SD Friday Wrap: Is the Deep State collapsing the economy to slow-burn President Trump? Regardless, the markets look dire. Very dire…
This is important:
I was chatting with my buddy earlier. He was asking me why the metals were just nose-diving all day?
This was a short conversation I had with him in a chat (and I’m leaving the text original and raw just like I fired it off to him):
What’s the nose dive for?
not sure…they smashed on the jobs report, but it’s rather brutal…in the back of my mind, i think people are taking profits here because the stock market may be ready to come down….It’s a long shot, but in 2008, right before the markets crashed, gold & silver nose dived before skyrocketing. Silver even went to $8! This is more than just a simple slam. Somethign is very wrong in the markets. If people are getting “margin calls” and they have positions they are up on, they will sell those whch are profits to cover their losses on margin. Not sure, but there’s a storm brewing in all markets. Bond market is blowing up. Stocks finally starting to drop. Crypto crashing and VIX spiking. Somehting big may be ready to go down. the quetsion is: Will the Fed come in and save it or let it go down. Thats my thoughts…
XXXXXXXXXXX pretty much said all those facts to me earlier today that’s crazy
yeah…we’ll see…dow down 400+ points right now, and the yeild on the 10-year is surging as the 10-year bond price has crashed 40% since mid december…these are major convulsions…
As I type, the Dow is down 600+ points.
The more I think about it, the more I feel that there is something terribly wrong in the markets.
This leaves more questions than answers:
Is this a market take-down?
Who is doing it? Good guys or bad guys?
Is this the crash?
With the release of the FISA memo and a full year of trying to get President Trump as either a deranged lunatic or a Russian conspirator, the Deep State was unable. Now, what if the Deep State crashes the markets to leave President Trump virtually ineffective. After all, this is his market success.
This Sunday is Super Bowl Sunday.
Lots of fans will be distracted watching the game, many will be intoxicated on their mood altering substances of choice, but what if this Sunday Night turns out to be one of those Sunday Nights where an announcement is made by the President, on national television, during a time when basically everyone would be watching the television.
Nixon closed the gold window on a Sunday Night:
Will President Trump make some market changing announcement? Or Be the Bearer of Bad News?
Major financial, political and geo-political events happen on Sunday Nights.
That’s just how it is.
Here’s the first chart:
That’s from the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
Silver crashed from $20 to $8 over the course of many months, but notice that silver bottomed before the stock market bottomed (that wouldn’t be for another five months).
People took their money out of the markets, and as more and more took their money out of the markets, that money began moving into the precious metals.
Are we seeing this play out again?
As a side note, silver dropped to $8, but there was none to be had at that price. Likewise, if silver gets low enough this time, then people will either not sell or premium spikes will just to negate the “paper” price of silver.
Gold was in short supply too. Dealers were limiting the amount of metal customers could purchase because there was none to be found.
The metal went into hiding, just like it would if silver dropped to some ridiculous amount today.
So back to my thinking: It’s quite possible we are witnessing the beginning of the end for the stock market, or even something far more nefarious.
Because gold and silver didn’t just drop today, they dropped hard.
Could we be witnessing the metals dropping in advance of a stock market plunge?
Think about it. Politics are in chaos right now. And all markets are in chaos right now.
- Bitcoin and the cryptos are crashing
- The bond market has arguably topped and is now crashing
- The stock market has arguably topped nad is now crashing
- Volatility is spiking
- The metals are in a serious drop right now when everything is gold & silver bullish
Silver has lost half of its December rally:
That’s a nasty bearish candle that smashed through both the 200-day and the 50-day today.
On the weekly silver doesn’t look much better:
That’s a massive “bearish engulfing” candle on the chart.
We look at gold, and we can see on the weekly gold is holding up much better:
But that’s not saying much.
Gold’s performance relative to silver can really be seen in a comparison on the daily chart:
There is a clear under-performance in the white metal.
Here’s the GSR over the last month:
Here’s a 10-year gold-to-silver ratio to see just how bad things have been since 2011:
That is also a taste of things to come because the ratio is coming down one way or another, sooner or later.
Look, we knew there would be pressure and cartel bombing runs all week. I warned of that on Monday.
Between President Trump’s SOTU Address, Yellen’s final FOMC, and a BLS Jobs Report friday, we knew they were going to bring the heat, especially since they stopped the upside momentum at the end of December (in silver especially).
But this is something different.
There is chaos in all markets. It’s not just gold & silver.
Which is why I keep pondering if we are not on the cusp of major trend changes – as in the stock market bubble popping?
Bitcoin crashed by more than 50% over the last month:
Was that a sign of things to come, which we are just now seeing in the other markets?
Look at this surge in interest rates, especially since the Fed hiked by a whopping 25 basis points in December:
That is a huge loss on the price of anybody holding US 10-Year Notes.
On the weekly, we can see where we’ve come on yield since bottoming out at 1.34% on the 10-year in 2016:
Which is one of the reasons why this could be the start of something larger.
And the metals could be set to surge higher here.
Because rising interest rates are good for gold.
Because gold is a hedge against inflation.
And the rate at which they’re raising is good for gold.
Because real rates are still negative, meaning consumer prices of good & services are rising faster than interest earned on savings, and certainly faster than income, so that is good for gold because while gold doesn’t pay any interest, it maintains itself as a store of value in the face of negative real interest rates.
Everything said for gold can be said about silver too.
A stock market crash is good for gold.
Because gold is a hedge against uncertainty.
Gold and silver are “safe haven” assets when all else comes crumbling down.
They are the ultimate stores of wealth over long periods of time.
Crude isn’t “crashing”:
To the contrary, it’s put in a textbook pullback on the charts. And look at the 50-week moving average fast approaching the 200-week moving average.
Looking back at the Global Financial Crisis, crude climbed for most of the year before crashing with everything else:
Which is another reason why we may be at the start of major, major trend changes (as in a crash in the bond and stock markets).
If crude’s gonna keep on climbing, it will do so until, as everything else is crashing, the crude price will be too much of a burden to bear, it will not be affordable because the people will be devastated financially, and thus crude will crash as well later on.
Look at the timing back in 2008. Uncanny: Crude peaked int mid-July before major fireworks.
What do we have this year in mid-July?
Well, Marshall Swing has a Prophesy that the Global Economic Collapse will be Friday, July 20th or Friday, July 27th.
Copper is riding it’s 50-day:
If I was to pull up a graph of 2008, it would not look like the 45-degree angles we see in crude, but it would show rising until everything started crashing.
See the theme here.
There’s indicators that something is very wrong in the markets.
Palladium dropped notably:
Although after three down weeks in a row, we might wonder how far it will drop before recovering?
But if the crash is coming, we we could see safe haven demand for palladium too not that it is a monetary metal.
The same can be said for platinum which got hit as well:
Platinum is now down two weeks in a row.
The dollar has put in no bounce of any meaning:
But also think about it this way.
There’s turmoil in markets around the globe.
And if people are selling – Bitcoin, bonds, stocks, etc, then it stands to reason that the dollar would bounce as people demand more dollars to get out of the markets and get on the sideline with cash.
Which is why, looking back up to the Dow/Silver chart above from 2008, we see that the smart money bought gold & silver as the stock market was still dropping.
The bounce in the dollar could easily turn into a drop again as those dollars are converted into the two true safe haven assets: Gold & silver.
I’ve been saying the VIX has been waking up, and sure enough, it sprang out of bed this week:
But before I show the last chart, understand this:
That is the same bubble we have right now:
Which President Trump is taking all the credit for.
Everybody is singing President Trump’s economic praises.
Even the President himself.
Is it any wonder why this is happening?
The Dow is down 665.75 points today.
The Dow is down 666 points if rounding.
So think about a few things here:
- FISA Memo released (Russian Collusion story dead)
- All those people accused of sexual harassment dropping their careers like flies, re-sparking the accusers of President Trump (but it failed)
- President Trump’s crazy – invoke the 25th amendment and get him out because he’s nuts (that’s failed)
Now think about this:
- President Trump owns the U.S. economy, he’s tweeted a thousand times how America is MAGA and it’s all because of him
- President Trump says the stock market rally to record high after record high is all because of him
So here’s what it means:
What if the Deep State is bringing down the economy – they are going to crash the stock market,they brought down Bitcoin, they are crashing the bond market, and they have hit gold & silver and taken the metals as low as it can possibly go – all to render President Trump ineffective?
This is his economy, and it will be his fault that there is a new financial crisis.
And there’s no more Yellen.
And when there is a lot of pain – pain on Main Street, drawn out over this year (mid-term) and next year (2019 presidential candidate hopefuls) going into the 2020 Presidential election, the Deep State will have accomplished two goals:
- Trump will not get re-elected because the economy will be in shambles
- The Deep State gets in the driver’s seat, and they drive us down the dark path towards a totalitarian police state, which was the Deep State’s main goal all along.
It bears repeating: They may be moving on to the next step to render President Trump ineffective, bring on a whole bunch of pain, economic pain, and the people will be begging for change.
And that is when we get somebody ten times worse than Hillary would have ever been.
Let’s hope this is not the plan, let’s hope for the best but plan for the worst.
And by worst, I’m talking about economic collapse – the big one everybody’s forecast for so long now.
As in Venezuela meets Baltimore and spreads it’s love all over the United States.
If you don’t have your stack completed, there may not be much time left.
Gold & silver will eventually rise and rise in price on the quick as the rest of the markets come down.
Will silver go down to $8, $10, $12, or $14 first like in 2008?
Don’t hold your breath.
But if silver does go that low, real physical silver would disappear from the market.
It’s not worth the risk to wait on a silver price crash because premiums will spike and erase some imaginary paper price if the cartel takes silver down really low.
Said differently: The train is about to leave the station. Get your ticket and get aboard.
Don’t play the waiting game.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.