you know what’s going on already!”.
Oh, there’s no acting here, for I know just enough to be an idiot, and despite my lack of knowledge, and given my inability to pretend like I’m wise, is it not safe to assume that if gold & silver have been actively suppressed in price, then there is one heck of a lot of catching-up to do in price?
If so, we could be talking about forty bucks before the month is over, and, quite possibly, new all-time highs:
Nominal highs that is, because we do seem primed for the break-out rally and next leg-up.
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, you were just rantin’ & ravin’ about the head-n-shoulders chart pattern a few paragraphs back, so who’s the hypocrite now, Mr. I’m-To-Good-To-Good-For-Honest-Writing-So-I’ll-Just-Make-Crap-Up-And-Hope-That-Nobody-Catches-It!”.
I’m not worried about it.
It’ll only be a plunge on paper at best, and if you’re not familiar with the term “premium creep”, a term which I coined myself, pun intended, and not, then read-up on it because the more they try to paint the chart with bearish chart patterns, the more bullish it becomes.
That said, they’ve succeeded in painting the lower-high:
So if we are set-up bearish here for the short-term, I think it’s the very near short-term.
Speaking of bearish, well, I’ve said all along that I do not think the lows are in for crude oil:
And that’s not the kind of weakness you want to see to end the week if you’re a bull.
I will say this, however: While I’m probably right about another trip lower, I’m probably wrong about moving down into the low single-digits.
Part of why I say that is copper has been, and is, signaling that commodities price inflation is here:
Question: Is that a “bullish engulfing” candle?
Follow-up question: Do the technicals matter right now?
If so, we could have a break-out in fear on our hands:
And wouldn’t a gap-up in fear after a long holiday weekend really make things interesting, if not exciting?
Back with another cameo appearance to present the stock market this week, here’s President Trump:
The Dow Jones Industrial just closed above 29,000! You are so lucky to have me as your President😉With Joe Hiden’ it would crash😧— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 2, 2020
I must have been on to something on Monday when I said to break-out the “Dow 30,000” hats!
Back with another cameo appearance to present the stock market this week, here’s President Trump:
Do you notice that any time Fake News Suppression Polls are put out, like @FoxNews, the Stock Market goes DOWN. We are going to WIN!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2020
Trump may not watch the stock market (his words, not mine), but thank goodness he can provide some fundamental analysis to let us know why it’s going down!
I don’t really see this being the end of the drop:
If I’m right about the stock market, then I’m probably also right about the mass layoff announcements and the worsening riots and looting, unfortunately.
Despite the Fed’s newfound love of inflation, the pressure on yield remains to the downside:
I’d say that the selling in the bond market today was to raise cash for margin calls and what not, but then I’d just be spewing the Mainstream Media’s propaganda narrative, so I won’t say it!
Just look at all of the dollar bulls coming out of the woodwork thinking we’ve been bottom-bouncing all along:
They say “the US dollar is going to make a b-line for 98, and then we’re off to over 100”.
Bottom line as we find ourselves here this beautiful Friday in early September?
Yeah, I should not have eaten that spoiled meat, but what can I say?
I deserve it for thinking that people would see through the lies.
And for thinking they would not fall for all the propaganda.
As usual, I’ve been proven wrong, and it’s a bummer.
People are oblivious, and the propaganda’s thick.
This week, it feels like a losing battle at best.
Granted, I know that we will win the war.
But sometimes it will be full of suck.
That’s how this week has been.
So if you feel this way too.
What can I really say?
This battle will end.
Very, very soon.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, a former amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.