Yes, we know your games. No, we don’t like it when you rub it in our faces. But could you at least do it with care next time?
For whatever reason,with information to which we are not privy, the economy is in bad shape. Very bad shape. In fact, things are so bad, that everything that shows the smallest semblance of weakness is being scrubbed.
Over at CME Group, there is a little memory hole operation under way. See folks, it is not possible to “fat-finger” a spreadsheet. This one’s deliberate.
They also thought that nobody was looking, because other than Silver Doctors and to little fan fare, this flew under the radar.
Last week SD broke a MASSIVE PARADIGM SHIFT. The news did not make it far though. Between the nuclear war threats and the violence and chaos in Virginia, whoever is trying to erase this information thought that he or she was in the clear.
And so we have this bold face lie:
Today, 08/15/17, The CME Group released their “Fed Target Rate Probabilities” chart. Looks like a whole lot of “meh”:
So the economy is in a solid recovery, and while just last week there was a 100% probability of the Fed holding interest rates where they are in September, it seems like some people are getting bullish, because we were not at 100% hold, but at a “majority hold” with a slight “minority hike”.
This would be fine and dandy, except there is one small problem, and that is the CME Group is telling a bold face lie.
This is the probability as shown on August 11th, 2017:
You see, it is not “all bulls as far as the eye can see”, but rather, on August 11th, there were serious doubts surfacing about the whole economic recovery narrative, so much so, that a not insignificant amount of people decided that interest rate cuts were warranted.
If that cat was let out of the bag, that, my friends, is what you call a paradigm shift. Call it a game-changer. Call it whatever cliche you choose, but don’t call it an economic recovery.
If that tiny, insignificant, less than 5 percent number was left to stand, it would have represented a complete reversal and admittance that this US economy is toast. Burnt toast. And nobody likes burnt toast.
The CME Group just had its “Oh Shit” moment, and they were sloppy with it.
Interpretation for markets: Get ready for a BULLISH FOMC MINUTES, increased Mortgage Applications, and better-than-expected Housing Starts on Tomorrow, Wednesday, 08-16-17.
Interpretation for Goldbugs and Silverbugs: BRACE FOR IMPACT.