2 Huge Problems On Main Street Spell Disaster For The 2020 Holiday Retail Season (In Spite Of Any Economic Impact Payments)

Trump’s bet on hyperinflation is on full display today, and Gold & Silver should benefit from a busy and possibly chaotic week in the economy and markets…

This is going to be one busy week for the markets and the economy, so be prepared for an onslaught of information through Friday.

In the backdrop, we have ongoing coronavirus back-and-forth between the End of the Worlders and the Biggest Hoax Of All Timers, and amidst this backdrop, if political theater in Washington is your thing, there’s the whole Supreme Court nomination and apparently some huge breaking news about President Trump’s taxes, again.

From Bloomberg (bold added for emphasis and commentary):

President Donald Trump paid just $750 in U.S. income taxes in both 2016 and 2017, reported losing millions of dollars from his golf courses and has hundreds of millions in debt that will come due in the next few years, according to a report in the New York Times.

Trump paid no income taxes in 10 of the past 15 years because he generated large losses that offset any money that he made, according to the Times analysis of at least two decades worth of Trump’s personal and business tax returns.

While we’ve had the whole Trump the Tax Dodger meme played out in varying degrees over the last several years, starting before the 2016 election really, with the whole Donald Ducks meme, I don’t think we’ve had details quite like this before, if they are indeed accurate details.

Nonetheless, notice the bet Trump is making on US Dollar hyperinflation!

Shameless plug time: Speaking of hyperinflation:

Thank you for your consideration!

Now, as I was out and about conducting some field research this weekend, I have some interesting observations to report.

The long story short is that it looks like 2020 is going to be a terrible holiday season for consumers as well as a disastrous one for retailers, for no less than two reasons.

SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS AND THE LACK OF STUFF

It really is amazing how little the stores are stocked right now.

Is anybody else noticing that the shelves of stores frequented by shoppers in America are less than half full?

Making matters worse, when it comes to a lot of stuff that people actually need, I would say the shelves are less than 33% full.

Here’s the question: If retailers can’t even keep their shelves stocked with their regular, everyday items, how are they going to have any kind of holiday season, which is also the busiest season of the year for retailers?

People have said these supply chain disruptions are temporary, but are they?

I mean, the apologists, armchair quarterbacks, and enablers want everybody to think the recovery has begun, but if the recovery has really begun, wouldn’t supply chain problems be getting solved?

At times, this makes me think of Cuba, and yes, I’m talking about the little island nation, and while I’ll be the first to admit I get a ‘D-‘ in Cuban History, I will say that the nation quite literally got frozen in time, so to say, which is why you see all of the old cars still rolling around the streets today!

And the scary thought is, what if they’re freezing America in time, meaning, the year 2020 is the best we’ll ever get for at least many, many decades to come?

Yikes!

If the plan is to collapse the US economy to bring down the American Empire, then why would the Deep State Globalists not want America stuck in time?

Anybody ever been to Roswell, New Mexico?

Um, yeah.

Kinda like that.

INCREASED COSTS OF DOING BUSINESS

Looting and rioting aside, It sure looks like businesses have had to spend a lot to adapt to government mandates and orders.

Many retailers have employees sitting by or at least monitoring the entrances, and several of the stores will have hand sanitizer at the entrance, with some stores even making masks available, and while I haven’t seen a cashier clean off those nasty credit card readers in months, retailers are quick to make it known you’ve got to wear that mask and do your part!

Here’s the thing: The employee now gets paid more, because so many employees have quit, or whatever, and a dumbed-down labor pool to choose from means that common sense is a valued commodity, which commands a slight premium over the typical North American Zombie, and, of course, there’s the whole virtue signaling thing like when companies say, “in recognition of the increased risks Blah Blah Blah Employees are taking during this pandemic, we are pleased to announce that effective immediately, we are increasing our base pay for all hourly employees from $9.35 per hour to $10.35 per hour!”.

Oh, geez.

How nice.

Additionally, retailers are dealing with increased regulatory costs and/or proactive measures costs, such as installing plexiglass screens and other barriers at the check-out isles, deploying fancy social distancing stickers, and bling such as cordoned off areas, and myriad costs that were not costs before because they were not things that businesses would have normally spent money on were it not for officialdom’s edicts.

All of this adds up to pressure for Main Street in general and retailers specifically.

The home stretch of 2020 is not looking good for the home team.

Indeed, the Heartbeat of America Index isn’t doing all that well:

When the Russell 2000 is down over 10 percent, year to date, where exactly is the recovery on Main Street?

Side Note: Pay attention to the Birth-Death Model this Friday, which is part of the BLS Jobs Report, because if memory serves me correctly, the government is claiming that on net, more than 1.2 million businesses have started than have closed down over the last four months!

Seriously!

And pathetically!

We’re getting closer and closer to the most contested election, ever, so they say, which means we could see a spike in fear:

Of course, in my opinion, any fear, of lack there-of, is the result of manipulation, but still be on the lookout for buzzwords and phrases like “October Surprise”.

Yield on the 10-Year Note is an absolute joke:

While yield is an absolute joke on the screen, as digits in the ether, if you’ve ever actually owned a bond or a note, in actual paper form, as I’ve had, just try cashing that thing and you’ll see it’s a downright disgusting joke.

In fact, I’ve given up on the two paper bonds that I own, for now, because it’s such a pain in the butt to cash them in.

The dollar bulls must be getting pretty nervous right now:

Are we even going to make it to 95, and what about 100?

Copper is building a massive base at three bucks:

If the US is indeed turning Socialist, then a massive infrastructure build in the name of the Green New Deal would require a lot of copper, even if most of the infrastructure spending gets subjected to fraud, waste and abuse.

Crude oil continues to see very little movement:

For now, prices seem stable, but all things considered, especially the US dollar, that stability could turn inflationary in the blink of an eye.

Platinum is down about a hundred bucks, year-to-date:

If everybody is expecting a strong performance to finish the year in the precious metals, which even some of the permabears are expecting, then why would platinum not also finish the year nice and strong?

Palladium continues to drift sideways with bias to the upside:

The breakout will come for palladium, too, but I wouldn’t expect it to be as violent as the breakouts for platinum, gold & silver.

Because gold is the traditional Flight to Safety, and it’s still trading below par to palladium:

Don’t let the bearish chart formation in the short-term fool you, however.

Real, physical gold has been bid, is bid, and will continue to be bid.

The gold-to-silver ratio is beginning the week at 80:

In my opinion, silver has now sufficiently outperformed gold to the downside of this “correction”, which is reflected in a rising paper gold-to-silver ratio, which means I think the rally in both metals is set to begin from this level.

If you can find it, real, physical silver is a steal for under $25:

I’d say that here in late 2020, take that deal all day long because it surely won’t last long.

Bottom line as we find ourselves here this beautiful Monday in late September?

There are many dynamics on Main Street that people aren’t seeing.

With the lack of supply and the increased costs, watch out!

People wonder where the money velocity has gone?

It’s coming fast as the crack-up boom has begun.

You know the charts of the money printing?

That have gone vertical since March?

Um, yeah, it’ll be kinda like that.

Only, it’ll also be much more.

The Death of the Dollar.

It is hyperinflation.

For Christmas?

Look around.

Could be.

Indeed.

Yes.

Stack accordingly…

– Half Dollar


 

About the Author

U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, a former amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.

Paul’s free book Gold & Silver 2.0: Tales from the Crypto can be found in the usual places like Amazon, Apple iBooks & Google Play, or online at PaulEberhart.com. Paul’s Twitter is @Paul_Eberhart.

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