SD Outlook: If that’s the Globalist/Deep State plan, it will be one of the rare occasions where the cartel lets gold & silver rally. Even rally hard. Here’s why…
There is plenty going on this week on the events calendar.
Just look at all those Fed Heads on Tuesday and Wednesday:
With eight speeches planned over two days, that’s enough Fed Heads to make anybody’s head spin.
Notice the housing data on Wednesday. It also continues on Thursday:
In addition to housing data, which has been pitiful lately, and in stark contrast to the booming economy portrayed by the Fed, the White House, and the mainstream financial press, on Friday we get the first
fabrication estimate of 3rd quarter GDP. With the Fed heck bent on hiking until something breaks, the GDP print on Friday will have little to do with the course of path for interest rate hikes, but for our purposes, we need to be on the lookout for blunt force hammering of gold & silver.
Under traditional circumstances, the MSM won’t relate the GDP print to gold as they will simply ignore gold whenever possible, but there could be a fleeting sentence within some article on Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance, or CNBC which goes like this, “with an economy that is clearly humming along, investors feel less of a need to buy gold as seen in the 2% decline today blah blah blah blah blah”.
The real question is whether gold & silver can finally get their groove on?
An even better question is is the plan to rally gold & silver for political purposes?
More on that later.
Last week I talked about marking time, or a hamster running in its wheel, and we see a continuation of that last night and this morning, especially in silver:
At this point I’d take a trip back down to $14 so I can add more to my stack instead of just churning away here between $14.50 and $14.75.
That marking time in the 1-minute chart above means you have to look really hard to see silver’s developing candle on the daily chart:
If we can put in a weekly close above $15, that would be bullish on the chart, although with the brutal agony of all year, I’m not looking for a burst back into the sideways channel of pure agony.
Here’s the thing – charts matter in that if the cartel sets them up in a certain way, they can get investors and traders to do the lifting for the cartel, and looking at silver’s daily chart above, the cartel has painted it to near perfection, with heavy resistance between $15.25 and $15.50, and then again with heavy resistance at $16. So it is not going to be easy. I haven’t said this in a while, and it seems so far off at the moment, but I do think that once we close above $17.50 on the chart, that we will be above $18 in just a matter of days, but while the cartel has conditions in their favor, they will fight us for every penny along the way. Unless, of course, the plan is to let the metals rally, for political purposes, which we will know soon enough. More on that later.
Why does the cartel have conditions in their favor in such that it will be hard fought for us for every penny in silver?
Well, the Fed and the White House, even though they currently seem at odds with one another, are both boasting about the economy, and politically & geo-politically, while there is tension, it seems as if investors are lulled into a state of complacency that assumes nothing bad will come out of all the tensions internally and around the world.
Then we have peak Fed and peak Trump, which are forces to be reckoned with of their own merit.
What would change conditions to favor a rise in the prices of gold & silver?
A continued decline in the stock market would, something happening in the economy in which from the Fed or the government can no longer cover-up the phony statistics, clear evidence we have peaked in my Peak Trump theory, or something popping off globally with a geo-political event or even a military conflict.
Aside from those things, I think we really need to get past the mid-term elections. Thankfully they are only a little more than two weeks away, and if either the Democrats gain ground, or if the mass arrests don’t happen, especially by the end of November if we don’t see top Deep Staters in GITMO, we will have the winds of change we need for gold & silver to rally hard.
It’s not just gold & silver that have suffered under my Peak Trump theory. I recall the gun manufacturers are struggling as well. It reminds me of how the meme went around that Obama was the best gun salesman ever. On that same token, President Trump is probably the worst.
Basically, we really need to show evidence of going over the peak. From now until the end of November, here’s evidence we could look for:
- Something happening with Trump and immigration (wall, illegal alien caravan, etc)
- Democrats show of force in the mid-terms (Trump’s inability to have political influence)
- US caving in on the trade wars
- Lack of mass arrests/military tribunals (will show it was all a stall tactic from the beginning).
I think Mike Rivero summed it up best. I have been thinking this whole Qanon phenomena was an elaborate marketing campaign ultimately deployed and working for the President’s re-election campaign, but what Mike said in a recent interview makes a lot of sense. Now, I’m paraphrasing here, but it basically went like this:
Qanon is a psy-op designed to get people to be passive, instead of taking matters into their own hands, by always saying that “it’s about to happen”, or that “it’s coming” or “the plan is unfolding”. By using Qanon, the political class in the US doesn’t have to worry about the masses organizing because the masses are being duped into believing there is a group of insiders acting and ready to carry out the arrests, tribunals, and all those other things to bring the Deep State to justice.
In other words, without Qanon, there could already have been pitchforks and torches in the streets of Washington, but with Qanon, we have a passive Patriot.
So if by the mid-terms, and especially by Sunday, November 11th (Veteran’s Day), we don’t see significant “lock her up”, “send ’em all to GITMO” type stuff, that will be the clearest evidence to date that we have peaked in the theory.
Gold moved a little more than silver last night and into this morning, but not in a good way:
If gold can just hold here, however, and silver can begin to catch-up to gold, performance wise, the chart is not that bad.
We know that the rallies generally follow a certain pattern, and we are seeing that:
Notice especially the last few weeks on the chart.
What we need to see, which we have, is gold to begin to rally first and out-perform silver. We see that indicated in the gap between gold & silver over the last week or so. Therefore, if gold pauses here and silver plays catch-up, that would be a bullish, good sign that we may have finally bottomed (which I think we have) and that silver is now catching-up to gold and beginning to out-perform it.
The gold to silver ratio is reflective of this initial gold out-performance of silver:
If I’m right about the bottom and coming rally, then we would look for the ratio to start coming down and soon.
Palladium looks like it wants to run here:
That is a good sign for the precious metals space in general.
Let’s see if platinum can put in an all-important higher-high this week:
If platinum can do that then there really is reason to be optimistic about the sector in general.
I have been saying the next moves for copper seem to be to the upside:
My reason is fundamental at its core: If we are in this booming economy (which I don’t think we are), then there will be increased demand for copper. If we have a recession or worse, which I think we will, I think we would finally see that infamous “infrastructure spend” and that would increase demand for copper. It’s a win-win for copper.
Let’s see if crude oil gets back above its 50-day moving average this week:
There is a lot of political premium that could not be priced-in to the price of crude. Recall that the Saudis threatened $400 oil last week. Additionally, there is the political tensions and sanctions with Iran, the basket case of Venezuela, and raggedy, explosive pipelines in Africa. All in all, there is reason to think crude oil could have a political uncertainty premium added to it, and that doesn’t even take into account that the dollar is still around 96. If the dollar starts falling, which I think it will, that would have an effect on crude oil prices all on its own.
Here’s the cartel save of the S&P 500 at the 200-day moving average:
I don’t think we are done falling, however. I think the pain is only beginning, and with two weeks to go until the mid-term elections, if the globalist and/or Deep State plan is to truly tank the markets for Democratic talking points and to “blame Trump” for the crash, then these will be a rocky couple of weeks.
I think that could indeed very well be the plan, and if so, it would start this week.
Volatility is hovering around 20 as we start the week:
If the VIX starts spiking again, we could really begin to see the broader stock market indices break, crack, and start falling again.
With the dollar starting the week near 96, if gold and silver are on the cusp, then so is the dollar:
We have technically not put in a higher high on the last bounce, and I really don’t see the dollar spiking from here, especially if the stock markets start dropping. All that international “hot money” will be looking to sell their stocks and convert their dollar profits back into their local currencies.
Of course, a lot of this depends on the yield of the benchmark Treasury:
If we take out that recent high, what would that mean for the stock market?
It would mean trouble.
And so here we find ourselves, looking to see if gold & silver can finally get their groove on.
Now on to my main and final point about “the plan”.
Yes, this is speculation on my part, but hear me out.
The assumption (not just by me, by the way) is that the plan is to tank the stock market and blame President Trump.
If that is the plan, that is good news for gold & silver.
This would be one of those rare circumstances where the globalists and Deep State could use rising gold and silver prices to their advantage. It would go something like this, “A rising gold and silver price is a vote of ‘no confidence’ in the President or his economic policies”.
In other words, if the plan is the globalists and/or Deep State are going to blame the President for a market crash or economic downturn, then they will want to get the most bang for their buck in these two weeks before the mid-term elections, and they will want to “shock-and-awe” the markets to borrow a phrase from the first Iraq War.
If that is the case, we can look for silver to blow through those resistance levels with ease.
And gold could be above $1300 or even $1350 in no-time.
An economic downturn takes time to roll-out, but a stock market crash? In these rigged and manipulated markets?
That’s too easy.
We will know in less than two weeks, and it is even likely they begin this week, so as to have maximum “shock and awe” effect.
It is not just me thinking this is the plan.
There are many in the alternative media speculating this same scenario.
This week is crucial, and quite possibly pivotal.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.