SD Friday Wrap: Gold, silver and the markets are all about to change, BIGLY! Here’s why…
Editor’s Note: Just a friendly reminder that we have moved the SD Metals & Markets to Saturday mornings at 8:00 a.m. EST.
First off, let me be clear: I am not saying gold and silver are going on some “moonshot” in the very near future.
What I’m saying is that the President just forced the top in the dollar rally, so this means the bottom should be in for gold & silver.
You see, when the President talks, he can move markets.
From back in January, in Davos, recall this:
That just threw me for a loop because It wasn’t until I just watched that video above (first time since January) that it sunk in what the President said:
“Number 1, I don’t like talking about it [the dollar] because frankly nobody should be talking about it [the dollar]”.
More on that later.
To my point, the President said on January 25th, 2018, “the dollar is going to get stronger” and “I want to see a strong dollar”.
The way the “markets” moved to that statement can best be seen with silver:
On January 24, 2018, silver surged on Mnuchin’s weak dollar comments. That’s a pretty impressive candle on the chart for that day.
But look what happened in the metals as soon as the President said that he wanted a strong dollar. The plunge began, and off into the sideways channel of pure agony we went.
We know what happened since: It’s been pure agony for silver investors (at least for those who want the price to rise).
OK, “But Half Dollar, past performance is not indicative of future results”.
Yeah, but look, the strong dollar is crushing exports right now just as the US is in the beginning stages of a trade war.
Additionally, a strong dollar is putting a squeeze on emerging markets.
Furthermore, last month we had a huge trade deficit with China. In fact, China had the largest trade surplus ever with us in June.
So this brings us to yesterday, Thursday, July 19th, when President Trump expressed his not liking a strong dollar:
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) July 19, 2018
Let that sink in for a moment.
The President is saying the strong dollar “puts us at a disadvantage”, and that is evident by the three things I just mentioned above, and that’s not all of the disadvantages either.
It begs the question: Why is the President coming out and talking about the dollar, when just six months back he said that he didn’t like talking about the dollar, and that nobody should be talking about it?
Obviously the President is concerned.
I’ve been saying for some time that there are very serious problems in the economy, and I think the problems are coming out and into the open for all to not just see but to feel, and not in a warm and fuzzy kind of way but an economic collapse kind of way.
Secondly, yesterday the President also expressed his disapproval of the Fed rate hikes in that CNBC interview.
Some people in the alternative news media are saying that the President is coming out and setting the Fed up to take the blame when the system comes crashing down.
We know the system is going to come crashing down.
I wish the President wouldn’t have been pumping and hyping the economy over the last year and a half, and that he would have simply let the economy come crashing down so we can begin rebuilding, but then again, I’m not a billionaire real estate investor turned TV star turned Patriot then elected President and rightly so.
So maybe there is a plan?
On thing is for sure, however, is that bad news doesn’t just get better over time if nothing is done about it.
I mean, everybody remembers this:
Back on point.
Yesterday President Trump came out swinging against the Fed and a strong dollar, and he did it again today:
China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day – taking away our big competitive edge. As usual, not a level playing field…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 20, 2018
….The United States should not be penalized because we are doing so well. Tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates – Really?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 20, 2018
In other words, the President has doubled-down, come even stronger, and reinforced what he said yesterday!
Friends (and trolls, because honest money is good for all), I’m saying that the President has just forced the top in the dollar, and, by extension, the bottom in gold & silver!
That’s my new call.
So let’s dive into the charts.
First off, the GSR is still within the range I have forecast (78-80):
That said, if the bottom is indeed in, and if this is the start of the rally, the we should see the ratio starting to come down again, and in earnest.
By “the” rally, I’m talking about the rally that finally sees gold break-out above that $1377 (call it $1380) and testing $1400.
Like clockwork, we see the turn in gold:
Assuming the bottom is in, of course.
And we see the turn in silver:
Again, assuming the bottom is in.
If the bottom is in, then palladium will be the only one out of the four precious metals that hasn’t put in 52-week lows:
And that’s encouraging because palladium led the charge last year.
Deja Vu all over again?
Platinum broke below $800 yesterday:
But again, assuming the bottom is in, platinum is already $30 off the lows.
Let’s think about the implications of what Trump said for just a little longer.
I do think that it’s big.
It’s real big, as in bigly.
In fact, I’m sure what he said is so big that, well, this:
— SilverDoctors.com (@SilverDoctors) July 20, 2018
In other words, there is a scramble at the Fed, and tensions mounting.
To raise or not to raise, that is the question.
More on that later.
For now, let’s continue wrapping up the markets.
If the dollar is going to resume it’s fall we should see copper rising:
The question is, however, is copper crashing because the broader markets are coming down?
Copper literally got above a 19.50% decline, so talk about being as close to being in a bear market without technically being in one.
The questions now become, how fast does the dollar resume its fall, and how soon do the broader stock markets start crashing?
If the top is in for the dollar, than oil is about to start climbing again too:
It does look like a pivot that’s formed on the crude oil chart.
To state these points a different way – fundamentals matter. They may not matter for some time, but they always exert themselves.
And, considering the fact that the Exchange Stabilization Fund, which is under the direct control of the President, can intervene in any market it wants to, at any time, and for any reason, including the foreign currency markets, all the President has to do is give the order to weaken the dollar, and voila!
Fundamentally speaking, the dollar is doomed, but technically speaking, the President might have just installed a turbocharger on the dollar’s decline.
Therefore, the markets have yet to price this in, and, they’re still pretty darn complacent:
If this is a tectonic shift, which I think it is, then we will be looking for increased volatility, which I think is coming.
Volatility is good for gold & silver.
The yield on the 10-year note not is in a super tight range right now:
From his Tweet today, we can see that the President is worried about the national debt.
So here’ a question: Which way does that mean interest rates are going from here?
If you said lower, pat yourself on the back.
The real question is for how long are foreign nations just going to keep on financing our excesses and largess?
That’s the topic for another day, but that day of reckoning is coming.
The stock market is just kind of in suspended animation right now:
Think back to that debate video from above, and think about this –
Candidate Trump said that if the Fed raised interest rates, “even just a little”, that the stock market “is going to come crashing down”. Now, you have to back up the video because I started it from a certain timestamp, but it’s there.
It’s worth another listen.
My point is that the Fed has raised interest rates seven times since the Candidate Trump was elected.
Let that sink in – Candidate Trump said raise rates even a little, and the stock market comes crashing down, and the Fed has raised rates seven times!
That’s a little more than a little to me.
Saving the chart in the center of all this attention for last, the dollar index:
Mirror opposite of gold & silver, huh?
Is that the top in the dollar rally?
Looks like it to me.
Finally, ending on a commentary about Marshall Swing’s prediction.
It is the 20th, after all, and I have taken a bunch of slack for posting his work.
And before I being this commentary, let me say that he’s on our side. He’s a good guy deep down.
I’m not buyin’ into the whole Moses thing, and many think he’s a nut for that, but he’s still well-intentioned.
Here’s the thing – many are already probably saying, “ha, the globalists didn’t crash the economy, Marshall loses”.
Well, so far, yeah, but Marshall said between today and next Friday.
Do I believe his theory?
But do I think the globalists can, would, and most importantly will crash the system?
But there’s a broader point I want to make.
Generally speaking, the globalists are not going to bring the system down when it’s during business hours.
I mean, bad things happen during the weekend, and usually on Sundays.
Furthermore, things have happened on Fridays, but on Friday evenings.
Think back to the Turkish Coup a couple years back, and when was it? Yup, Friday evening (and solved by Sunday night, how convenient).
Think back to those 103 missiles President Trump ordered to strike three targets in Syria a couple months back, and when did that happen?
You guessed it – Friday evening (and the “shortest war ever” was over by Saturday afternoon).
So yeah, we’ll see.
Also, since Marshall found out about the total lunar eclipse on the 27th, he’s been leaning more towards that Friday anyways.
It’s just weird how things are happening right now – We have a tectonic shift in the markets – Maybe the Fed or the globalists will pre-preemptively bring the markets down this or next week?
I mean, the Fed’s next “live” (as in with a presser to follow) FOMC isn’t until the very end of September, and that’s a long time to wait and see if they hold or raise on interest rates.
Can the markets stay afloat on their own until then?
What if the Fed raises, in September, and the markets come down shortly after?
The Fed loses and President Trump wins.
Playing devil’s advocate here, it would be in the Fed’s best interest to bring the markets down now, months before raising rates again, wouldn’t it?
Which brings us full circle to Marshall’s prediction.
Finally, there’s the whole powder keg of the Middle East again, ready to literally blow up and quite possibly this evening.
Again, I’m not saying Marshall is correct.
But I also won’t be surprised if the globalists do pull the plug this week or next.
They will pull it sooner or later.
They always do.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.