SD Outlook: There’s a lot of moving parts this week, and it will be critical for gold & silver to at least hold here…
There is something I have noticed as I hone in and develop my theory of Peak Trump.
There is a continual rotation among the President’s support base to keep everybody constantly engaged.
It’s like one of those video games where you play the part of the waiter or waitress, and you have to keep all the customers current and happy.
At one point, the waiter or waitress gets over-run, because it is impossible to keep up, and so will be the decline after Peak Trump.
They are really questions of how fast and how far do we fall?
If we think about Peak Trump as one of those games, the President is the waiter, and all of his supporters are the ones eating at Trump Restaurant.
So what does the President do?
He floats from table to table trying to stay up on everything all at once.
How do we bring that into the real world?
The President floats from support base to support base to always keep them more or less engaged and believing.
Do we see that in the real world?
Yes we do.
All the time.
A few weeks back it was the Trump Putin summit that kept the whole “disparage Russian Collusion and make peace with Russia” supporters engaged.
The vast majority of those supporters also fall into the “The Deep State is out to get Trump with the Russiagate story” supporters, which are always engaged because of the ongoing “investigation”.
Those are also the “Drain the Swamp” suppoorters.
Two weeks back it was the “Trump vs the Fed” supporters that were engaged.
Last week it was the “America First” and “Let’s kick some geo-political butt” supporters engaged due to the Junker meeting with the President.
Last week it was also the “Moar War” supporters that were engaged with the President’s Tweet about Iran:
To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 23, 2018
So who is it going to be this week?
Well, right off the bat, we see it’s the “Build the Wall” supporters that will be engaged:
We must have Border Security, get rid of Chain, Lottery, Catch & Release Sanctuary Cities – go to Merit based Immigration. Protect ICE and Law Enforcement and, of course, keep building, but much faster, THE WALL!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 30, 2018
I lived on the border for nine years, crossed into Mexico dozens of times, and for an alternative theory of mine when it comes to that wall, check out this link.
In addition to the wall talk, we’ll get engagement with the “greatest economy ever” supporters on Friday with the BLS report.
Actually, the “greatest economy ever” supporters are engaged every week, it’s really a question of which other support group will be engaged.
So this week it looks like it will be the “build the wall” supporters and the “greatest economy ever” supporters.
All of this is an integral part of the Peak Trump theory.
He sure does have a lot of plates spinning, doesn’t he?
All of those things the President is doing are the means to the end.
The question is – what is that end?
The faster the decline from the peak, the clearer the end goal becomes.
It really comes down to the question of whose side is the President on?
We see there is a lot of economic data and events to start the week:
Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EST culminates with the release of the FOMC statement for July/August.
Talk about killing two birds with one stone.
And there is no press conference this week, which means that “per tradition” the Fed will hold, and not hike, because I guess it’s not tradition to only hike if there is going to be a press conference so the markets can get pampered about the rate hike.
One of these days the Fed will lose control.
Perhaps the next time they lose control the nation finally understands what a corrupt, immoral, illegitimate, and un-needed institution the Fed is.
That is to say, all we need to know about money is right there in the US Constitution, and we don’t need a Fed telling us how to interpret it.
But I digress.
Regardless, there will be some market movement Wednesday afternoon, which in part has to do with what the statement says in relation to how the black box computer algorithmic programs need re-programming so as to continue to plunder wall street on auto-fire.
The FOMC is the big event in the first part of the week, but it is not the only event.
The bottom line: Look up at the first few days events and see there will be many morning market moving events.
So be on guard.
We see the week does not get any easier as we move through Thursday and Friday:
On Friday the big event is the BLS Jobs Report for July, 2018.
The cartel has near perfect cover to come in and smash the metals because we get the two events the cartel loves the most when it comes to smashing.
The only thing that would make this week even more Pavlovian for the cartel would be if the FOMC statement release was followed by a Powell press conference, which it is not this month.
The commodities are starting the week mixed.
Copper is falling again:
People keep talking about the yield curve, but let’s not lose sight of Dr Copper.
If copper starts crashing again, that’s not a good sign for the markets at all.
Crude oil, however, is poised to start the week at seventy bucks:
Crude oil is still battling the 50-day moving average.
Between the tough talk on Iran and the Saudi oil tanker that was attacked, and Venezuelan oil production plummeting, things could get very interesting in the crude oil market with more of the swings we’ve seen lately.
Last week ended with the Heartbeat of America Index falling below its 50-day moving average.
This week, however, let’s look at the S&P 500:
We’re right there in spitting distance of new all-time highs.
Will we get there?
A lot of it depends on the interpretation from Wednesday’s FOMC statement.
If the economy is painted as “everything is awesome”, then good news (for the economy) could become bad news for the stock market (increased rate hikes).
Of course, we know the economy is not totally awesome, but that’s beside the point.
As such, the VIX is poised to start the week above 13:
This really is one of those pivital weeks.
This is one of those weeks that can set the stage for weeks to come.
For example, the yield on the 10-year might finally get moving:
Early last week it looked like yield was making a run to test 3.0% again, but after last Monday it only spent the rest of the week thinking about it.
The dollar has also been doing some thinking lately.
Call it soul searching between 94 and 95:
President Trump’s forced top in the dollar still holds, and it anything, it looks like the dollar is fading the top.
The metals begin the week mixed as well.
Palladium looks poised to continue consolidation here:
After the four day rip, palladium is finding support above $920.
Platinum, however, well, yeah:
Platinum is having a hard time catching a break, but with the commercials net long and the specs net short on the second to last and on this latest COT Report, platinum might just get that break, and it could start happening at any moment.
Which brings us to gold & silver.
Some say that it is the plan of the commercials to go long and be responsible for the rise in the metals.
Is that the plan?
I don’t know – I mean, wouldn’t it be weird to want the commercials to flip to net long and manipulate the price higher?
I can’t speak for others, but I want the manipulation to end in a manner preferably of epic failure on the COMEX and LBMA, in one of those “failure to deliver” scenarios which gets tossed about so much.
I don’t want price suppression, but I also don’t want manipulation on the upside either.
I want free markets, and a true price discovery mechanism based on the buying and selling, one for one, of physical metal.
Is that too much to ask?
The gold to silver ratio is right there in the range I have forecast for weeks now:
I still think the next rally will show silver outperforming gold.
Silver is up slightly to start the week:
With all the data and events this week, however, and assuming we’re still in the summer doldrums, silver will have it’s work cut out for it.
Yet on the other hand, silver has fallen for seven straight weeks.
Will it fall for an eighth?
We’re due for a gain – even if it’s not the start of the rally.
Gold is also poised to open in the green on this Monday:
Though it is not as pronounced as silver.
And that’s good news – because this only works to support my case for the advance in silver and an ultimate out-performance of silver to gold.
Will gold and silver take off this week?
I don’t think so.
But going back to the commercials flipping and going long – if that is indeed the case, somebody knows the answer to that question.
It’s not me.
I’m not privy to the information.
The cartel hates people like me.
And the question of “when” doesn’t matter anyway.
Because you either have gold & silver at that point.
Or you don’t.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.