Gold is undervalued to the point of idiocy. But silver? Silver is in another universe.
This is a clusterf*ck. All those “crazy” price targets of silver at $1,000 or more? They’re not crazy. In fact, we have a set-up where we could go to $150 silver over the coming 12 months, and then, we hit a blow-off top that takes less than a year to reach $1,000, $2,000+ an ounce.
By Eric Dubin:
I wouldn’t be surprised if half of the JPM silver “horde” doesn’t exist and that they’ve screwed clients ala Morgan Stanley (the only mega investment bank to have been officially busted in the last 50+ years for not having customer precious metal in allocated and segregated accounts). Ted Butler et al. have this wrong too. It’s not clear how much fraud we’re talking about, but hey, we’re talking JPM.
Gold is undervalued to the point of idiocy. But silver? Silver is in another universe. And this extended GSR makes it all the worse, because when people get over the fact that there ISN’T available above ground hordes of silver anywhere close to sufficient size to deal with a new Silver bull market, we could end up with a GSR below 10 VERY QUICKLY. Hell, just by the odd sort of crap that has evolved in the last 2 decades of this price suppression and exploding use of industrial/medical uses of silver, we’ve got a seriously explosive situation here. Forward mine supply is crashing and it will keep on crashing even if silver rose 50% in the next 3 months because to much damage has been done and when a sector crashes and forward supply is crushed as it already started to have been crushed, it takes time for an industry reboot – no way around that even if the underlying asset recovers in a “v” shaped move.
At the very time investors start to go nuts for silver, and even with a global economic crash, the inventories of freely available silver are NOT going to meet demand for any buyer category. Remember what happened when Ford Motor Company freaked and bought Palladium in, what was it, 2000, 1999? I forget the year – one of those two. But they freaked, and the market exploded as Ford bought to make sure they had enough for catalysts. That’s a nice little metaphor. Now, we’re going to see a scramble from all sides – investment demand and even industrial demand (because the industrial buyers are simply not going to have a choice even with a global economic depression because 450 million ounces of industrial demand is not going to zero even with a depression and the investor demand is going to go absolutely BONKERS).
Just to make a point, if silver hypothetically witnessed industrial demand crash to 100 million ounces, those industrial demand buyers will still be largely “price inelastic” buyers – no where near as sensitive to rising prices given the small percentage of “final cost” represented by the small amount of silver used in most industrial/medical/etc. applications relative to overall cost of the end product. – and there will be zero “slack” on the supply side of the equation because investment demand will have already sucked all the oxygen out of the room. When we have an investor mania that has reached the retail level and things are going bonkers to the upside, things are not going to unfold for industrial demand as some people think. YES, industrial demand will crash, but that’s not what will be the most important thing that will happen. These industrial buyers will still be price inelastic. So, at the exact same time everyone – even retail – is going bonkers on the investment demand side, the smaller demand coming out of industrial will be all the more FREAKED OUT TOO, fearing they will not get any supply at all. Extending my hypothetical illustration, in that scenario, an industrial market clamoring and willing to pay massively higher prices will prove to be one hell of a tail wind to investor demand.
This is a clusterfuck. All those “crazy” price targets of silver at $1,000 or more? They’re not crazy. In fact, we have a set-up where we could go to $150 silver over the coming 12 months, and then, we hit a blow-off top that takes less than a year to reach $1,000, $2,000+ an ounce.
Difficult to say just how material the probability of such an explosive scenario truly is, but the thing is, it’s way more than just zero probability, and almost no one has understood the “feedback effect” potential of a lesser industrial demand that’s highly motivated and scared to death. $1,000+ silver would break EVERYTHING ($500/silver probably would break everything). Gold would follow (and sometimes, it would be leading). Something like this could end up being a nuclear winter worse than 1929-1941. It would force a global banking and monetary reset too. And the oligarchy would execute a cashless society, because bail-in models don’t work other than the address of one-off pimples of small, dying institution, not systemic cancer.