What if this is not true and the Wuhan measures which were shown in the media were just a real life stage play?
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Submitted by Ulf Martin
A man is trapped in a room if the door is unlocked, opens to the inside, but it does not occur to him to pull rather than to push. (Ludwig Wittgenstein)
It is the first epidemic in history which is accompanied by another epidemic — the virus of the social networks. These new media have brainwashed entire populations. What you get is fear and anxiety, and an inability to look at real data. And therefore you have all the ingredients for monstrous hysteria.
It is what is known in science as positive feedback or a snowball effect. The government is afraid of its constituents. Therefore, it implements draconian measures. The constituents look at the draconian measures and become even more hysterical. They feed each other and the snowball becomes larger and larger until you reach irrational territory. This is nothing more than a flu epidemic if you care to look at the numbers and the data, but people who are in a state of anxiety are blind. (Yarom Lass)
August 2020 — In Wuhan the youth celebrates a techno party in a swimming pool. (CTV) Nobody keeps distance or wears face mask. There is outrage in social media around the world. It is irresponsible to do this in that city. Wuhan was the city where a dangerous corona virus broke out in December 2019, sending much of the world in economic and social disarray in 2020. Others counter, Wuhan is a successful winner over the virus and has all right to celebrate. This is the current narrative of the Wuhan virus story.
What if this is not true and the Wuhan measures which were shown in the media were just a real life stage play, enacted by China to confound the world, especially the Western power elite, by taking up its role assigned in some of their simulation scenarios, thereby sending them into a trap they digged themselves?
1 The Wuhan Virus as a Natural Phenomenon
Sebastian Rushworth, an emergency doctor in a hospital in Stockholm (Sweden), explains what we know about the virus by the end of October. (How deadly is covid-19?) Infection fatality rate (IFR) is somewhere between 0.1 to 0.3%, depending on the population. Mortality profile is that of the average population. Most people who die have a severe ongoing illness and are very old. Obesity is another risk. (Ballenger) There was a peak of people dying in spring because the virus was new and the immune systems of the population had not yet developed immunity. In all, the virus compares to an ordinary to severe flu or influenza.
Rushworth estimates that Sweden had reached herd immunity by July, after 4 months.
2 An Early Epidemiological Assessment
There is an Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020 by Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, Gerardo Chowell which was uploaded to the preprint server February 12 and finally published July 15. (MedRxiv) The early assessment is likely free from data manipulation which may compromise later publications. The early assessment calculates an IFR = 0.12%, exactly the same Rushworth does for Sweden. So, this could have been calculated from Wuhan data mid February. If foreign researchers can do these calculations then Chinese authorities could do them too. And they are on-site and could see the mortality profile. It is conceivable that China knew about this already in December. That would mean that the warning not to create a panic to the doctor who informed social media about the virus were justified.
3 Chunyun, the Journey of the Wuhan Virus through China
The early assessment estimates the 6-day R value to 3.49, which is about 4 for one week, or 500 for one month. The assessment estimates 2 million infected in the beginning of February. Lockdown was on January 23, one week earlier, so there must have been 500,000 infected already then, 5% of the population of 10 million of Wuhan.
Chinese New Year in 2020 was on January 25, only 2 days after lockdown. There is a huge travel season around Chinese New Year called Chunyun. This year, the official season began January 10. On January 21 the Chinese news agency reported 760 million travels in the first 10 days of Chunyun (until January 19). (Xinhua) There is no indication of travel restrictions in the report. There must have been 1 billion travels by January 23 in all of China.
The report shows a picture of a train station from January 16. There are similar pictures from January 10. (Jan 10, Jan 13) Everywhere the halls are packed with people. In Wuhan it must have looked like this, too.
One 140th of the population of China of 1.4 billion lives in Wuhan. If this is also the fraction of 1 billion travels then there were 7 million travels into, out of, and through Wuhan. There were likely many more because Wuhan is a traffic hub in Central China. If there were 2% infected among 7 million travel parties until lockdown then that would amount to more than 100,000. They would infect many others in packed stations, trains, buses, airports, planes, and so on.
If there were 100,000 infected traveling throughout China until January 23, the infection would have spread to more than 1 billion by mid March, effectively the entire population of the country.
Most carriers of the virus are asymptomatic. If there are symptoms they are those of the common cold. Untested people cannot be recognized as carriers. China reported the first cases on January 17.
It is not possible to prevent the spread across the country if one starts testing on January 17, and takes measures only two days before Chinese New Year.
4 Death Count
China has reported less than 5000 deaths. If most are from Wuhan with 10 million population and 50% infected (Rushworth’s estimate for Sweden) we get IFR = 0.1% which matches what we know about the virus. Later estimates until end of April for Wuhan are 0.3 to 0.4%. (Ioannidis study in the report by Rushworth)
With IFR = 0.12% and half of 1.4 billion Chinese infected we get 1 million who must have died with the virus. More than 100 times the reported number. But without the test the deaths are invisible as covid deaths. The severe health condition can be assumed as cause of death by the doctor.
China might have assumed it to be natural that mortally ill people eventually die, as all of the world did before 2020. And thus considered a warning unnecessary before mid January. The late lockdown made it possible that most had the opportunity to celebrate a perhaps last New Year together with their relatives and friends.
China must have reached herd immunity by mid March. It fits that the government declared the epidemic over end of March. (Zeit)
5 Corona Circus Wuhan
China could not do anything against the spread of the real virus. That it did not do anything against real virus can be seen from the pictures of the measures.
The virus spreads like all respiratory viruses by extended close personal contact, such as living together in a household or traveling together. There is no evidence that the spread can be stopped or even substantially slowed down with face masks, contact tracing, social distancing, hygiene. (EbM-Netzwerk) Only strict quarantine for all, which is impossible to maintain in a society for a long time, would actually slow down the spread.
At the time of the measures in January and February in Wuhan, some of them were known to be useless (face masks, Rushworth) or even advised against (contact tracing, WHO). In any case, the research on the effectiveness of the measures during the corona year could play no role for China early in the year.
Many measures seen on the pictures, such as full protective suits, disinfecting streets with road tankers, or wearing masks when walking on empty grass landscape, are ridiculous against the spread of corona viruses. (Reuters, NYT, WEF, Xinhua, BI, China Daily)
Pictures from China rarely show social distancing which is considered the most effective measure in the Western world. (NYT, CBS, Xinhua)
Quickly erected hospitals remained empty. (Guardian) This is to be expected, if the virus affects those most who are already under medical treatment and create no additional problem to the health care system.
The Wuhan pictures show a monstrously ridiculous action which is virtually useless against the real virus we know. However, the pictures do match the imagination of a fantastic killer virus (Püschel) breezing through surreal territory.
6 Lockdown Trick
Peter Mayer of Vienna already in June assumed the Wuhan action to be a show. (Jun 22) Later he wrote: Seen from today the pictures of January and February from Wuhan appear to be an enactment on a vast stage. (Aug 27)
Mayer considers the lockdown to be a trick: On a small part of its territory China pioneered a never seen before and medically nonsensical radical lockdown. Almost all countries followed and, like lemmings, went over the cliff of partial destruction of their economy. He sees this in the context of China wanting to beat America economically.
Mayer does not explain why the world could think that the apparent measures on the pictures from Wuhan are reasonable measures against a real virus.
7 World on Wires
In his book Chronik einer angekündigten Krise (Chronicle of an Announced Crisis) Paul Schreyer describes a series of simulation games played by executives of countries and businesses since the 1990s with names such as Dark Winter, Atlantic Storm, or Event 201. Since about 2010 the scenarios dealt with executive action against dangerous viruses.
Some critics see these simulations as part of the project of a global power elite to tighten their rule over the world population to an unprecedented extent. Whatever their purpose, the simulations are in no way secret activities, participants are known, results are published and proudly presented.
I am interested in another question: did the makers of the simulations ever check how realistic their scenarios were? Do dangerous viruses exist? All pandemics declared by the WHO since 2009 were false alarms. Did the makers check empirically if the simulated measures can have an actual effect in reality? The fact that there is no evidence for any of them now after almost a year of research, suggests they never did. The identity units in the simulations wander on unreal territory.
There was some low intensity participation by China in some of the simulations. In a simulation called Lock-Step of 2010, China is attributed the role of a country that can take most effective action against a pandemic due to its authoritarian regime.
8 Davos sets the Stage
According to Schreyer, the results of Event 201 were presented at the World Economic Forum 2020. In the results, it is stipulated that the next pandemic could not only create health problems but also an economic and social chain reaction. According to Schreyer, only after the presentation mass media went off to spread the virus news.
At Davos the Western world was represented with the respective number One of their states. (WEF) China was represented only by number Seven, the lowest rank possible of the highest body of the Chinese government (Standing Commitee of the Politburo with 7 members), one level above non-participation.
I find it conceivable that number Seven of China was sent as an observer, saw the Event 201 presentation, listened to politicians and managers talking about a pandemic and measures to be taken, and decided that China should assume the role attributed to it in Lock-Step. He might even have spotted a certain face mask predilection by some participants. (Masks4All; note that no one wears a mask in the packed Chunyun traffic)
But China never meant the measures to be real. China knew that the Wuhan virus is not particularly dangerous for the general population, so measures against it would not be reasonable. And it probably knew that the simulated measures of the scenarios would be useless against a real virus anyway.
In the Western world people think China is a hightech dictatorship that can realize sophisticated grand scale draconian operations. This may be the case. It is certainly the case that the Party can stage great propaganda shows like party congresses or Olympic games, is able to make great propaganda photography, and has 80 million members who are determined to bring China back on top of the world. Members with all kinds of skills or who can serve as actors.
Ordinary people will just do what they are being told to do. In Confucian ethics acting as if it is the case, without asking if it is real or not, is deemed a high value. (Helmut Jäger, who independently suggested the Wuhan action to be a show in June) Life in China appears to involve a good deal of social play-acting. People grow up doing this, it is second nature to all.
And the Chinese State Circus is world famous.
Plus, performing a big show is a lot cheaper than actual hightech measures.
If true it where virus news from Davos which launched the virus hysteria. China took it up and put a great show on Wuhan stage which looked like the actions in the simulations. This increased the hysteria because in the imagination the apparent monstrosity of the actions must match a real danger. This is not an ordinary virus! cried one email to me in March. The constituents took Wuhan for real and demanded similar action by the governments who thook them for real too. Other events increased the hysteria, for example the pictures from Italy. Then came the high peaks of dead in some regions — which may have been in part the result of the panic already, for example by fantasy medication like high-dose HCQ or the flight of care home personal because of the announced lockdowns. Thus was triggered the snowball effect that carried the world onto irrational territory, where some regions remain at the time of writing. — China went to see if the world leaders would fall into a trap they had digged for themselves, and most did.
9 Exit Handles
Herd immunity allows China to play any game in the pandemic. It is the precondition to win each of them.
When China declared the end of the epidemic it said the virus is no longer found in the country. So it does border control and contact tracing, and quarantines persons to prevent outbreaks. If the pandemic ends with the virus going away, China opens its border and has successfully contained the spread in its country as the simulations want it to be. — Outbreaks do not happen with herd immunity either.
In some countries the pandemic ends if there is a vaccine. (PI News) China pretends to have already two vaccines for travelers to foreign countries. However, there is not a lot of other information available at this time. (JPMorgan) Isotonic saline solution would be sufficient for those with natural immunity, and it has no short or long term side effects.
If it turns out that the story presented here is true, can one say China is responsible for having sent the world over the cliff of economic self-destruction?
China will say it is not its business to clarify a public health situation in other countries and act rationally. Sweden can do it, so any country can be expected to be able to do it. That politicians in many countries chose to bypass persons or bodies responsible for the assessment of public dangers is their own business. (Examples: CH, AT, DK, DE) That executives and constituents are drowned in social media and simulacra, believe in dangerous viruses, and take science fiction scenarios for real, thus live on irrational territory even without a monstrous hysteria, is not the fault of China. And due to the negative image of China, an all-clear signal would have been interpreted as a lie anyway, so no communication of a false alarm was possible.
China is ready for any conceivable outcome and will be a successful nation.
10 Coronation Medals
The economic advantage for China is obvious. It has only one negative quarter, recession is defined as two in a row. In the rest of the world the governments have sent their societies into recession, some continue to do so during winter 2020/21.
The West tells the rest of the world that its people are oriented toward freedom and democracy. In the pandemic anxiety, people demanded all freedom canceled for measures they thought were protective. Protective against a virus as dangerous as the regular old influenza, which no-one is the least bit frightened of, and which we don’t shut down our societies for. (Rushworth) What value does freedom have if you give it up for nothing just because you are anxious and lack the will or ability to clarify a danger rationally?
What are the Western values worth now? It is possible that the corona year has cleared away a good amount of resistance to a possible Chinese world politics of a just and inclusive globalization. (Rügemer) The philosophical concept behind this is a New Tianxia, All Under Heaven, a world system which guarantees general security and participatory benefit for all of humanity. It is not a new system of domination but a system for the protection of an inclusive world. (Zhao Tingyang) If only a fraction of China’s political world view is like this it may already be the better offer for many countries than the West’s.
The domination of the world in the past and present by imperial powers is based on the state and national interest. (…) The imperialist world view sees the world as an object of subjugation, domination, and expropriation and not as a political subject. (Zhao) It may be that many countries only did lockdowns because the IMF demanded them to do so for further credit. (IWB, Wiesendanger) What if China creates a Tianxia Bank which credits Tianxiabi (world currency) to any nation without conditions or intrusion into internal affairs but for mutual benefit? What if the dependent states then collectively declare their default in dollars to the IMF? This would render the dollar worthless and might trigger the collapse of Western superimperialism. (Hudson) It is perhaps time for the Western world for a different understanding of China.
The societies of the world went into a state of collective neurosis. The Mao era was an era of one psychosis after another, so China has some experience with such states of society. The societies of the world must have made themselves great subjects to psychological analysis.
Some Western countries have declared conflict with China. Now they have damaged their own societies by lockdowns. This is like an army that wants to wage war but then sees ghosts, gets crazy, and damages its own weapons in a state of fear because it had the impression that the declared enemy did the same thing. — How will a Chinese politician or business person approach a lockdown politician in the future?
China has a great advantage without waging a war. There is few material damage. The economic desaster in some countries was caused by their own politicians, not by China. Most people who have died who would likely have done so during the year. In a war people die for whom this is not the case. And they die from violence. — Two essential differences.
11 The Great Reset
If the story here is true, the creators of the Corona Circus Wuhan must have had the entertainment of their life time. People of the world doing mask distance dancing according to the beat of the absolute test case count. The nations of the world are performing a World Circus Corona for China.
While there were news from other cities, China mostly sent messages from Wuhan such as a correction of the death count, mass testing, school openings, beginning of normality. (Xinhua Apr 17, Jun 3, CBS, NYT) Like a clown who occasionally runs through stage to keep the action going. The word Wuhan triggered a conditional mass and social media reflex. The pool party did so for the last time. — The tourism boom in Wuhan now in October has not caught media attention. (Xinhua) The pool party visualized the end of Wuhan as a territory of anxiety.
China continues to publish pictures with people wearing face masks. They make no sense if there is no dangerous virus in the country anymore. But there is a good reason for Chinese actors to wear face masks — to hide the grin.
With surreal simulations and a twisted China image the Western societies have locked themselves down into a Great Reset, a great leap backward. (WEF) This does not appear to be of great concern to the pool party youth of Wuhan. (BBC)
The author was active in the altermondialist movement in the early 2000s and has tried to understand this weird world and its wannabe dominant species ever since. (CC BY-NC-SA, Ulf Martin 2020)