“We have updated our complex wave ^ii^ count on the Daily Gold Chart and now believe that all of wave $b$ could be complete at the 1369.40 high.”
Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, SP500, & GDX
Short Term Update:
Gold traded sideways in yesterday’s day session and lower in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1341.50.
We have updated our complex wave ^ii^ count on the Daily Gold Chart and now believe that all of wave $b$ could be complete at the 1369.40 high.
We should now be moving lower in a subdividing wave $c$ as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Wave !i! of $c$ likely ended at 1335.60 and wave !ii! at 1356.70. We should now expect gold to fall sharply in wave !iii!, if wave !ii! is complete at the 1356.70 high.
All of wave $c$ should at least reach the wave $a$ low of 1309.00, but more likely to our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^. Our 50 to 61.8% retracement zone are:
50% = 1301.90;
61.8% = 1286.90
A break of the lower up trendline forming wave !c! will confirm that all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1369.40 high.
Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!
Short Term Update:
The S&P was higher in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are up about 17 points.
We are now working on a subdividing wave .iii. drop, as shown graphically on the Daily S&P Chart. We believe that all of wave *i* of .iii. is likely now complete at the 2585.89 low, and we still appear to be working on a complex wave *ii* correction.
We are still little short of our 50% retracement level which is 2693.90, so we expect higher prices ahead, as shown on the 120 Minute SP500 Chart.
We continue to hold above our red up trendline line and once we break and close below that line we will know that all of wave *ii* is complete. The drop through the red trendline will be very interesting to watch as it should lead to a very big drop in this market. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave *iii* when we are sure that all of wave *ii* is complete.
Our retracement levels for wave *ii* are:
50% = 2693.90;
61.8% = 2719.38
Our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:
.iii. = 1.618.i.= 2251.49
Trading Recommendation: Short with a stop at the 2802.00 level.
Active Positions: Very Short stop at 2802.00!
Short Term Update:
The GDX was a little lower in yesterday’s trading session.
As you can see on the Daily GDX Chart we have updated our count to suggest that all of wave ii is NOT complete at the 20.84 low.
The current corrective pattern for wave ii looks to have become a complex double 3 wave pattern, of which we are about to complete our second wave (b).
We need to trade to at least the 23.15 high, to satisfy the minimum requirements for our second wave (b).
Upon completion of our second wave (b), we expect a drop in our second wave (c), to at least the 20.84 low, to complete all of wave ii.
Our current counts for some long term charts as follows, although we could see some updates based on where the GDX is heading.:
Kinross: We completed wave -ii- at 2.88 and we are now rallying in a subdividing wave -iii-. Within wave -iii-, we should move higher in wave ^iii^. The alternate is that wave -ii- is not complete at the 2.88 low and that Kinross will move back to that level before are of wave -ii- is complete.
Barrick: Wave (ii) ended at the 11.07 low, as shown on the Monthly Barrick Chart. We have now started to rally in an explosive wave (iii) very soon, which has a projection of 39.47.
HUI: Wave ii ended at the 170.81 low, as shown on the Long Term HUI Chart. A subdividing wave iii higher is now underway with wave ii ending at the 168.45 low.
XAU: We completed wave -ii- of (iii) at the 75.65 low and we are now rallying in a subdividing wave (iii).
Trading Recommendation: Buy all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long term hold. Buy more on any price weakness into the $20.84 area!
Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!
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Captain Ewave & Crew!
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