We are keeping a close eye on supply, and now, official sales numbers are re-affirming the analysis. With just two days worth of September data, physical demand is picking up steam, and faster than Irma can hurl a beach chair…
This has been a very poor year for the US Mint. In terms of gold coin sales, we have seen several months this year in which NO Gold Eagles of a certain size were sold:
The figures above are for the Gold Eagle program. Gold Buffalo coins are counted separately. Also, American Gold Buffalo coins come in 1 oz only, as opposed to a variety of weights like the Gold Eagle.
The US Mint releases sales data every Tuesday. Since Monday was a federal holiday, we have essentially coin sales on two days only (Friday and Tuesday), assuming the data includes Tuesday sales. In those two days here in early September, the mint has sold nearly 33% of the amount of 1 oz Gold Eagles it sold in the entire month of August.
Silver Eagle sales are picking up too. The pick up started at the end of August. Here’s the latest analysis from SRSrocco:
According to the updates on the U.S. Mint website, Silver Eagle sales surged by 300,000 on Monday, August 28th and another 300,000 on Tuesday, August 29th:
What is also extremely interesting about the recent U.S. Mint Gold and Silver Eagle sale figures, is that the silver to gold buying ratio is now above the 100 to 1 ratio. The U.S. Mint sold 1,025,000 Silver Eagles vs. 9,500 oz of Gold Eagles in August (so far). Thus, the Silver to Gold Eagle sales ratio is now 108 to 1. Which means, investors are purchasing a great deal more Silver Eagles than Gold Eagles during these tumultuous geopolitical, natural disaster and upcoming financial events.
It will be interesting to see what happens with precious metals demand and prices when the U.S. debt ceiling debate becomes an issue next month. Also, there is speculation that there will be a significant correction in the broader stock markets this fall. If we do see a significant correction in the broader markets, I would imagine we will see a surge in the price and demand of gold and silver.
This is exactly what happened to the precious metals at the beginning of 2016 when the Dow Jones fell 2,000 points in a relatively short period. In just two months as the Dow Jones sold off just 2,000 points, the silver price increased 17%, and gold jumped 20%.
Craig Hemke is reporting on the massive increase in GLD Inventory:
Yesterday saw the 2nd-largest one day surge in GLD “inventory” in the past five years. What does this signal, if anything at all?
What is curious sometimes is the timing of the the Authorised Participant (Bullion Bank) alleged additions and withdrawals. Most recently we noted a stretch of 16 consecutive withdrawals over the period from June 26 through August 7. The total amount of “gold” withdrawn from “inventory” over that time was 66.81 metric tonnes.
Just in the last few days, as we can see, it is obvious gold and silver demand is picking up. Demand for physical gold and silver is picking up, as well as the demand for “paper gold” via the GLD, which we’re quite sure the MSM is fine with steering people towards.
On top of all of this, we posed the question about supply, refining, and logistics and possible disruptions to the just-in-time metals inventory. It’s not just amateur weatherman saying this one’s a beast:
— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) September 6, 2017
Sure, the US Mint’s coffers are full right now, but we know that can dry up faster than President Trump can sign a three-for-one Irma Emergency Declaration with bonus Harvey Aid and Debt-ceiling extension.
And so there is another storm brewing, but this one is in precious metals physical supply. And we are most certain it will be to zipped-lips across the MSM, until the “pet rock” jokes and “barbarous relic” smears are needed. We will see very soon if this storm gets upgraded.