BLS: Not Only Did Hurricanes Affect Employment – They Affected Data Collection

Not Monday humor. We didn’t know the BLS collected anything, let alone data. However, Everything will soon get back to awesome...

The Bureau of Lies and Statistics wants you to know, before all else, that they are unable to reliably collect any data right now:

Since they take their data very seriously, they want us all to know they can’t collect it, and apparently, there is no contingency planning. Hmmm…

Effects of Recent Hurricanes on BLS Data Collection and Reporting

Several U.S. states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands suffered heavy damage from three major hurricanes in late August and September 2017. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have affected data collection in many BLS surveys. Here is a summary of those effects. We will continue to update this page as more information becomes available.

Hurricane Harvey first made landfall on Friday, August 25, in Texas and caused catastrophic damage there. After returning to the Gulf of Mexico, Harvey was downgraded to a tropical storm and then made landfall a second time on Wednesday, August 30, in Louisiana.

Before Hurricane Irma hit the lower Florida Keys on Sunday, September 10, Irma already had caused severe damage in St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico also suffered damage from Irma. After moving north from the Keys, Irma made landfall again later on September 10 on Florida’s southern coast. Irma was a Category 5 hurricane when near the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Irma dropped to a Category 4 when passing through the Florida Keys, then a Category 2 hurricane when hitting mainland Florida.

Hurricane Maria made landfall in St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, September 20, causing catastrophic damage. These areas already had suffered damage from Hurricane Irma earlier in the month.

Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey)

The reference period of the establishment survey is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. People are not counted as employed if they are not paid for the entire pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Hurricane Harvey made landfall before the survey’s September reference period. Hurricane Irma made landfall during the September reference period. As a result, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma affected September payroll estimates for the nation, Texas, Florida, and other areas.

National data

More information about how Hurricanes Harvey and Irma affected September 2017 national nonfarm payroll data, including survey response rates, is available at https://www.bls.gov/ces/cesharveyirma.htm. Data for September were released Friday, October 6, 2017.

National nonfarm employment estimates do not include Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more information about employment estimates for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, see the State and Metro Area information below.

State and Metro Area

The estimates of employment, hours, and earnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands are published by BLS in the State Employment and Unemployment news release. Puerto Rico also produces geographic area estimates with guidance from BLS. These estimates are published in the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release.

Because of the devastation caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands were not able to conduct normal data collection for their establishment surveys. Given the lack of adequate sample data, reliable September 2017 estimates for Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands cannot be produced at this time. BLS plans to publish revised August 2017 estimates on October 20, 2017, for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. BLS will continue to monitor the situation and will produce estimates for these territories when adequate sample data become available.

Employment, hours, and earnings estimates for Texas, Florida and other areas affected by the hurricanes will be released on October 20, 2017, in the State Employment and Unemployment news release.

Current Population Survey (Household Survey)

Hurricane Harvey made landfall well before the September reference period for the household survey. Hurricane Irma struck Florida on September 10, at the start of the September reference period (Sunday, September 10, through Saturday, September 16, 2017). The U.S. Census Bureau began collecting data for the household survey on Sunday, September 17. Data collection started somewhat later in areas severely affected by Hurricane Irma. Throughout the collection period, the Census Bureau closely monitored response rates in these areas and in areas severely affected by Hurricane Harvey.

The household survey has two measures that show some of the impact of bad weather on employment and hours at work. The survey collects data on the number of people who had a job but were not at work for the entire reference week due to bad weather. These people are counted as employed regardless of whether they were paid for the time off. The household survey also provides a measure of the number of people who usually work full time but worked part time (1 to 34 hours) during the survey reference week due to bad weather.

Current and historical data on people who were not at work for all or part of the reference week due to weather are available on the household survey’s most requested statistics page. September data were released Friday, October 6, 2017.

The Current Population Survey is conducted only in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. National household estimates do not include Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more information about labor force estimates for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, see Local Area Unemployment Statistics below.

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Puerto Rico conducts its own monthly household survey, patterned after the Current Population Survey, to produce labor force information for Puerto Rico. The estimates are published in the State Employment and Unemployment news release. Puerto Rico also produces labor force estimates for geographic areas, with guidance from BLS. These estimates are published in the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release.

Because of the devastation caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria, Puerto Rico was not able to administer its household survey for the September 2017 reference period. To date, there has been very limited contact between BLS and the Puerto Rico Department of Labor staff. BLS continues to monitor the situation.

The U.S. Virgin Islands do not conduct a household survey and, therefore, do not participate in the Local Area Unemployment Statisticsprogram.

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Island statistics at a glance are available at:

https://www.bls.gov/regions/new-york-new-jersey/puerto_rico.htm#eag

https://www.bls.gov/regions/new-york-new-jersey/virgin_islands.htm#eag

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Just to be sure, however, the IMF is on it. So not to worry:

And they take the integrity of their data very seriously.

And when all else fails, Fed Head Bill Dudley wanted to remind everybody that “above-trend growth” is “tightening the U.S. labor market”. In addition:

The economy has made great strides in recovering from the Great Recession, as the unemployment rate has fallen from 10 percent to 4.2 percent, aided by accommodative monetary policy.  Measures of underemployment have also improved considerably and are near pre-crisis levels.  Stronger labor market conditions are perhaps the best means to improve the economic well-being of most Americans, particularly those who have been struggling and are most vulnerable to economic downturns.

And if there is still any doubt that everything is awesome, well, he did Make America Great Again:

See:

Pure awesome!