The outlook for the economy and the markets among the vast majority of CFOs is getting increasingly pessimistic. Here are the details…
A vast majority of chief financial officers in the United States say that the economy will sink into a recession by the end of President Donald Trump’s first term in 2020, and about half say it will happen next year. Many are predicting a recession in 2019 and an all-out market crash in 2020.
According to an article by Newsweek, almost half of corporate CFOs (49 percent) say that the U.S. economy’s decade-long growth streak is set to collide with worsening debt woes. And that will manifest with the country facing a recession by the end of next year. Corporate finance leaders are preparing for the recession to hit within 18 months, and 82 percent of CFOs interviewed in the latest quarterly Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey expect the U.S. to slide into a recession by 2020.
This survey was completed on December 7 of this year and consisted of responses gathered from more than 500 CFOs, including 226 from North American companies.
“The end is near for the near-decade-long burst of global economic growth,” said John Graham, a finance professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and director of the survey, in a statement. “The U.S. outlook has declined; moreover, the outlook is even worse in many other parts of the world, which will lead to softer demand for U.S. goods.”
The CFOs, who appear to be increasingly pessimistic about the U.S.’s economy, say thatseveral economic markers have only worsened since the Great Recession a decade agoand that they now predict earnings growth, capital spending, and research and development investment to fall. The CFOs said most growth will occur at the beginning of next year, which still gives the government time to “soften the fall,” Graham pointed out.
“All of the ingredients are in place: a waning expansion that began in June 2009, almost a decade ago; heightened market volatility; the impact of growth-reducing protectionism; and the ominous flattening of the yield curve, which has predicted recessions accurately over the past 50 years,” said Campbell Harvey, the founding director of the Duke/ CFO survey.
Economists have repeatedly issued warnings in the past several years about skyrocketing global debt caused by central banks flooding national economies with cheap money. In 2008, global debt was only $177 trillion, compared with $247 trillion today. In the U.S. economy, household debt has dramatically worsened, automobile loans are far exceeding their 2008 peaks, and unpaid credit card balances are just as high as the period preceding the Great Recession. -Newsweek