Back To School, Back To Major Uncertainty & Disruption Not Priced-in (Gold, Silver, Stocks, Etc)

You can’t price-in ECONOMIC COLLAPSE when you’re still collapsing…

I’d like to share a hodgepodge of random thoughts to start the week.

Tik Tok

If you have a teenager in the house, they’re using Tik Tok.

Here’s the question: How do you get Cold War 2.0, not to be confused with The Cold War, against the CCP, not to be confused with the CCCP, into American households, front and center?

Through the kids, of course!

So the attack on Chinese Social Media is brilliant from the Ministry of Propaganda’s perspective.

Here’s the honest question: Are American Social Media companies not just as bad as the Chinese ones?

Arguably, American tech companies are just as bad as Chinese tech companies, but the United States needs a scapegoat, and while the coronavirus is great for certain things, such as blaming for the sudden economic collapse, China is great for other things, such as blaming for the ongoing economic woes.

We did, after all, have the Super-Duperist, Biggest-Most Awesomest In All Of History And History Still To Come Trade Deal With China (Phase 1, Non-Binding) you know!

Follow-up to the honest question: Aren’t many American Tech Companies in bed with the Chinese in one way or another?

Nonetheless, these geo-political, crony-capitalist, corporo-fascist back-and-forths are interesting developments to watch, especially for a techno-centric world facing de-growth and the End of Globalization.


How’s that back to school workin’ out for ya?

Ask any parent, and I’m pretty sure they’ll tell you it’s One Giant Custard Fudge.

Anecdotally, I’ve spoken with many parents, which includes family, friends, colleagues and more, and it’s all one giant crapshoot of uncertainty.

For example, in one school district, there are 4 different public health levels coinciding with three different modes of operation, which could change on any given day, and depending on what level the district is in, kids will either go to school, in person, for four days per week, for two days per week, or for zero days per week, and the rest of instruction is the so-called remote, online learning.

SIDE NOTE TO SCHOOL DISTRICTS: From an actual tech expert to apparently a bunch of idiots in charge of running the schools, if you force children to work all day long on a crappy, eleven-inch screen Chromebook with specs so lousy that a Texas Instrument calculator from 1993 could out-perform it, you should be ashamed to call yourselves administrators, and if by any chance children are forced to perform their school work on a tablet all day long, well, I guess I’m the idiot for not realizing the whole point to all of this isn’t education and learning anyway but indoctrination and rote memory of insignificant details, so the ability to actually be productive is moot.

But wait, there’s more!

That’s right!

Because depending on the age of your kids and what grades they are in, the different public health levels will mean different things, so one child may end up being in school, in person, for two days per week while the other child is in school for four days per week, and if that weren’t enough to juggle at one time, single mothers and dual income earners be danged, the school district will be unable to provide busing to high school students, and carpooling can’t be the answer because that’s in direct violation of the district’s social distancing rules!

I could go on and on and on about the situation unfolding in school districts across America.

Some school districts have worse plans for the upcoming school year, and some school districts haven’t even finalized their plans yet!

Here’s the question: Is any of this disruption or uncertainty priced into the markets, let alone into the budgets of the school districts?


Who hasn’t begun to tighten the belt yet on the family budget, or, at the very minimum, saved more?

Let me explain.

Yesterday I went to my local Costco.

They had toilet paper in stock, for the first time that I’ve seen since March, and while I wasn’t going to Costco for TP because I had to buy it at a more expensive, less preferred retailer the week before, I was going for ham, and they had freakin’ “Limit 1 Per Member, Per Day” signs in the refrigerated delicatessen cases for the one product (besides Popsicles, don’t judge) I was going to Costco specifically to buy.

I do have a point to make here, and I’ll make it as a question: Combine supply chain disruptions with, to this day, my family’s significantly less fuel consumption, and we buy fuel at Costco and use the savings on our fuel purchases to justify the purchase of a Costco membership, and why exactly are we paying for the privilege to shop when Costco is always out of stock on what it is we need or is always limiting the amount of what you can buy, which is another reason for getting a membership in the first place?

But wait, there’s more again!

There’s nothing to watch on Netflix!

That’s what they say.

I don’t watch TV or movies, so I don’t know, but I do know this: That stinkin’ service has gone from a non-service to less than nine-bucks when I started subscribing several years ago to nearly fourteen stinkin’ bucks today!

Why am I paying for that again?

And Hulu, without commercials?

And Disney?

And YouTube Red?

See where this is going?

Is any of this priced-in to the “markets” yet?

And to think, I didn’t even ramble today about Trump, or False Flags, or anything like that, and the bottom line is that America still has a long way to fall.

If silver outperforms gold this week, the gold-to-silver ratio should fall below 80 once and for all:

For where we are in the cycle right now, anyway, and that’s assuming no global monetary resets, which I would not assume.

Some people are saying no all-time highs in silver until next year:

I think they’ll be proven wrong, for not only should we see all-time highs this year, but very, very soon.

I do like gold consolidating near $2,000:

Especially if gold & silver are in self-reinforcing, virtuous confirmation and re-confirmation cycles.

Palladium may have found its short-term bottom:

I’m really liking the series of higher-lows and higher-highs, which to me speak of perhaps just one more in the series on the way to new all-time highs.

Deeper-pocketed investors take note of platinum:

Platinum is still in the red, year-to-date.

If copper is in a sideways channel, we’re testing support right now:

As a barometer of the overall health of the economy, however, since Main Street is not testing support, but rather, still in critical condition, one could argue the health of the overall economy as being “stagflationary” at best, and that’s not good at all!

Crude oil is approaching the moment everybody’s been waiting for:

If I were gambling in the rigged-casino otherwise known as the Wall Street, which I’m not, my funny money would be on the downside because of the fundamentals, at least before the move into rapid price inflation brought on from the debasement of currency.

It looks like we’ve got a dead-cat-bounce on the US Dollar Index:

That’s nothing that some good old-fashioned stimulus from Uncle Sam couldn’t take care of this month!

Side Note II: If willing and able, Monetary Resets aside, if on the receiving end of a fiscal stimulus check. saving in real money, as in, Gold & Silver, is probably the smart move to make.

OK, “Hey Half Dollar, what about in the event of a Monetary Reset?”.

Then you’ll either have your physical Gold & Silver in-hand ahead of time and be protected, or you will get burned by the financial fire.

It really is as simple as that.

Regardless, while pension funds and the like must invest in US Treasury’s, any individual buying US Government Toilet Paper at these yields is an idiot:

I mean, have you ever held a US Treasury in your hand and tried to cash-in that sucker?

I have.

And failed.

I simply gave up trying with all of the flaming-hoops one must jump through just to get one of those dang things cashed.

OK, “Hey Half Dollar, everybody knows that nobody is buying Treasury’s for the yield, but for front-running the Fed!”.

There’s a saying about that, you know, and I think it has something to do with pennies and steamrollers, but yeah, for now there is the front-running, but sooner or later, the Laws of Economic will apply, and we’re much closer to the “sooner” than we are to the “later”.

There’s so much uncertainty as I’ve tried to explain in a collection of random thoughts above, but where you won’t find it is in the stock market:

Training wheels are nice, sure, but do they really help if you ride over the edge of a massive cliff?

Speaking of massive cliffs:

Wouldn’t Deep State Globalists just love drop-kicking some lemmings over the cliff, for fun?

The bottom line as we find ourselves here this beautiful Monday in early August?

It’s back to school time, but it’s more like back to even more uncertainty.

Has all of this uncertainty been priced-in to the “markets” just yet?

What about household savings, and the tightening of the belt?

Those families that can save and tighten are doing that.

Those who can’t are broke, dependent on Welfare.

China is nice because politicians can point.

Even though they should into a mirror.

Though the economy’s collapsing.

And they do need a scapegoat.

So it’s those dang Chinese!

Those dang commies!

Ruining recovery!

‘Twas V-shape!

But now it’s?

An arrow.




Stack accordingly…

– Half Dollar


About the Author

U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, a former amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.

Paul’s free book Gold & Silver 2.0: Tales from the Crypto can be found in the usual places like Amazon, Apple iBooks & Google Play, or online at Paul’s Twitter is @Paul_Eberhart.