Do we really have a booming US economy? Judge for yourself in this one single Tweet versus one single paragraph about the exact same news…
First, the Tweet:
Steel Dynamics announced that it will build a brand new 3 million ton steel mill in the Southwest that will create 600 good-paying U.S. JOBS. Steel JOBS are coming back to America, just like I predicted. Congratulations to Steel Dynamics!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 28, 2018
And then the paragraph from the Steel Dynamics press release of its announcement (bold and red bold added for emphasis):
The company currently expects to locate the facility in the southwestern United States, to cost effectively serve not only the southern United States, but also the underserved Mexican flat roll steel market. Determination of the final site location is subject to state and local government infrastructure and incentive support. Upon final site selection and the receipt of required environmental and operating permits, the company would expect to begin construction in 2020, followed by the commencement of operations in the second half of 2021.
So let’s break it down in layman’s terms:
Steel Dynamics may or may not build a steel mill somewhere in the Southwestern US, depending on the amount of welfare provided by state and local governments, and the operation of the steel mill wouldn’t even begin until late 2021.
Will President Trump even be President if and when operations commence at the proposed Steel Dynamics mill?
What if we enter recession by then?
I think those questions are valid.
As for a little analysis, if ‘Ol Half Dollar was a bettin’ man, he would put his money on El Paso, Texas as the location of choice.
I’ll answer that with a question: What are the average wages of a production (i.e. steel mill) worker in El Paso?
$13.74 per hour.
But don’t take ‘Ol Half Dollar’s word for it, see for yourself.
That said, there are really several reasons which come to mind as to why Steel Dynamics would chose El Paso –
- Low wages as stated (hence Steel Dynamic’s stated desire to “cost effectively”).
- A generous local government (El Paso, Beto O’rourke is US Rep from there) that hikes taxes to directly subsidize businesses (See El Paso Chihuahuas as a recent example).
- Ability to use undocumented (i.e. illegal aliens) for labor, with the appropriate kick-backs given to the right politicians, regulators and authorities of course, and if the bribes and corruption fail, then H1B visa workers because somehow they just can’t find the right kind of labor for the mill.
- If they really want to sell steel to Mexico, then El Paso is the place to locate the mill being right there on the border.
What can learn from the single Tweet and the single paragraph?
There is a lot of hype, but in reality, hype is all we have.
In a nutshell, there may or may not be 600 jobs, jobs which would be taxpayer funded and government subsidized in one way or another, available somewhere in the Southwestern United States, in late 2021, and the way things are going now (see GM for example), companies are learning to promise one thing in order to get on President Trump’s good side, as well as to get the free publicity that goes along with getting on the President’s good side, but when push comes to shove, those same companies will simply renege on their promises.
Or am I seeing this wrong?
I don’t know.
Because it sure looks that way to me.
But then again, I don’t see a booming US economy at all.
I see a fast-approaching economic collapse.
If I’m wrong, and if we do have a booming economy, then there is nothing to worry about.
But if I’m right about the economic collapse?
That’s a rhetorical question.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.