“Brexit 2.0” This Is Why Trump Is About to STUN The Markets

panicLousy Data Run Without Context – Eric Dubin Explains Why Trump Is About to STUN the Markets: 

 

To ZeroHedge’s credit, Tyler notes the latest VoteCastr data “may simply be a way to sway public opinion during the voting day, or at least push the market higher.”

Here’s what Tyler doesn’t know:

CLICK HERE FOR FULL TND Election Analysis:  Eric Dubin

The way survey polling is used in our public relations infused media system shapes perceptions.  Right now, VoteCastr reporting on Iowa is a textbook example.  As of 11:45am Eastern Time, Votecaster’s model of expected votes observed reports that Clinton is expected to win 48.5 percent of the popular vote to Trump’s 43.5 percent.  But here’s the rub, and you can see what’s really going on by comparing shifts in surveys and by using less politicized, scientific polls.

 

Iowa has a 40 day early voting period and Clinton’s ground game in the State have her a major 22 point lead over Trump – but again, this was only for early voters.  Over the last couple of weeks, it’s now clear that Trump is totally dominating the field when it comes to the remaining two-thirds of voters who had yet to cast a ballot but indicated they were going to vote.

Last week’s scientific poll from The Des Moines Rigister / Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Clinton by 7 points in Iowa.  The Register notes:

“Voters who have already cast their ballots represent 34 percent of poll respondents. Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who haven’t voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32.”

ZeroHedge accurately warns that the VoteCastr data is problematic.  But you can easily see how headlines and data like this reported at other websites and on broadcast media is being spun and twisted into painting a picture that Clinton is leading in battleground states.  When it comes to Iowa, that’s false, and the regional survey polling STRONGLY suggests that the VoteCastr model isn’t worth a hill of beans.  

It’s being used as a new “tool” for the media.  It’s crap.  It’s clear to me we are facing a repeat of Brexit with a so-called “surprise” Trump victory because headlines like this capture what Wall Street traders think is happening, but the VoteCastr model sucks:   “Why Stocks And The Peso Are Surging: “VoteCastr” Reveals Early Clinton Lead In Most Battleground States.”  Trump is going to carry Florida and may even take Pennsylvania, to the horror of the Clinton campaign.  But the voting machines are on the case in Pennsylvania, with one township reporting voting machines switching Trump votes to Clinton before the eyes of voters casting the vote:  “Voting Issues: Some Trump Voters Reporting Ballots Switching To Clinton.

Click here for the informative poll published by The Des Moines Rigister.

Check back with The News Doctors later today for more analysis.

>>>> RELATED:  Can U.S. Elections Really Be Stolen? Yes! Professor Mark Crispin Miller Addresses Electronic Voting, Exit Polls, Trump’s Claims and More – Click Here

trump-hero

Mr. Dubin is the Managing Editor of TheNewsDoctors.com. He has 25 years of experience as an independent buyside securities and global macro analyst. He has well over a decade of experience as a financial journalist, editor and political analyst. He’s primarily an autodidact, but his formal education includes degrees in economics, international relations and MBA. He welcomes feedback on his articles and will make an effort to respond to comments. Email Eric by sending to “Eric” and then @TheNewsDoctors.com. He can also be “followed” on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/EricDubin

 Iowa has a 40 day early voting period and Clinton’s ground game in the State have her a major 22 point lead over Trump – but again, this was only for early voters.  Over the last couple of weeks, it’s now clear that Trump is totally dominating the field when it comes to the remaining two-thirds of voters who had yet to cast a ballot but indicated they were going to vote.

Last week’s scientific poll from The Des Moines Rigister / Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Clinton by 7 points in Iowa.  The Register notes:

“Voters who have already cast their ballots represent 34 percent of poll respondents. Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who haven’t voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32.”

ZeroHedge accurately warns that the VoteCastr data is problematic.  But you can easily see how headlines and data like this reported at other websites and on broadcast media is being spun and twisted into painting a picture that Clinton is leading in battleground states.  When it comes to Iowa, that’s false, and the regional survey polling STRONGLY suggests that the VoteCastr model isn’t worth a hill of beans.  

It’s being used as a new “tool” for the media.  It’s crap.  It’s clear to me we are facing a repeat of Brexit with a so-called “surprise” Trump victory because headlines like this capture what Wall Street traders think is happening, but the VoteCastr model sucks:   “Why Stocks And The Peso Are Surging: “VoteCastr” Reveals Early Clinton Lead In Most Battleground States.”  Trump is going to carry Florida and may even take Pennsylvania, to the horror of the Clinton campaign.  But the voting machines are on the case in Pennsylvania, with one township reporting voting machines switching Trump votes to Clinton before the eyes of voters casting the vote:  “Voting Issues: Some Trump Voters Reporting Ballots Switching To Clinton.

Click here for the informative poll published by The Des Moines Rigister.

Check back with The News Doctors later today for more analysis.

>>>> RELATED:  Can U.S. Elections Really Be Stolen? Yes! Professor Mark Crispin Miller Addresses Electronic Voting, Exit Polls, Trump’s Claims and More – Click Here

trump-hero

Mr. Dubin is the Managing Editor of TheNewsDoctors.com. He has 25 years of experience as an independent buyside securities and global macro analyst. He has well over a decade of experience as a financial journalist, editor and political analyst. He’s primarily an autodidact, but his formal education includes degrees in economics, international relations and MBA. He welcomes feedback on his articles and will make an effort to respond to comments. Email Eric by sending to “Eric” and then @TheNewsDoctors.com. He can also be “followed” on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/EricDubin